When analyzing which pitchers are most likely to surprise or disappoint based on either rankings lists or average live draft position -- making them, essentially, sleepers and busts -- there are several distinct classes. Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw is the top guy (and deservedly so) but he can’t be a sleeper, not based on cost of acquisition. There’s simply no value there. Then there’s Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Clay Buchholz and similar logic takes hold. It's hard to call a guy a bust if so few are interested in him in the first place.
So as my esteemed colleagues Tristan Cockcroft, AJ Mass and I continue to check out the sleepers and busts (click here for the hitters), today we turn our focus to those who make their living throwing the baseball. For my picks I’ll break things out into sections based on the degree of expectations and value because things are different with the pitchers. When a starter gets shelled, he can really hurt your team. If a closer gets shelled, he could lose the role and his value torpedoes. That's much different than it is with most hitters, who traditionally will get more time to prove themselves and, as such, fantasy owners are generally more patient. There’s more overall certainty there.
First, let’s check out the picks for Cockcroft and Mass. Cockcroft has Atlanta Braves right-hander Mike Foltynewicz as a sleeper and Washington Nationals right-hander Tanner Roark as the bust. Mass has New York Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka sleeping and New York Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom busting. Each prediction makes sense. Foltynewicz is a hard thrower with four reasonable pitches and strikeout potential, and he showed flashes of excellence in his age-24 campaign. The Braves added several veteran starters, but Foltynewicz should have a safe role and, health permitting, is a candidate for 175-plus innings. Tanaka’s numbers aren’t a problem -- he was 14th among starters on the Player Rater -- but many view the partial tear in his UCL as a ticking time bomb. He continues to laugh at the notion of Tommy John surgery and made 31 starts last year. Perhaps Mass believes Tanaka can pitch even better.
As for the busts, Roark has been very good two of the past three seasons but overachieved based on his stuff and peripherals in those years. It will be hard for him to be a value pick, even though I think he’s relatively safe and thus deserving of a top-40 starter ranking. There is a floor here, however, and it looks like 2015. The Nationals traded away several top pitching prospects, so perhaps they think Roark is safe as well. As for deGrom, he was cruising along with a 2.29 ERA until mid-August when his elbow barked and ulnar nerve surgery became necessary. The word is that he’s fine now, but I can understand the danger of expecting top-10 performance. I’ve ranked him 17th, so clearly I’m not overly concerned.
As for my starting pitcher picks, let’s separate them into 20-man groups, based on my personal rankings.
In the 1-20 range: Chris Archer, Yu Darvish and Rick Porcello are modest sleepers. Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco can be viewed the other way, though again, it might not show much in the rankings. There’s just more risk with them. Kershaw missed a third of last season with back woes. With most any other pitcher, that would create a buying opportunity, but also set off alarms. He gets universal trust, but I’m taking the under on 30 starts and, let’s face it, I wouldn’t draft him or pay the cost in an auction anyway. Scherzer is still dealing with a knuckle fracture in his pitching ring finger. I’m not terribly worried yet, but in a few weeks if things haven’t improved, I don’t see how we can’t be concerned. Carrasco is very good, with more strikeouts than innings in the past two seasons. However, he’s also fallen short of 200 innings both years, and his ERA has been higher than 3.30. I’ll take that with 200 strikeouts, but I’m no longer predicting the major breakout.
People will be selecting Carrasco over Archer and, based on the Tampa Bay right-hander’s elevated ERA last season, it’s understandable. However, Archer has been durable for three seasons, and I view the 30 home runs from last year as aberrant. I think Archer will be a value pick. It’s the same with Darvish, a renowned top-10 option because of his major strikeout potential in 2014 before Tommy John surgery. He pitched well last year. There seems little risk and great upside. With the defending AL Cy Young winner Porcello, I just think it’s a common and way-too-easy excuse to presume there has to be a major drop-off in his numbers. When I evaluate Porcello and his skills, I don’t see his ugly 2015 season returning. Don’t expect another 22 wins, but he is on a good Red Sox team with a good offense and his strikeout rate is fine. He’s durable. An ERA of 3.40 or so works as a borderline top-20 option.
In the 21-40 range: Zack Greinke, John Lackey, Danny Salazar and Drew Smyly qualify as sleepers, while Kyle Hendricks, Rich Hill and Felix Hernandez certainly bring bust potential. On the good side first, we know how great Greinke can be. He was great in 2015. Yes, he was a Dodger then, but still, his current home ballpark is not in Denver. The skills remain, and an ERA in the 3.50 range seems fairer, with a low WHIP (relative to his ERA) and upside for top-10 numbers. Lackey is solid but gets overlooked because of silly age discrimination, while Salazar reminds me of his colleague Carrasco. They’re good, but at some point we’ll stop expecting greatness. Smyly might never reach 200 innings in a season because of his health, but I’ll take the way-under on another 32 home runs.
Hendricks won the NL ERA title with a 2.13 mark (and how awesome for him) but his skills weren’t all that different from the year prior, when his ERA was 3.95. Chicago’s defense helped. His fielding independent pitching those two years: 3.36 and 3.20. All I'm saying is that a lot of people will be disappointed if his ERA flies to 3.50. Hill’s issues are obvious. He made a mere 20 starts last year and, if you do take a chance on him, it would be wise to make sure the rest of your rotation is durable. With Hernandez, yes, it can get worse. It can get a lot worse. It can get better, too, but last season Hernandez and his falling velocity escaped with a 3.82 ERA. His FIP was 4.69. Justin Verlander is about the only fellow I can think in recent memory who shockingly reversed his downfall.
In the 41-60 range: Matt Shoemaker, Joe Ross, Blake Snell and Julio Urias jump out on the sleeper side, while I’ll be avoiding Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Matt Harvey and Aaron Nola. I don’t mean to be pessimistic, but each of that latter quartet dealt with arm or shoulder woes of some sort last season and I’m skeptical they can overcome them -- especially when it’s a shoulder. Shoemaker and Ross can be strikeout options. Snell definitely is, and if he controls the walks, watch out. As for Urias, well, perhaps the Dodgers let him get to 175 innings. If so, watch out!
In the 61-100 range: You can’t be a bust if you’re going off the board this late, but among the sleepers I’ll likely invest in include Foltynewicz, Ivan Nova, Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea, Robert Gsellman, Jeremy Hellickson and Jharel Cotton. They're better than you think.
Relief pitchers (sleepers): Cockcroft chose Nate Jones and Mass went with Edwin Diaz and they are, to stay on theme, different levels of the topic. Jones is the setup man for the White Sox's David Robertson, who could (should?) be traded at some point. Jones is a major strikeout option and one of my top handcuffs. With Diaz, he closed last season but might not be getting enough love as a top-10 option.
My sleeper closers include Cody Allen and Jim Johnson. I don’t see many saves for Andrew Miller in Cleveland as Allen keeps the role. While there are younger, harder-throwing arms in Atlanta, I think the team is better than people realize and Johnson keeps the role. He probably saves 40 games, too. As for setup men, I see saves in the future for Matt Bush, Kyle Barraclough, Addison Reed (more than a few, actually), Cam Bedrosian and Corey Knebel.
Relief pitchers (busts): Cockcroft selected Sam Dyson and Mass highlighted Craig Kimbrel, and I’m in agreement with both. Dyson was effective but fortunate last season, and on the Rangers, Bush is simply better. Kimbrel’s slow decline might seem masked by his highest strikeout rate since 2012, but oh, the free passes. Nobody is saying the proverbial bottom drops out right away on Kimbrel, and he can probably fake his way to 35 saves, but I’ve been trying to trade him in a dynasty league and there’s a reason full value isn’t being offered back.
My picks for closers I’ll avoid are Wade Davis, A.J. Ramos and Brandon Maurer. The October-bound Cubs have no reason to push Davis if there’s any hint or arm woes, and there sure were last year. Watch Hector Rondon save double-digits. Ramos has to fend off several options in the Miami bullpen capable of closing, and he’s a walker. That's a bad combination. Meanwhile, I don’t know if San Diego’s intriguing Carter Capps will be ready to close in April, but I can’t see any Padre getting more than 25 saves. That’s a dreadful rotation and a potential 100-loss squad. Finally, perhaps it’s just a hunch, but forget everything I said about investing in Dellin Betances a year ago. He’s not getting saves for the Yankees and watch his innings and overall effectiveness drop after an eventful winter. What a shame! He could have been a 45-save guy with 120 Ks. Perhaps someplace else he can be.