<
>

How far should suspended Elliott drop in fantasy drafts?

play
Berry: Be ready to reach for Darren McFadden (2:17)

Matthew Berry sees the Cowboys sticking with a strong running game while Ezekiel Elliott is suspended this season. (2:17)

Fantasy football owners with Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott already on their teams, whether they had already drafted for 2017 or had him secured in a dynasty or keeper format, were dealt a jolt Friday afternoon when the second-year player was levied a six-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. Elliott is expected to appeal, but for now we must assume the talented player who finished his rookie season second in season scoring at his position and fifth overall won’t be eligible to play until Week 8, since the Dallas bye falls in that span.

There’s a value to every player and certainly is with Elliott, but in this case there’s a really good chance I’ll have no shares of Elliott on my teams, because I simply do not have interest in waiting for half a season -- remember, December is mainly playoffs in fantasy leagues -- for anyone in which the acquisition cost will be significant. And Elliott’s price is going to remain too high because nobody knows in August how they’ll feel waiting in October. Elliott was obviously super productive as a rookie and there was little reason to believe his statistics couldn’t be repeated. But now, of course, they can’t be.

In fantasy we sometimes set aside ethical reasons to avoid a player accused of heinous acts, but on statistics alone I still struggled with leaving Elliott among my top-20 running backs at all, and the reason he makes it is because I can’t find 20 running backs to place in my top-20 in the first place. There’s just no depth. There’s obvious uncertainty at the back end of that crew, but compare Elliott to 34-year-old Indianapolis Colts veteran Frank Gore, for example. In Weeks 8 and after, of course we’d all prefer Elliott. He’s a better player. His team runs the ball effectively. He’s not 34. But those first seven weeks are a problem and Gore did finish the 2016 season as fantasy’s No. 12 running back, and in PPR!

Of course, others would argue the first seven weeks aren’t a problem if you’ve got Elliott’s backup, and while former Oakland Raiders lightning rod Darren McFadden has certainly disappointed in the past, he rushed for 1,089 yards in 2015 for these Cowboys. Dallas has an altered offensive line from last season, but it figures to remain elite. McFadden will see his average live-draft position skyrocket this week, as he’s a potential RB1 for six games, but after that, he’s not so valuable. Deep down I just don’t want to deal with this in a fantasy league.

Some will ask how this is different than what occurred with Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell last season and the answer is he was suspended for the first three games and that’s it. Bell is more risk than people realize with a top-2 overall pick because of the threat of more and lengthier suspensions and also he’s dealt with injuries, but that was still only three games, and three weeks. No teams would be serving a bye week by then, so the pool of options was far greater. This is potentially six games and seven weeks and byes.

For now, Elliott stays in my top-20 running backs just ahead of Gore, who has quite a few difficult defenses to face in the first six weeks, but that’s the line I’m comfortable with. Yes, I would draft a Cleveland Browns running back over Elliott. Yes, I would select three rookie running backs before him. It’s Round 5 and to be honest, I hope Elliott is already off the board in my leagues by then, but the value will be too great to ignore and you’d better hit on a surprise running back or two to get you through the first seven weeks. It’s certainly possible.

McFadden moves up into Ameer Abdullah territory for me, not quite as a top-30 running back but as a player we can probably trust early on, and after that, who knows. After all, the Detroit Lions running back is rarely healthy, but appears so today. It’s Round 8 or 9 by then, and we should all take chances by that point. I do think McFadden is clearly ahead of Alfred Morris on the depth chart. Perhaps Dallas was planning all along to have second-year quarterback Dak Prescott throw the football more, lessening Elliott’s touches in the process, but to answer another question, no, the Elliott suspension does not make me adjust Prescott’s ranking positive or negative.