The symptoms of a league-wide goaltending problem have been popping up for weeks. There’s been a near outbreak of 7-6 games during a time in which it’s supposed to be harder than ever to score.
Carey Price, the best goaltender on Earth, has a .896 save percentage in January. That follows a December in which he put up an .899.
We began to wonder if we were seeing the beginning of the end of Henrik Lundqvist when he gave up seven goals against the Stars, after giving up five goals against the Canadiens, after giving up four goals in consecutive games. However, a mini-resurgence since then suggests he’s not dead yet.
Jake Allen was sent home to reset his season. Ondrej Pavelec was called up to save the Jets' season after the struggles of Connor Hellebuyck.
It’s been a rough go for the league’s goalies -- rough enough that the league average save percentage is now down to .913, the lowest since 2012-13.
For those working closely with goalies on a daily basis, that’s just the canary in the coalmine. They’re viewing this season as the toughest season on goalies in years, maybe decades.
There are a number of reasons, all of which we’ll get into -- the maligned compressed schedule, the influx of young talent, the lack of practice time.
But more than one goalie coach independently brought up one other factor they thought wasn’t getting enough attention for messing with the league’s best goalies.
The World Cup.
“What do all the struggling goalies have in common?” asked one Eastern Conference goalie coach.
So we start to name them:
Henrik Lundqvist. Sweden’s starter.
Carey Price. Canada’s starter.
Connor Hellebuyck. Team North America’s backup.
Jaroslav Halak. Team Europe’s starter.
Ben Bishop, Jonathan Quick, Cory Schneider. Team USA’s goaltending trio.
Jhonas Enroth. Team Europe backup.
Semyon Varlamov. Team Russia’s backup.
Petr Mrazek. Team Czech Republic’s goalie.
Every single one of those goalies has had either a down season or stretches where they haven’t looked like themselves. Hellebuyck and Mrazek entered this season primed to seize starting jobs for their teams, and both failed to do so. Ben Bishop has a .905 save percentage this season, the lowest since he started getting regular NHL work.
Enroth and Halak aren’t even in the league anymore. These were the best goalies in the world, representing their countries just a few months ago.
The World Cup messed with the routine of the goalies this season, and we’re seeing the impact right now on a widespread basis.
“It eliminated training camp,” said one goalie coach. “It eliminated a lot of the things that us goalie guys do at camp. It allows you to ramp up for the season. ... It created the emotional, physical and mental strains it put on them for that period of time. I just think it took some gasoline out of a lot of tanks.”
“It’s that quick start and not doing the traditional camp with your team,” a Western Conference goalie coach said. “If you look at it, all those guys are hitting a wall. They probably amped up their training earlier in the summertime. Then you’re playing. You’re in this condensed schedule. ... You burn out at some point whether you want to admit it or not.”
Now, we’re going to grant some exceptions to the theory. Sergei Bobrovsky, Russia’s goalie, has been great this season. After a slow start, Braden Holtby is coming on for the Capitals. He was on Canada’s roster. Finland’s Pekka Rinne has been good, as has Team North America duo Matt Murray and John Gibson.
So it’s not an air-tight theory. But it’s widespread enough that you can’t ignore it.
The side effect of the World Cup -- along with the implementation of the bye weeks -- has been a condensed schedule that has wiped out practice time for goalies and their coaches.
Lundqvist mentioned a bit of a mental refocusing on the fundamentals when his season started to go off the rails. That refocusing is best done with a full day off and with the assistance of a trusted coach, and goalies haven’t always had that luxury this season.
“It’s working on trusting a foundation,” said analyst and former NHL goalie Darren Pang. “There are basics of goaltending -- angles, staying square to the puck, patience on your skates. If you combine all three of those things, you’re going to be in great shape.”
If you’re missing one, you might be okay. If you’re missing two, good luck.
“The schedule is as difficult as it’s ever been,” Pang said. “These thoroughbreds are being whipped around the track. There’s only so much they can give every night.”
And the support they’re getting from teammates may not be as strong because of the condensed schedule. To do all the hard things it takes to win games -- to play with structure, block shots, win battles -- is asking a lot when you’re playing more games in a shorter time period.
So the play in front of goalies this season, according to those watching closely, hasn’t been as good as often as in previous seasons.
St. Louis is a great example. Ken Hitchcock is a demanding coach, who wants his team playing with consistency and structure every night. This version of the Blues hasn’t done that.
Part of it is because they’re younger. Veterans like David Backes, Steve Ott and Troy Brouwer are gone, and with them the accountability they bring to the dressing room. There’s a bit of a leadership void. But goalies in St. Louis are being asked to do more this season than in the past, and it’s reflected in the season turned in by Jake Allen.
When Lundqvist started to get things going for the Rangers, he didn’t credit himself or his goalie coach. He immediately credited his teammates. He appreciated their return to structure in front of him. When you know and trust where your teammates are going to be on the ice, the focus simply becomes on stopping the puck, not anticipating where it might end up.
“The biggest change is the way we play in front of me, with the structure and not giving up the big chances right in front,” Lundqvist said of his recent turnaround. “It makes the big difference for me. It’s easier to be patient when I know we’re right there to put pressure on the shooter. Guys are good here. If a shooter gets a lot of time and space with no pressure, it’s going to be tough to stop it sometimes.”
In today’s game, it’s going to be tough to stop it all of the time if there’s no pressure on the shooter. The league has seen an influx of talented, young scorers who have been working with specialized coaches since they were 10. They can put pucks in the tightest of spaces. The league is as talented right now as it’s ever been. Any edge the goalies had, with their advancement of specialized training, is being wiped out with every wave of new talent that enters the league.
Factor it all in, and this is most challenging year in memory for these goalies. And it’s not getting any easier.