Reasonable minds can debate how the terms “sleeper” and “bust” should be applied in fantasy baseball -- but really, it’s all about value. Last season, for example, outfielders Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen were notable first-round busts and poor values, though they weren’t exactly terrible. We didn’t know this in March, of course, but it would have looked pretty silly to disseminate our rankings with Harper located one round later than Jackie Bradley Jr. and McCutchen ranked after Cesar Hernandez.
Still, perhaps some of us liked Bradley and Hernandez more than others, making them our personal sleepers. (This year, they’re anything but.) There are countless hitters who I prefer either significantly more or less than where they appear either in the rankings of my colleagues or in their likely placements in the average ESPN live draft. That value adjustment is what should drive those key terms regarding comparative value. I’ll likely select Manuel Margot before his established value. Thus, he’s a sleeper. That’s how it works!
Today we’ll go position by position covering the hitters. My esteemed ESPN colleagues Tristan Cockcroft and AJ Mass share their sleepers and busts as well. Some of the names they provided surprise me, but I’m open-minded enough to consider all possibilities!
Two out of the three votes here are for the Colorado youngster while the other is for, well, Vogt. Yes, it’s pronounced the same. Oakland’s Vogt is 32, and his 2016 certainly didn’t look like his All-Star season from one year prior, as his numbers fell across the board. However, I like the selection. Vogt is likely to go undrafted in most 10- and 12-team formats simply due to his age and the fact people want to believe only the most recent season, but the skills remain. He walked and whiffed less but made more contact, and needs to be platooned. Still, a return to 2015 is possible. In fact, Vogt was nearly as good as McCann on last year’s Player Rater, but McCann, now a member of the Houston Astros, is the far bigger name. Reputation often derails common sense. Murphy’s upside is clear and I suspect if he gets 400 plate appearances he would bring more power -- and value -- than each of the busts.
With Contreras, the problem there is how manager Joe Maddon is likely to deploy him. Let’s say he’s named the starter over Miguel Montero. However, you can't forget that Kyle Schwarber is in the catching picture, too, at least in theory. Roughly a third of Contreras’ plate appearances last season came in the outfield, but that seems unlikely to continue -- and we know catchers are generally handled differently, seeing more time off, even when they are young. Frankly, I think both Contreras and Yankees star Gary Sanchez will be drafted too generously. Neither made my overall top 100. With Ramos, if he ends up in the top 10 on draft day at the position, then I agree with Cockcroft. He’s missing at least half the season, I think, and while it makes him a prime in-season pick-up, it scares me that he’s a catcher with a shredded knee.
One of the sleepers at this position comes off his first 30-HR, 100-RBI campaign, and since I think he can do it again but the ADP isn’t likely to match the optimism, Napoli fits here. Again, nobody’s saying he’s better than Pujols or Davis but -- well, last year he did out-earn Davis and came awfully close to Pujols. Joseph is Philadelphia’s starter and the power looks legit. I like that sleeper selection because 30 home runs don’t seem overly optimistic. Thames is back in the USA after super-productive years in Korea and the reason why I’d choose Napoli over him is because he’s done it before in the major leagues. Thames might do it. I suspect Thames, being the relative unknown, will surely go earlier in drafts, which could negate being a value pick.
Each of the three bust candidates possess clear flaws for this season, but Pujols is likely to end up on some of my teams because I think owners will be too hasty in writing him off. He’s likely to miss some or most (or perhaps even all) of April as he rehabilitates from foot surgery, but he wasn’t exactly spry in 2016 and those numbers work. To me, that creates a clear buying opportunity since the production isn’t a major concern. No, he doesn’t hit for average, but the power remains. Pujols was a top-10 first baseman on the Player Rater in 2016, and I think he can do it again. It’s not that I blindly overlook players approaching dangerous ages when production typically falls, but if Pujols falls outside the top 100, he becomes a bargain. With Davis, the issue is batting average and I’m not going to pretend to predict with certainty if he ends up at .220 or .255. With Bell, however, I’m fairly certain it’s Joe Mauer-type power from him at this stage, and nobody’s drafting Mauer. Bell will be selected because his reputation exceeds reality.
Perhaps all Baez and Travis need in order to emerge as fantasy stars is opportunity and health, respectively, and of course that’s easier said than done. Then again, it’s easy to see how both end up in the top 10 at the position. Travis sure seems brittle, but he’s also well off the radar compared to Baez, who reached double digits in power and speed and was watched by all in late October. With Odor, while most will focus on the 33 home runs, it’s tough to ignore the 19 walks. That’s a month of free passes for Joey Votto. It’s hard to hit for so much power with so little discipline and succeed, and only one other player in history ever had a season with 30 homers and fewer than 20 walks. I believe Odor could only be a sleeper if so many fantasy owners believe his season was a fluke, which is certainly possible. And let’s be clear -- it’s not like Baez and Travis are known for plate discipline, either.
With the busts, perhaps my selection is the lone one truly needing an explanation. After all, Segura’s 2016 season came out of nowhere and he’s left a hitter-friendly ballpark for Seattle. That's an easy sell. His double play partner Cano is certainly not young in baseball years, and perhaps one of these days he’ll cease hitting. I still view him as a solid third-round pick. Others will view Gordon as a third-round pick and while I won’t hide a personal philosophy of avoiding powerless hitters in early rounds, it’s not like Gordon is so safe for anything but stolen bases or, for that matter, another suspension. Granted, he’ll likely hit better than .268, but worse than the .333 he achieved in 2015. Plus, though his Player Rater presence will be fine due to the steals, I think he’s a risk and I’d much rather focus on accruing balanced stolen base assets, or simply going the Rajai Davis/Jarrod Dyson route after Round 20.
The name that jumps out here is the Cubs’ Russell, for most view him as a rising star. I fought for him a year ago and on a superficial level he was excellent, though he was only the No. 20 shortstop on the Player Rater. Russell figures to keep improving, but to what level? He made strides in terms of K-rate, but isn’t likely to be a .300 hitter, and he doesn’t steal bases. It will be tough to improve on 95 RBI, too. I like Russell but his perceived value might be generous, which is how bust status makes perfect sense. Again, players from the World Series tend to get overrated the following season. Nunez, meanwhile, is an obvious choice after he overachieved in Minnesota and isn’t truly guaranteed regular duty with the Giants. Andrus is annually overrated as he contributes in just one category, and he doesn’t contribute as many steals as most realize.
On the sleeper side, Diaz projects as a 25-homer guy with his walk and strikeout rates and he might have approached that number had a broken thumb not cost him a month. I’m viewing him as a potential top-10 shortstop. Arcia is a wise choice, too. Yes, he struggled as a rookie but at 21, most hitters aren’t quite formed. Arcia should at least steal bases. Semien smacked 27 home runs and it’s hard to see how much more growth is there, but I suspect Mass views him a bit like Odor in that so many view his season as fluky that his ADP might not reflect how valuable and repeatable the statistics actually were.
Everyone knew about Sano’s prodigious strikeout rate from 2015 so it shouldn’t have been a great surprise when his batting average fell 33 points. Still, this is a guy with the potential to blast 40 home runs this season. The power is legit. Even if he’s “only” Khris Davis -- which isn’t actually so bad -- he’ll be a bargain for where he’s likely to be drafted. Drury could end up as Arizona’s starting second baseman, though for now he’s eligible solely at third base. Hey, if Lamb struggles like he did in the second half, Drury could end up at third and flash his power. With Ramirez, Mass continues what I believe is his trend of choosing someone viewed as a likely overachiever when in fact -- and I agree with him -- he’s probably legit.
Meanwhile, Frazier, Lamb and Beltre combined for 101 home runs in 2016. I disagree with the Beltre pick. Sure, he’s also not a young man, but he’s really not showing signs of slowing down at all. Frazier’s batting average continues to nosedive as his power rises and his stolen base output remains steady. I’ve got Frazier and Beltre more on the sleeper side, but when the bottom falls for each it will be painful. As for Lamb, oh, those second half numbers!
We’re going young for sleepers and busts at this position and let’s remember most rookies or sophomores who didn’t succeed as expected tend to be generously regarded. I’ve written about Benintendi and while I love the statistical future, I’m not sure the power and speed will be there right away. Still, I can’t argue the pick. It simply depends on whether it’s Round 8 or 14 when he ends up being taken. The Minnesota duo of Kepler and Buxton disappointed last season, but the former brings intriguing power and middle-of-the-order upside while the latter is, realistically, someone who can hit 20 home runs and steal 50 bases if he figures things out at the plate. He can be that good. He’s worth a shot in the middle rounds if the rest of your outfield (and really your whole offense) is stable.
The busts might seem peculiar here, but each makes sense. Dahl isn’t guaranteed a starting job with Colorado and, even if he gets it, he’s likely to hit near the bottom of the order. That didn’t stop Boston’s Bradley from emerging as a star, but again, will Dahl end up in the eighth round or the 14th? That’s the entire question and, like Benintendi, knowing aggressive fantasy owners who forget about established veterans if they struggle but excuse younger options, Round 8 seems more likely. I think it’s tough to overlook Schwarber’s flaws and I take the under on 500 plate appearances, for various reasons. One, he’s an injury risk for sure. His leg injuries were extensive and let’s face it, he’s not a good outfielder. Two, catching would be nice for his eligibility, but I doubt he makes it to the ten games he needs to get there for your teams until June or later. And three, the fact he’s a potential leadoff hitter only augments the hype. He likely gets platooned against lefties. He’s not expected to hit for high average. He’ll provide power and discipline and score runs leading off, but I can get that after Round 10. With Piscotty I admit I don’t see a problem unless he’s viewed as someone about to statistically explode. I think he can repeat his 2016.