The team tables on the draft floor are arranged according to the draft order. That meant in Florida in June that the Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs were placed right next to each other.
The proximity allowed two former OHL general managers the opportunity to exchange the occasional glance with a laugh as picks were made. Carolina assistant GM Mike Vellucci, formerly the GM of the Plymouth Whalers, and Toronto assistant GM Mark Hunter, formerly of the London Knights, shared similar philosophies while building junior teams. Those philosophies have been promoted to the NHL, where they both have helped stock previously thin farm systems.
“We were laughing back and forth. Our draft picks were similar in the OHL. If I looked at his draft, he was taking a guy I wanted and I was taking guys he wanted. We were similar in theories,” Vellucci said on Monday. “Hunts does a great job. He works hard.”
The hard work is paying off for both of them already. On Tuesday, ESPN Insider prospect guru Corey Pronman released his organizational farm system rankings, and no teams made a bigger jump from last year than the Maple Leafs and the Hurricanes.
Edmonton was No. 1 because of Connor McDavid. That’s one way to jump 12 spots. Another is sheer quantity.
Toronto jumped from No. 17 to No. 2 because of high-end prospects like Mitch Marner and William Nylander, but also because of the depth the Maple Leafs are building by utilizing the complementary talents of Hunter and assistant GM Kyle Dubas.
Carolina made a pretty remarkable jump from No. 26 to No. 11, also a 15-spot improvement. The improvement was identical between Toronto and Carolina along with the strategy. Hoard draft picks.
In 2013, the Hurricanes only made four draft picks. That number jumped to nine this season.
“I don’t know the last time we had nine picks. We had a lot of picks and we’ve accumulated a lot of picks over the last couple years. That stands out. And we got some quality players with those picks,” Vellucci said.
Even with the volume of prospects pumped into the system, the biggest impact for Carolina came when Noah Hanifin slipped to No. 5. While there was trade chatter on the picks leading up to Carolina’s, there weren’t many calls made to the Carolina table when the Hurricanes were on the clock. Perhaps that’s because they made it clear they were taking Hanifin if he was available.
“For us, we had a plan and we stuck to it,” Vellucci said. “If he was there, we were definitely not considering moving him. We knew that when he was there, we were keeping him. That was the guy.”
The Hanifin pick further deepens a Carolina prospect pool loaded on defense. They already have a burgeoning franchise defenseman in Justin Faulk. In Hanifin, Vellucci sees a young defenseman who is a mix of Derian Hatcher and Kevin Hatcher. Last year, the Hurricanes selected defenseman Haydn Fleury with the No. 7 overall pick and Vellucci took exception to Pronman’s assertion that Fleury had a down year last year.
“I would take it as opposite of that,” Vellucci said. “He was just here at development camp. I’ve seen a world of difference in his maturity and development physically and mentally. He showed dramatic improvement on off ice conditioning among all of our prospects. That shows somebody who wants it and wants to make the team this year.”
It bodes well for the rebuild being orchestrated by GM Ron Francis in Carolina, and the same can be said for Toronto.
The Maple Leafs' draft was fascinating for two reasons. One was the players selected, highlighted by the Mitch Marner selection.
“They went skill-heavy; they didn’t care about size. That’s the way Hunts drafts,” said Vellucci.
The second was their aggressive pursuit of trading down to stockpile more picks. Toronto spun the first-round pick (No. 24) acquired from the Predators in the Cody Franson deal in a deal with the Flyers that netted them the No. 29th and No. 61st overall picks in the draft.
Toronto then traded the No. 29 pick to the Blue Jackets for the No. 34 and No. 68 overall picks. The trade was out of character for the Blue Jackets, an organization also known for stockpiling draft picks.
According to another team executive, the Maple Leafs were aggressively working the phones to accumulate even more picks than the ones they eventually got.
“Their whole draft strategy was purely quantitative in nature,” an NHL source said. “I don’t know if it’s a trend or more transparency or more quantitative data that shows for sure that it’s a sound strategy. It’s something we talked about in our organization.”
According to one analytics expert who has studied the draft, there is a statistical drop-off after the top 10 in terms of probability of drafting an NHL player. The drop-off between picks No. 10 and 30 is not as significant.
“Once you get to the third round, that’s where the strategy of trading down is really a no-brainer statistically,” he said.
Even so, teams continue to trade up because they feel they’ve identified a player sure to make the NHL even if odds suggest otherwise.
“Historically, teams that have traded up and the success they’ve had is not a good track record,” he said. “It’s a trap.”
It’s a trap the Maple Leafs worked to expose with the fruits of their labor a significant jump in the farm system rankings.
The warning from another executive is that making a high number of picks isn’t enough. Development is just as an important part of the process.
Teams have stockpiled picks in the recent past without corresponding success on the ice.
In 2010, the Florida Panthers selected 13 players, with only Erik Gudbranson and Nick Bjugstad emerging as the only impact players at the NHL level from that draft for the Panthers.
The following year, the Panthers selected ten players and it’s starting to look like only Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trocheck will emerge as useful NHL players, although there’s still hope for second-rounder Rocco Grimaldi.
Even with all the picks in their system, the Panthers are just No. 22 in Pronman’s rankings.
“Having 13 or 14 picks in one draft is not going to help unless you develop them,” said the Eastern Conference executive.
The New York Islanders also had a period of draft pick stockpiling that is paying off better than Florida’s. In 2008, the Islanders made 13 picks and it pumped in players like Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic, Kirill Petrov, Matt Donovan, Kevin Poulin, Matt Martin and Jared Spurgeon. The Islanders followed that draft with a 2009 draft that included John Tavares, Calvin de Haan, Anders Nilsson, Casey Cizikas and Anders Lee.
Now, the Islanders are not only a playoff team -- they have a farm system ranked in the top five by Pronman.
Quantity can come with a big payoff if done correctly.
“Teams have been doing that forever. They’re just being smart,” said an exec. “It’s not novel. It’s part of embracing the rebuild. You still have to convert them.”