We continue our recruit and return series with the North Carolina Tar Heels, whose season ended Monday with a loss to Villanova in the national championship. A look at what the 2016-17 season could hold:
Possible 2016-17 starting five (statistics reflect regular season average)
G: Joel Berry II (12.7 PPG, 2.6 APG)
G: Brandon Robinson (incoming freshman)
F: Justin Jackson (12.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
F: Isaiah Hicks (9.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG)
F: Kennedy Meeks (9.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG)
Who is lost: Brice Johnson (16.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG) was the leading figure for a national runner-up that won the ACC regular season and tournament titles, finishing second for ACC Player of the Year honors after a season in which he was consistently productive at both ends. Still, the Tar Heels’ most recognizable player for many was another senior, Marcus Paige (12.1 PPG, 3.7 APG). Paige was a leader for the Heels for four years, though his numbers went down after a sensational sophomore season in which he averaged 17.5 points per game, and he mostly struggled with his shot (32.3 percent from three) in 2015-16. The only other known departure is four-year frontcourt reserve Joel James (2.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG). It’s possible that other Tar Heels such as Justin Jackson and Kennedy Meeks could test the NBA waters, though both are considered second-round picks at best.
Who is added: North Carolina will bring in a talented three-man recruiting class in 2016-17, led by five-star center Tony Bradley, a 6-foot-10, 235-pound Floridian who could immediately help compensate for Brice Johnson’s departure. The other two additions are both in the backcourt, and are both guards. Former eighth-grade sensation Seventh Woods is the bigger name, but the more notable impact might be made initially by Brandon Robinson, who can score from all three levels and has a smooth stroke.
What it means for next season: Losing players such as Johnson and Paige, who powered a Final Four berth, is not insignificant, though on paper Roy Williams and the Tar Heels have the ability to compensate. Up front, ACC sixth man of the year Isaiah Hicks figures to move into a well-earned starting role, and with Meeks and incoming five-star Bradley joining him, this team should continue doing damage in the frontcourt. On the perimeter, Joel Berry was the team’s leading assist man and most consistent three-point shooter, Justin Jackson has proven a capable scorer (though a poor outside shooter), Theo Pinson (4.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.0 APG) is a glue guy, and Robinson and Woods should be able to contribute as well. If either of the freshmen can shoot the basketball consistently, it would help immensely -- the Heels shot 28.3 percent from three-point range in ACC play, worst in the league.
Trending: Level to down. Johnson and Paige were stars and leaders, but like all the best North Carolina teams, this was a balanced group that didn’t necessarily rely on one or two players every night. There is enough of a returning nucleus for the Tar Heels to set another ACC title as a legitimate goal -- at a minimum. This team won’t be bringing in three five-stars like Duke, and won’t be as talented on paper as its hated rival. But it will be more experienced and mature than the Blue Devils, and won’t concede its ACC crown quietly.