Note: To view Eric's latest tiered rankings for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, check out the Insider Cheat Sheet.
Unlike the quarterback position, which has a useful strategy all to itself, fantasy owners are rarely going to look at the running backs from their draft and claim they’re tangibly set at the position. In fact, halfway through the average draft, most owners will look at their running backs -- and the many problematic options lurking -- and come away unimpressed.
That’s how things tend to work these days at running back, as injuries, timeshares and so much general uncertainty make constructing a team virtual guesswork. Fantasy owners are no longer directed into coveting the position in early rounds, though it’s best to get a decent balance at the position.
Hopefully this blog entry on following a tiered system can help.
Obviously, we cannot know who your early running backs are, so once one hits the middle rounds, owners should be prepared to follow their own instincts, get a proper mix of reasonable options and, as always, avoid reaching.
Value is key. Draft six running backs and hope three can be weekly plays. Sure, we’d all hope for more, but this is running back, so realism is warranted.
With quarterback tiers in the rear-view mirror and wide receivers pending later this week, here is a look at my running back tiers.
Tier 1: Top of Round 1
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
There used to be a "big three" at this position, but then one of them, the youngest, was suspended. Speaking of suspensions, Bell isn't the safest first-round pick based on previous ones and his injury history, but he's so statistically awesome most simply overlook that angle. It's why Johnson could, in theory, boast his own top tier.
Tier 2: Top of Round 2
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans
One could debate the overall placement in comparison to wide receivers, and it would make perfect sense. McCoy and Gordon could very well be first-round choices, and nobody would argue. This is a rather large tier, but for each one, there’s some degree of concern. The concern will only grow later. McCoy and Gordon probably see their touchdowns decline. Freeman and Murray could share touches with teammates more than last season. Howard isn’t a pass-catcher, and these are PPR tiers. But the running back position as a whole is a mess, so the Tier 2 guys remain safe fantasy starters.
Tier 3: Late Round 2
Really, Tier 2 could have two more players. I’m just a bit more scared about these fellows than the others. Miller’s touches were up, but his yards per carry and receptions were not. The Texans could easily scale back his touches to what we saw in his Miami days to get better production. Ajayi had an interesting season replacing Miller. The Dolphins didn’t even dress him Week 1. Then he had to play. Then he had a trio of 200-yard rushing performances but was otherwise quiet. His workload is also in question, and by the way, even if it’s Tom Savage and Jay Cutler as the respective quarterbacks, does that help these guys?
Tier 4: Round 3
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Gurley is the veteran of the group and the one coming off the rough season, but Jared Goff and the offensive line figure to improve, making his life easier. Then we’ve got three rookies. Fournette probably won’t catch many passes. McCaffrey figures to catch many passes, but the overall touches could be problematic. And Mixon really might do just about everything, so his upside trumps the others, in theory. Whatever the case, I like all three quite a bit, as shown here. Rookie running backs with great opportunity can do great things, so don’t be afraid to reach a little.
Tier 5: Round 4
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders
Each of these veterans enters a crossroads season. Crowell is better statistically than most realize, but it’s worth pointing out the club has another running back to catch passes. The Saints brought in a future Hall of Famer in Adrian Peterson, who might or might not be too old to star again, to make Ingram’s situation muddled, but again, the numbers should still be there. As for Lynch, coming out of retirement to a solid situation with a winning team and offense, well, at least he didn’t get hurt or banged around last season by linebackers. He should, in theory, be healthy and motivated.
Tier 6: Round 5
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts
Last season, Gore just missed the top 10 at running back, and Hyde would have made it had he played 16 games, but there are varying opinions about each moving ahead. Gore is not young. Hyde is not durable. Each of their teams brought in potentially meaningful reinforcements. At least those guys are not suspended for potentially six games, like Elliott, who I blogged about separately explaining his new ranking. For Cook, he is the potentially meaningful reinforcement for Peterson and figures to see immediate opportunities. These might still be RB2 options, but in a perfect running back world, they would be treated more as flex choices. If only fantasy owners had the luxury.
Tier 7: Round 6
Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers
Danny Woodhead, Baltimore Ravens
Some unique situations here, but each guy is obviously capable of catching passes from the backfield. Montgomery was a wide receiver when last season began but also averaged 5.9 yards per rush. Just give him the ball! I'd like to see Powell get the ball more as well, but wow, the Jets’ offense might be a problem. The Ravens could also have issues, but Woodhead is a proven PPR star, at least when he’s healthy.
Tier 8: Round 7
Spencer Ware, Kansas City Chiefs
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
There are 1,000-yard rushers and starters here, so let’s call this good value for several of these players. Then again, there is downside. Ware and Stewart weren’t so great last season, and neither is a lock to hold off hotshot rookies in their respective backfields. Lacy has had chances and joins a new team, but he isn’t expected to catch passes. Coleman catches passes, and certainly should threaten Freeman’s touches. And then there’s Perkins, who isn’t held in higher esteem, because his role remains a question and he isn’t expected to catch many passes. This seems like a tier in which one or two players could really outperform tepid expectations.
Tier 9: Round 8
Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots
LeGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles
Two of these fellows would seem to have fallen way too far. Anderson, for all the promising talk and generous draft picks spent on him, has still never achieved even 900 rushing yards in a season, is entering Year 5, and is no lock to hold a starting job. Take a chance this late, there’s little downside. The others are somewhat connected, since Blount left the Patriots for the Eagles, and few expect the same level of production. Similarly, few expect Gillislee to replace Blount’s production. None of these guys figures to catch passes, which is a problem in PPR scoring unless many touchdowns are scored.
Tier 10: Rounds 9-10
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
Darren McFadden, Dallas Cowboys
C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions
Duke Johnson Jr., Cleveland Browns
Rob Kelley, Washington Redskins
Jacquizz Rodgers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints
Quite a mix of options here, including several sets of teammates. Think you know what the Lions or Buccaneers will end up doing? It might not matter. Health and off-field issues cloud these pictures as well. Hunt might not steal the job from Ware this summer, but he should make it interesting. And drafting Peterson this late might seem like a gift from above, since we’ve seen the former Viking surprise before, but Ingram is really good and the Saints have many weapons.
Tier 11: Rounds 11-12
James White, New England Patriots
Matt Forte, New York Jets
Terrance West, Baltimore Ravens
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots
There certainly could be a starter or two lurking here, but upside seems blunted, unless it’s Henry. If Murray gets hurt, Henry could star. West likely starts for Baltimore, but Woodhead should play quite a bit. Rookies are always dangerous, and Mixon could falter in Cincinnati, deeming the former timeshare of Hill/Bernard relevant again. Of course, if I believed that, they’d be five rounds higher in this space.
Tier 12: Rounds 13-14
Jamaal Charles, Denver Broncos
Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins
Shane Vereen, New York Giants
Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings
Joe Williams, San Francisco 49ers
Samaje Perine, Washington Redskins
Charles Sims, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars
Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos
A former top-five fantasy pick and a 1,000-yard rusher from 2015 highlight this tier, but circumstances have certainly changed for Charles and Murray. Charles might not even make the Broncos. Murray has battled an ankle injury and figures to back up the rookie Cook. There are pass-catchers lurking here for fill-in service, like Thompson and Vereen, but there’s little chance they burst into top-20 options.
Tier 13: The rest
DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders
Jalen Richard, Oakland Raiders
Wendell Smallwood, Philadelphia Eagles
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
Tim Hightower, San Francsico 49ers
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins
Lance Dunbar, Los Angeles Rams
Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots
D’Onta Foreman, Houston Texans
James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
Could one of these likely undrafted fantasy options turn into a valuable asset? Well of course they can! Happens every year! Several rookies are here, and perhaps they simply need opportunity to be great, including the Green Bay, Houston and Pittsburgh options at the end. Dallas’ Elliott should be great again, but should injury or suspension get in the way, McFadden gets the luxury of running behind that offensive line. And Oakland’s Lynch certainly isn’t young, and his backups are likely to be on the free-agent waiver wire in September.