So, there were more misses than hits. I’ll admit that first.
Last year, when I listed the 10 players I’d be comfortable taking higher than our rankings suggested they were worth, I was all in on John Klingberg. That worked out just fine, as he pushed 60 points. I loved the potential of Martin Jones. He was No. 4 on my list. He nearly led the Sharks to a Stanley Cup. I thought Taylor Hall was undervalued, and his 65 points last season were the second-most of his career.
But man was I wrong about Valeri Nichushkin, Jonathan Drouin and Evander Kane. I don’t even want to talk about Alexander Semin.
I was looking for breakout guys. Guys who might be difference makers in your draft.
This year, in the annual "Guys I’m targeting in Fantasy" blog post, I’m not trying to hit as many home runs, because to win a fantasy league, you need guys who aren’t necessarily exciting but guys you can count on. Jeff Carter is always my favorite example of this. You’re never excited drafting Jeff Carter. But when you’re looking back on your winning fantasy season, you like his 26 goals and 30 assists.
So with that in mind, here’s a look at this year’s 10 players I think are undervalued in the ESPN top 250 rankings, and should be counted on to provide value in their draft spot:
1. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers (No. 13)
You already know McDavid is going to be good but even at No. 13, he’s undervalued.
As a rookie last season, he averaged 1.07 points per game during his injury-shortened campaign. Played out over an 82-game season, that’s 88 points. That’s a total topped only by Patrick Kane and Jamie Benn; he’s going to be even better this season.
“You see something special in this kid,” said Blackhawks forward Marian Hossa. “This guy is going to be so good in this league. ... He’s going to, at one point, overtake this league.”
Hossa has seen a lot of players in his time, and he said he’s never seen quite anyone like McDavid at his age.
McDavid is the best player to enter the league since Sidney Crosby. From Crosby’s first season to his second, he saw his point production jump from 1.26 points per game to 1.52 at 19 years old. It’s not unreasonable to expect similar growth from McDavid. The prediction here is that he outscores Patrick Kane this season and finishes among the top two in points.
2. Jakub Voracek, RW, Philadelphia Flyers (No. 57)
Last season was a rough one for Voracek. He finished with just 11 goals, the lowest since his rookie season. His 55 points were 26 fewer than he scored the previous season. He appeared to struggle under the weight and expectations of a new contract. He was also used differently by new coach Dave Hakstol.
In 2014-15, Voracek started 61.1 percent of his starts in the offense zone. That dropped to 50.6 percent last season. He also saw a significant drop-off in power-play production, scoring just once on the power play after putting up 11 goals on the power play the previous season. I don’t expect Voracek to score just one power-play goal this season.
He also shot just 5.2 percent last season as a whole last season. If he scored at his career average of 9.5 percent, he'd have scored 10 more goals. You can comfortably expect better numbers from him this season.
3. Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg Jets (No. 72)
Scheifele is the No. 23 ranked center on the list, behind players like David Backes and Ryan Kesler. He’ll outscore both of those guys this season. I’d even take him over Jonathan Toews, ranked at No. 49 overall. Remember, we’re trying to pile up goals and assists here, not win a Stanley Cup. All the intangibles Toews brings aren’t translating into your fantasy lineup.
Last season, Scheifele used a slightly inflated 14.9 percent shooting percentage to score 29 goals. That might be hard to duplicate, but he also had 24 more shots last season in 11 fewer games than he had the previous season. He’s entering his prime, and the Jets have even more firepower for opposing teams to watch with the addition of Patrik Laine.
Scheifele finished strong last season and coach Paul Maurice explained that a lot of that had to do with consistent playing time with Blake Wheeler, which should continue to happen. Maurice believes the strong finish Scheifele had is repeatable. He had 27 points in the final 21 games of the season, including 14 goals.
“I’m not worried if he’s going to put that kind of production and be that kind of player for us -- I think it’s going to be there,” Maurice said. “I think he’s that good.”
4. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche (No. 98)
Full disclosure: I have a definite MacKinnon bias. I think he’s a great player who should be much more productive than he is. I can’t explain why anyone with his skill set has never scored more than 24 goals in a season, or why he’s never again reached the points-per-game number he put up in his rookie season, at 0.77.
Perhaps, we find out that the system the Avalanche played was part of the problem. With a new coach, I’m investing in MacKinnon above some of the other centers ranked near him on the edge of the top 100. The Avs controlled 47.1 percent of the even-strength shot attempts when he was on the ice last season, which doesn’t sound good in a vacuum, but it is when you realize it was 4.3 percentage points better than teammates. If the new coaching staff can get him over 50 percent and he can shoot at a rate higher than last season’s 8.6 percent, his numbers should jump.
5. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Columbus Blue Jackets (No. 137)
Bobrovsky is ranked No. 20 among goalies, and that’s fair based on his recent track record. He was the reason Todd Richards got fired last season. Even when the Blue Jackets cleaned up the defensive play under John Tortorella, they couldn’t count on the big save from Bobrovsky. His save percentage has declined every season since his .932 in 2012-13 to his .908 last season.
But I was encouraged by his performance in the World Cup, where he finished with a .930 save percentage. He did all he could to try and beat Canada. He looked like the goalie who won the Vezina Trophy.
I expect the .908 to be the low water mark, and for him to finish somewhere closer to the .920 that he’s averaged in 184 games with the Blue Jackets. If he gets there, he’s in the top half in the league among goalies.
6. Tomas Tatar, LW, Detroit Red Wings (No. 138)
Tatar is the No. 27 ranked left winger, behind guys like Nick Foligno and Justin Abdelkader. Depending whether your league factors in hits and/or penalty minutes, that’s too low.
Tatar saw his ice time drop last season, but was one of the Red Wings' most productive players at even strength when he was on the ice. His 0.84 goals per 60 minutes of even-strength play was No. 2 on the Red Wings -- behind Dylan Larkin -- among players with more than 500 even-strength minutes of play. If he can earn more playing time, he should push 30 goals again, like he did in 2014-15.
7. Jordan Eberle, RW, Edmonton Oilers (No. 149)
He’s going to play a ton with Connor McDavid this season, and his numbers with McDavid are considerably higher than with other players.
When McDavid and Eberle were together last year at even strength, the Oilers averaged 3.29 goals per 60 minutes. That number for Eberle dropped to 2.76 without McDavid.
8. Alex Galchenyuk, LW, Montreal Canadiens (No. 180)
Galchenyuk is ranked behind Mikkel Boedker (No. 164) as a left winger. I can’t imagine a scenario where both are healthy and Boedker out-produces Galchenyuk.
I also like him as a center, and he looked good with Max Pacioretty down the stretch last season. When they played together at even strength, the Canadiens averaged 3.55 goals per 60 minutes. For Pacioretty, that number dropped to 2.42 without Galchenyuk.
Galchenyuk scored 30 goals last season, and is 22 years old. These coming seasons should be the most productive of his career.
9. Patrik Laine, RW, Winnipeg Jets (No. 200)
I just love the upside here. He’s ranked behind other guys listed as right wingers like Mika Zibanejad, Jiri Hudler, Jason Pominville and Cam Atkinson.
To wit, Pominville has totaled 29 goals in the last two seasons combined. Laine will be in that neighborhood this season alone if he’s healthy -- his shot is too good not to get him there.
10. Adam Larsson, D, Edmonton Oilers (No. 242)
Maybe I’m too bullish on the Oilers, but Larsson will get every opportunity to prove his worth in Edmonton.
Larsson’s game doesn’t lend itself to huge offensive numbers, but the move to Edmonton and playing with their skilled, young forwards should mean he eclipses the 30-point mark for the first time in his career.