Note: To view Eric's latest tiered rankings for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, check out the Insider Cheat Sheet.
A year ago at this time, wide receiver was the hot fantasy football position, with high-end options to draft before any running backs and enough depth that it was pretty much assumed one’s flex spot wouldn’t be a running back. Oh, how things change! Sure, wide receiver remains a strong fantasy position, of course, but several high-end options have become question marks, and by the middle rounds, it just doesn’t feel the same as last year, creating more balance with the never-forgotten running backs.
As a result, a tiered system for wide receivers seems even more relevant than a year ago, when one could do little wrong and end up with usable options no matter what. Perhaps that’s still the case to some degree, but with the many rookie running backs and several new veterans likely finding immediate opportunity, it’s more of a mix. Regardless, one might notice more drop-off from tier to tier at wide receiver. I certainly did. We’ve covered quarterback and running back and we continue now with wide receiver.
Tier 1: Top of Round 1
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The emergence of Arizona’s David Johnson as a monster pass-catcher and the fact Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell isn’t burdened by a suspension has them generally as the top two overall selections, and Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott was often in the same tier prior to news of his suspension, but then it’s this fantastic foursome of speedy, reliable, consistent options. Evans joined the tier after getting back into double-digit touchdowns. It’s tough to complain about these players; Brown did miss a game last season and his catches and yards fell, but there’s little reason for worry. Jones fell short of 16 games yet again and lost his offensive coordinator this offseason, but remains elite.
Tier 2: Late Round 1
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
No real surprises here, unless one includes Thomas, who excelled as a rookie and should see even more targets since the other starting wide receiver he played with was dealt to New England. Thomas and Drew Brees figure to put up major numbers. Nelson’s first season post-ACL tear saw elite production, though pessimists can point to a steep reduction in yards per target and advanced age as worries.
Tier 3: Rounds 2-3
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks
Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
There have been developments in this tier since last season. First of all, Bryant, great as he is, has played in 22 games the past two seasons. Doesn’t mean he can’t play all 16 this season, but there’s a trend here. By the way, it’s not mean to call him a WR2. Some might also be surprised by Hopkins’ inclusion, coming off his awful season, but he’s not awful. Here’s to hoping quarterback Tom Savage is more competent than Brock Osweiler. And Cooper gets a lofty tier despite the fact he hasn’t been his own team’s top wide receiver either of his two seasons. Expectations are high.
Tier 4: Round 4
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
Michael Crabtree, Raiders
Brandin Cooks, Patriots
Now we start seeing teammates, starting with two Tom Brady options and the second -- or first, really -- Derek Carr target. Cooks will put up numbers for sure, probably fewer catches than Edelman but likely more scores. And remember, we’re talking about PPR formats, so mock Fitzgerald all you like for being 72 years old, but in this scoring system, since he led the NFL in receptions and certainly can do so again, he was the No. 11 wide receiver. He and Carson Palmer aren’t quite done yet. A return to the slot could also finally get Tate, who has three consecutive seasons of 90-plus catches, into triple digits. I mean, the Lions can’t rely on the run! C’mon!
Tier 5: Top of Round 5
Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles
Terrelle Pryor Sr., Washington Redskins
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Davante Adams, Packers
This is the tier in which the concerns really begin, because these players are likely to be selected as definite fantasy starters, and look, they probably will be. After all, Jeffery and Robinson have proved to be awesome. Pryor and Adams did it last year. But ... Jeffery misses games. Pryor switched teams. Robinson’s quarterback is woefully erratic. Adams, like Pryor, has done it only once. I rank them in this order, and as flex options at the least, but it hardly means they’re as safe as we want them to be.
Tier 6: Round 5
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos
Sammy Watkins, Los Angeles Rams
Each would presume to deserve a more glamorous tiered fate, based on rankings and production in prior seasons, so I admit they could be considered steals at this point. Landry doesn’t score many touchdowns, but he catches many passes, and Jay Cutler doesn’t need to be in particularly good shape to keep Landry busy. With Allen, it’s all about health, or lack thereof. Sanders just kinda gets forgotten for WR2 purposes, but he was nearly as productive as his teammate Thomas last season. Watkins loses value in the trade from Buffalo since the quarterback play with his new team is iffy at best, and Watkins still deals with foot problems.
Tier 7: Round 6
Jamison Crowder, Redskins
Donte Moncrief, Colts
Willie Snead, Saints
Tyrell Williams, Chargers
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings
Like previous tiers, there’s a relative mix of upside and reliability here, which will be a theme moving ahead. Williams is a fellow to watch as we await more injury updates on his teammate with the same last name, the top-10 overall pick who might not even play in 2017.
Tier 8: Round 7
Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Marshall, Giants
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers
Quarterback play will be a key for these guys to a large degree. The 49ers expect to have a better passing game than 2016. How can’t they? The Panthers believe Cam Newton is healthy and Benjamin, who might not be in the best shape of his life, can return to his rookie numbers. With this ranking and tier, I tend to disagree. And Marshall has more than proved himself over the years, but it’s going to be tough for another Giants playmaker to be great with Beckham demanding and deserving targets.
Tier 9: Round 8
DeSean Jackson, Buccaneers
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
Martavis Bryant, Steelers
It just kind of worked out this way that the three receivers perhaps most capable of making super-big plays downfield but lacking volume get thrown together in the same tier. What a coincidence! Jackson joins another team and his breakaway speed and deep-threat presence is, as with the others, hardly questioned, but these are PPR tiers and in nine seasons Jackson has topped the relatively low bar of 62 receptions once. It’s not likely to double this season. Hill was stunning as a rookie with his double-digit touchdowns, but his quarterback didn’t find him enough and certainly not enough downfield. And oh yeah, the touchdowns will be tough to reproduce. We’ve seen Bryant marvel as well, when he’s eligible to perform, but if he’s not piling on touchdowns, those in PPR formats likely will be disappointed.
Tier 10: Round 9
Jeremy Maclin, Baltimore Ravens
John Brown, Cardinals
Perhaps they don’t really warrant their own special tier, since there’s not much other than durability concerns tying them together, but for me they represent the end to my sleeper flex options. Maclin should be better than last year. Brown should be better as well. We’ve seen them do it. Opportunity is there. Eh, maybe it’s just me.
Tier 10: Revenge of the Titans
Rishard Matthews, Titans
Eric Decker, Titans
Ask three fantasy team owners on the street which of these Titans they are most likely to select and one might get three different answers. Of course, more than one might not be aware Decker is a Titan. I placed the rookie first and the proven touchdown guy with injury concerns last but can be swayed in any direction. After all, it’s Round 9. Why not?
Tier 11: Rounds 11-12
Cameron Meredith, Chicago Bears
Adam Thielen, Vikings
Mike Wallace, Ravens
John Ross, Bengals
Zay Jones, Bills
Jordan Matthews, Bills
Randall Cobb, Packers
Corey Coleman, Browns
DeVante Parker, Dolphins
Pick a name, any name. These guys aren’t sure things, of course, but that doesn’t mean they’re bereft of upside. After all, these are the first WR options for the Bears and Browns, teams lacking, shall we kindly point out, Hall of Fame quarterback play, and there’s reasonable debate whether Thielen, Wallace and Parker will be the most productive options for their teams. Hey, we still don’t have a Jet!
Tier 12: Rounds 13-14
Anquan Boldin, Bills
Marvin Jones Jr., Lions
Josh Doctson, Redskins
J.J. Nelson, Cardinals
Sterling Shepard, Giants
Curtis Samuel, Panthers
Ted Ginn Jr., Saints
We start to see more rookies by this point, and it’s always possible Samuel and second-year guy Doctson are future stars. Perhaps even 2017 stars. For that reason, depending on the construction of your wide receiver corps, one might decide guys like Boldin, lacking upside, should be left on free agency. If Samuel goes statistically nuts in Week 1, it might be too late to acquire him.
Tier 13: The end, be it final rounds or free agency
Mike Williams, Chargers
Kevin White, Bears
Torrey Smith, Eagles
Braxton Miller, Texans
Kenny Stills, Dolphins
Taylor Gabriel, Falcons
Robert Woods, Rams
Tavon Austin, Rams
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
Allen Hurns, Jaguars
We have a Jet! Hey, someone has to catch the passes. We also have the final top-10 wide receiver from the NFL draft in Williams showing up, but the issue is whether he will show up on the field. Could be 16 games. Could be six. Could be zero. Just make sure to secure him in dynasty formats. If asked for a potential breakout selection I’ll probably go with Miller. Big body, golden opportunity and the quarterback play has to be better.