ST. LOUIS -- Now, it’s down to three. Three games to determine which of these two tortured franchises -- the St. Louis Blues or San Jose Sharks -- gets to play for a Stanley Cup.
And after four games, the realization is setting in. The margin between these two teams is basically nothing.
“Everybody has the last games in their minds but when you look at the four games as a whole, the two teams are close in everything they do,” one Western Conference assistant coach said. “It’s two teams that are close in their strengths and weaknesses.”
So when that’s the case, it’s often the team that can play its style of play the best -- in this case, a very similar style. It also comes down to mental toughness. The team that does the best job in these three areas will be the team that advances:
1. Managing expectations
One advantage that the Sharks have had up until now is that they’ve been able to play in this postseason free of expectations. That’s a powerful thing.
Against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round, it didn’t matter what they did, there were going to be people who thought they were going to lose the series. Even if they opened up a big lead.
“San Jose went in with a low level of expectation and quite honestly, that was the breath of fresh air they needed to get past where they were,” the coach said. “To this point, St. Louis has dealt with the expectations better than San Jose has, quite simply because San Jose hasn’t had to deal with it. San Jose has just been playing great hockey.”
He’s right. There has been a high level of expectation heaped on the shoulders of the Blues from Game 1 of this postseason. And every single time the expectation has shifted to the point where you wondered if they were going to crack, they’ve responded with big games.
When St. Louis lost their 3-1 lead against the Blackhawks in the first round, and the expectation shifted back to a belief that Chicago was the reigning champ and would finish them off, the Blues played one of their best games in Game 7.
Against the Stars in the second round, when Dallas was headed home needing just one more win to advance and starting to make a case that their speed and skill was too much for St. Louis, the Blues were dominant in Game 7.
Where they haven’t done as well is when the expectation is that they’re going to win or they have an edge. The Blues seem to need a level of public doubt or fear to find their best game.
“Human nature takes its course,” the coach said. “Now, both teams have the same level of hope and expectation. Both teams have the same level of ‘What if we don’t?’ These are real questions that you deal with.”
2. Removing shortcuts
The Blues, especially, tend to get in trouble when a player tries to force a play that isn’t there. In their wins, these two teams have capitalized on mistakes to spark their transition games, so with the series shortened to three games, it’s all about the team that completely eliminates those mistakes.
“We’ve gotten better as the series has gone on. We were a lot better than people thought in Game 3. We did a lot of good things in Game 3,” coach Ken Hitchcock said. “It’s all connected. It’s playing to our strengths, playing to our identity.”
When you have two teams willing to dump the puck in and work hard to establish the forecheck, it becomes a battle of wills on who is more committed to do it consistently. Sometimes, it takes two or three plays just to get the puck in a good position to set up time in the offensive zone, and the team that tries to skip just one of those plays by moving away from support instead of moving into support has ended up paying the price.
“It’s almost like two football teams constantly on fourth down. Whose kicking team and whose coverage team wins the field advantage? That’s all happening,” the assistant coach said. “If you don’t have all these pieces working together, the forecheck doesn’t work. The opposite does.”
3. Mental toughness
This is a phrase that is thrown out there so often that it loses its meaning, but the mental focus in these final three games is this: Which of these two teams is willing to do the same thing over and over again until the opponent cracks?
At this point in the playoffs, think of how many times Alex Pietrangelo or Brent Burns has gone back for a puck, taken a hit and made the right move to get the puck going the other way.
All it takes is one moment where a player doesn’t do that, and there’s a goal or at least extended zone time.
We’ll use the last goal scored by the Sharks in Game 4 as an example. The Blues had just scored an empty-net goal and were up 6-2 with four minutes left in the game. At that point, the Blues aren’t as invested. This game is all but won, so the willingness to make the correct play is weakened.
The Sharks get the puck in deep behind Jake Allen and Kevin Shattenkirk is the first player there. At that point he has a decision. He has gone back for dozens of pucks in the playoffs, and as usual, there’s a forechecker flying in hard for a hit. In that moment, Shattenkirk decides to sidestep the hit. He moves out of the way. Really, it’s probably smart body management at this point of that game, given the healthy lead. But the result is the Sharks win the battle along the boards, work the puck around and score a goal a few moments later.
Over the course of the game, there are many moments like this. Split-second decisions made by players that result in extra zone time or scoring chances. Now, in what should be a tight final three games, the team that has the mental focus to make the right decision more often will likely emerge as the winner.
“They know what they need to do,” the coach said. “The mental toughness part comes when you go, ‘What if I just do a little bit over here and think I can get away with a better play with a little less effort?’ That’s the trick your mind is playing on you. It’s really hard.”