Doug Weight has been on the other side of this. With the same team, even. He was with the New York Islanders when they changed coaches from Scott Gordon to Jack Capuano in November of 2010. He understands that a move like that often comes with a short-term boost -- all the things you hear about: There’s a wake-up call, a new voice, a renewed focus.
It also doesn’t last long, unless there’s meaningful change.
By Weight’s estimation, the Islanders probably enjoyed that new-coach boost during the five games they won before the All-Star break.
“It was gone going into the Washington game,” Weight said, pointing to the first game after the break. “It’s five days off, everybody is gone. ... It’s settled in, they’re used to me.”
So now, this is when you measure what the Islanders are under the new coach. Are they improving? Is there enough there to go on a playoff run?
The Islanders won that Washington game, perhaps their most impressive win of the Weight era. They’ve lost the next two, one to Carolina in overtime on Saturday, to put them at 1-1-1 in the post dead-cat-bounce era.
It’s early under coach Weight, but the Islanders look like the team we thought they were. Not bad. Not great. Probably not so much better than other teams in the East that they can go on a monster run to get into the playoffs.
The New York Islanders
The key indicators aren't good. But they aren't bottom-of-the-league bad either. GF% continues to outperform xGF%. pic.twitter.com/jzIZRHCxsi
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) February 6, 2017
They are essentially running the same system that they ran under Capuano. When you look at successful midseason coaching changes, the best ones often come with a change in philosophy -- like Mike Sullivan with the Penguins last season. But philosophically, this is the same team minus some minor tweaks in the defensive zone.
“Just the way the forwards, how they’re positioned against the defensemen who are at the blue line,” explained defenseman Johnny Boychuk of one defensive-zone tweak. “We were more looking at the puck. Now, we’re turned towards them.”
The hopeful result is that the Islanders can spend less time in the defensive zone and give up fewer high-quality scoring chances.
“A lot of teams now try to shrink the zone in certain areas of the ice defensively. At some points of the year, we were trying to do something similar, and we were getting beat and the puck was getting its way to the middle of the ice,” said captain John Tavares. “We tried to simplify a little bit.”
NYI's shot rate has eased down a touch under Weight but the big change is in rate of 5v5 shots against. They've trended back towards avg. pic.twitter.com/quWjpgokn8
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) February 6, 2017
The players will tell you that they felt they were playing better as a team, even at the time Capuano was fired. The numbers back it up. The problem is, it doesn’t look to be a significant enough improvement, not with the early hole the Islanders dug.
Weight believes this is a playoff team. He’ll get the chance to prove it, but they may need more help to get there besides a coaching change.
Nine more takeaways from the weekend:
2. Experience matters
One common refrain in the Islanders dressing room is how much respect the players have for Weight, in part because of his accomplishments as a player.
“He’s played over 1,000 games in the league, he carries a lot of weight when he talks,” said forward Jason Chimera. “When you talk to young guys, it’s not from someone who hasn’t played the game. When those guys talk, you listen.”
3. Weight's career plans
Weight also served as the team’s assistant general manager and expects to have input in any moves GM Garth Snow makes before the trade deadline, but his focus is squarely on righting the ship behind the bench. As for his long-term career plans? He’s not getting into that.
When asked which path he was hoping to go ultimately in his career -- coaching or management -- he smiled and deflected the question, answering: “The path to tomorrow night.”
4. Tavares wants another shot at the Olympics
As the NHL-to-Olympics negotiation continues to battle on, Tavares is often used as Exhibit A behind the risk of sending star players to the Olympics during the season. He was lost for the season when he injured his knee during the 2014 Olympics in Sochi.
Nobody knows the risk more than him, but that hasn’t led to any hesitation in wanting to play in 2018.
“I got hurt, it’s part of the game,” Tavares said. “I was lucky enough to go once, unfortunately got hurt, it was bittersweet. I would love another opportunity.”
5. Reality check for the Blues
The Blues begin the week outside a playoff spot and things got worse with the news that forward Robby Fabbri is lost for the season with a knee injury, suffered in Saturday’s loss to the Penguins.
If GM Doug Armstrong was looking for any additional prompting in how to address the trade deadline, this might do it. Fabbri was a key player during the Blues' playoff run, registering 15 points in 20 postseason games. He played with a fearlessness that belied his age. Sometimes it’s just not your season, and that seems to be the case in St. Louis.
6. Wise asset management by Shero
The trade of Vernon Fiddler to the Predators is sneaky smart asset management by Devils GM Ray Shero.
Fiddler is exactly the kind of player teams want every year at the trade deadline, but often overlook in the offseason when general managers want to give young players a shot at making the roster. So you sign him, and then move him closer to the trade deadline. It’s almost like buying extra draft picks.
7. Maple Leafs following similar strategy
If you gave the Maple Leafs some truth serum, they might admit that was probably part of the appeal to signing defenseman Roman Polak. At worst, he comes in and provides a veteran presence on the defense to help with young players. And if the season doesn’t go well, he gets spun again at the trade deadline.
Again, it’s a smart strategy that every young team should implement on some level.
8. Lovejoy on the move?
If Shero is moving into a selling mode, he has an interesting player in defenseman Ben Lovejoy who would have value. Normally, teams may not want a veteran defenseman who has two more years left on his contract that pays $2.7 million annually, but he would give teams a defenseman to expose in the expansion draft, and is a capable player with playoff experience. He would also effortlessly plug into any dressing room.
For the record, he has no intention of going anywhere.
“I really like it here,” Lovejoy said. “I want to do everything in my power to stay.”
9. Bonjour, Quebec?
The news emerging that Arizona State University has pulled out of the arena deal that would move the Coyotes to Tempe adds uncertainty to another situation, uncertainty that’s starting to pile up for the NHL. Since the All-Star break, news emerged that Carolina is looking to sell its entire franchise, the Islanders may not have an arena moving forward and now the Coyotes are back in limbo.
The NHL does everything in its power to prevent relocation, but the more these pile up, the better it looks for Quebec City.
10. Watch out for the Panthers
If you’re looking for an Eastern Conference team outside a playoff spot to go on a run and make a push, the Florida Panthers are emerging as the best bet. The Panthers looked good in beating the Ducks on Friday, and have now won three consecutive games. They’re getting healthy at the right time, and with a PDO of 98.7, Florida is a team due for some breaks.
They also have the cap space to be a player at the trade deadline. Keep an eye on the Panthers.