The 2017 NBA draft is just 364 days away, and as is often the case in the one-and-done era, several of the top potential draft picks haven't put on their school's uniform yet. There are a few players who are recruiting experts already know are likely to be in the green room.
Which player from the Class of 2016 looks like a sure one-and-done player?
Jeff Borzello: I’ve maintained that Josh Jackson (No. 2 in ESPN 100) will make the biggest impact next season of any 2016 prospect -- and as a result, I think he’s the most one-and-done ready.
He’s clearly the best two-way player entering the college game. He’s a lockdown defender who can guard multiple positions, while also showing a motivation and determination to win every night out. Jackson should start immediately at Kansas and will be counted upon to make a major impact at both ends of the floor. His floor in the NBA is a versatile, dynamic defender who is terrific in the open floor. And he could attain that level beginning tomorrow.
Paul Biancardi: Harry Giles (No. 1) would have been my pick had he not been injured. He is on his way to a healthy recovery, but I would want to wait and see him on the court again before saying he is ready. So I'm going with his Duke teammate Jayson Tatum (No. 3). Tatum is a highly skilled player with tremendous versatility.
He is an elite scorer because he creates space with dribble moves, jab steps and an ever-improving 3-point shot. He has the ability to score from all three ranges, and he understands how to create fouls. He is best in the mid and pinch post areas. His game will benefit under the tutelage of hall of fame mentor Mike Krzyzewski and his offensive schemes.
Tatum's consistent positional rebounding is sometimes overlooked, and he often makes winning plays over selfish ones, which will cut down his learning curve. From an NBA perspective he will benefit from the spacing, where he can attack in isolation and post up when he's surrounded by teammates who can knock down shots. His skills transfer because NBA offense is about transition, pick and rolls and isolation plays as well as playing off screening action, all of which Tatum is comfortable and confident in doing.
Adam Finkelstein: I agree that Jackson is the most one-and-done ready prospect in next year's freshmen class. I'm not so sure there is as direct a correlation between being the best college freshmen and most NBA-ready prospect. So while I have no doubt that he'll be great at Kansas from Day 1, what's more relevant for NBA purposes is that he has great positional size, is a high level athlete, an outstanding defender and an excellent passer. The few holes in his game -- he actually doesn't yet understand how to consistently create his own shot and needs to become a more consistent jump shooter -- are both areas that can be addressed with coaching and repetition.
Perhaps what is most important though, is that he has qualities that can't be taught. Jackson is an absolutely elite competitor, maybe the best we've seen in several years, and has a high basketball IQ to match. He's going to blow away every personality test and interview he has in the draft process. It's his combination of physical and mental tools that make him the most NBA-ready player in the 2016 class.
How about a lesser-known prospect who could shoot up draft boards in a hurry?
Borzello: It wouldn't be too much of a surprise, considering Markelle Fultz (No. 7) was ranked inside the top 10 for the ESPN 100 -- but we’re limited to one-and-done prospects, and Fultz could end up as the best point guard from this class. His story is well-known at this point. He didn’t make the varsity team at DeMatha (Maryland) as a sophomore but quickly became one of the most impressive guards in the 2016 class over the latter part of his high school career. At Washington, Fultz will have to shoulder most of the load from day one. Marquese Chriss and Dejounte Murray are gone to the NBA and Andrew Andrews graduated -- the offense will fall on Fultz’s shoulders. He’s super smooth with the ball in his hands and finds ways to get to the rim on nearly any defender. Fultz isn’t explosively fast, but he has an excellent first step and changes speeds as well as anyone in college basketball. His freshman year numbers are going to stand out, and NBA types are going to be drooling over his 6-foot-4 size and ability.
Biancardi: Incoming Texas freshman Jarrett Allen (No. 15) has some impressive physical measurables that NBA executives will quickly notice. He stands at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. He runs the floor with long strides and good lateral quickness to cover ground defensively. Allen will become a better runner of the floor under Longhorns coach Shaka Smart. He'll also block shots and rebound more with his length rather than strength. He finishes with flushes when close to the basket, and he has a quick bounce with terrific hands to score. He definitely needs to get stronger and learn to create leverage with a wider base on the blocks as well as develop a scoring move with his back to the basket. With the loss of Cameron Ridley, Prince Ibeh and Connor Lammert, the Longhorns are losing experience, points, rebounding and blocks. Allen will have a fabulous opportunity to play and impact the game, which could lead him right into the NBA draft.
Finkelstein: We’re still not sure if Terrance Ferguson (No. 11) is going to end up playing college basketball next year as he works to meet the NCAA’s academic requirements, but regardless, I’ve always considered his game to perhaps be better suited for the NBA than college. Ferguson’s DNA is that of a high level 3-point shooter with explosive athleticism and good positional size. Ask those people who were around USA Basketball’s U-18 team last summer and they’ll tell you his basketball IQ and ability to learn multiple positions on the fly is a more subtle, but no less valuable, asset. All of that lends itself points to a quality NBA prospect with a likely long career as a “3-and-D” type court spacer, at minimum. If he doesn’t end up at Arizona next year, or maybe doesn’t put up huge scoring numbers -- he’s not a natural playmaker and much better suited to play off other creators -- the average fan might not recognize that he still has a wealth of tools that will be very appealing to NBA executives.
Who has more work to do to rise to the level of a one-and-done player?
Borzello: There are times when Malik Monk (No. 9) looks like a future NBA superstar. He’s an insane athlete who produces highlight reel plays in transition on a nightly basis, but he also has deep range on his outside jumper and can get hot in a hurry. Monk at his best is as good as anyone in the 2016 class -- but we just need to see it more often. There are times when Monk’s outside shot is off and he struggles to create offense in a half-court setting. There are times when he’s not aggressive enough with the ball in his hands and doesn’t take over like we’ve seen him do before. Monk certainly improved in terms of his consistency as a senior; as a junior, he had 59 points in one game and seven in the next. He also sandwiched a 40-point performance around eight and 12-point outings. At Kentucky, Monk will be the best scorer on the roster. Can he show his immense athleticism and talents on a nightly basis? That will be the thing to watch.
Biancardi: UCLA commit Lonzo Ball (No. 4) led his high school team to an undefeated season and unparalleled success, which quickly established him as one of the best players in the class. He is a unique talent as a 6-foot-6 point guard because of his passing vision and accuracy, which turn into assists if his teammates can finish the shot. He will quickly turn UCLA into a better team because he makes his teammates better. He knows who's open and has the talent to put the pass right on the money. And his 3-point shot has deep range, but his shot quality raises concerns. The question will be how he responds to coach Steve Alford in pressure situations. Ball has a poker face in the heat of the moment, which will serve him well. Success in the high school ranks is one thing, but there is a learning curve both mentally and physically when you jump to the next level. Ball is gifted with the natural ability and athleticism necessary to be one-and-done. Let's first see how he responds in Westwood.
Finkelstein: Jonathan Isaac (No. 12) is a guy I’m concerned about. On the surface, he has great perimeter size, long arms and a potential lethal skill set. Catch him on the right day, and he’ll look like a lottery pick. But he’s also proven to be injury prone over the last couple of years, and combined with his slight frame, it isn’t a good recipe in today’s NBA. The concerns aren’t about Isaac’s natural talent, or even the potential that such talent dictates, but more to his durability and consequent ability to make a consistent impact at a high, and incredibly physical level of play. His injury history is already going to be a red flag when NBA franchises start their backcourt checks. He’s going to need to stay healthy for the entire season at Florida State and show he’s capable of adding some muscle to his upper body. Then, he'll need to start turning potential into production on a more consistent basis, at least relative to other five-star freshmen.