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How NHL teams are preparing for the expansion draft

This is what the results of the 1998 expansion draft looked like for the Nashville Predators. Who will Las Vegas get? Bruce Bennett Studios/Getty Images

One of the common refrains from general managers earlier this year as the possibility of an expansion draft approached was that they weren’t going to spend too much time worrying about it until they saw the exact rules. The rules have evolved since deputy commissioner Bill Daly first shared details of a possible expansion draft at the spring GM meetings.

That evolution stopped when teams were notified recently that the executive committee was going to recommend to the board of governors that the league expand by one team, to Las Vegas.

According to an NHL source, along with the notification of an expansion recommendation came the potential expansion draft rules.

These were among the new details that added some clarity:

  • The biggest wrinkle is that a 70/40 rule has replaced the minimum salary rule. When the league revealed details of a potential expansion draft to the GMs in March, there was a rule that required a minimum amount of salary that needed to be exposed. That was scrapped, and replaced by a rule first reported by Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston.

    According to one GM, teams must expose two forwards and one defenseman under contract for the following season who played at least 40 games that season or a total of 70 in the previous two seasons.

    “You can’t just make all minor league guys available and nothing from the NHL team,” said the GM. “It creates a lot of headaches for a lot of teams.”

    This is a big deal, and means some good players are going to have to be exposed.

  • Players with a no-movement clause will have to be protected. This will also jam up a lot of teams, but teams have also been told that players can waive a no-movement clause in order to be exposed in the expansion draft.

    “I think there are plenty of guys who will waive their no-move in a certain situation,” said another GM. “There could be a situation where you have a no-move and you go, 'You know what? It might be good for me to get a fresh start, a team like that might prolong my career, allow me to make a good NHL living for three more years.'"

    An NHL player agent wasn’t so sure when asked whether he thought players would waive a no-movement clause to possibly play in Las Vegas.

    “Doubtful, although Vegas is probably more appealing than Quebec for a lot of guys,” he said in a text on Tuesday. “There are teams that would like to get out from under a couple NMCs, but players value them a lot.”

  • Players who have accumulated two professional seasons or fewer will be exempt from the expansion draft. The definition of a professional season is the same as determining whether a year is burned on an entry-level deal: 10 games. So in theory, a young player who played one full season in 2015-16 and 11 or more games in a previous season could be exposed after putting in his third season in 2016-17.

    There are also rules in place for players playing overseas.

    “If a player has been over in Europe for X amount of years, they are exposed to the draft,” said one source. “Teams have been stashing away guys; just because they haven’t played doesn’t mean they’re automatically exempt.”

At the NHL draft combine, I spoke to a number of general managers to get their sense of how they will approach the expected expansion draft, which will happen if the board of governors approves the expansion recommendation coming next week.

There’s an assumption made that teams will be proactive in moving players this summer if they think they’re going to lose them anyway.

Teams have already started modeling what an expansion draft will look like, and identifying the teams most vulnerable. Those general managers will be getting a lot of calls. But GMs also pointed out that they’re trying to field a winning team this season, and there’s a balance that comes with that.

Rivals have identified the Columbus Blue Jackets as a vulnerable team because they have a slew of no-movement clauses, including those for players like Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno, David Clarkson, Fedor Tyutin and Scott Hartnell. With the buyout period opening Wednesday, Columbus is a team to watch for exactly this reason. It might be better to buy out Tyutin than to have to protect him.

Protecting the veterans with no-movement clauses could free up a good, younger player like Cam Atkinson or David Savard. So will GM Jarmo Kekalainen start moving guys just for that reason?

“I don’t see it as anything more than balancing the same thing with a player who is one year away from unrestricted free agency,” Kekalainen said. “You have to do what the best thing is for the organization at the time. Sometimes, it’s holding on to the guy so you can keep your best possible competitive advantage in that particular season, feeling that this can be an 'our year' type of situation. If you don’t feel you’re in that situation, you always have to think a little further into the future.”

That could mean that teams keep their players for the start of the season and start shedding players before the trade deadline if the season looks lost.

“A lot of things can happen between now and the potential expansion draft,” Kekalainen said.

Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff echoed that thought process. Teams have to be careful moving players they might lose in an expansion draft because you could just be creating additional headaches for this season.

These guys are still also trying to build rosters to compete in 2016-17.

“You have to be prepared to do anything that fills holes for you, too,” Cheveldayoff said at the draft combine. “I wouldn’t do something to create a hole just for the sake that something maybe down the line is an issue. If you’re going to make a trade, you’re certainly not throwing in the towel for the year.”

It’s going to be balancing act. With the 70/40 rule in place, teams will look hard at signing veteran free agents to a two-year deal this summer rather than a one-year deal to have another option to expose, but with that comes the risk you’re stuck with a player you don’t want if they’re not selected.

Other teams may just have to come to terms with the fact that they’re going to be losing one good player and call it a day.

“Some will be strategic. Some might be overactive,” said a Western Conference GM. “I don’t know how guys are going to deal with it.”