Astros have a major perception problem

Buster OlneyJul 20, 2014, 09:59 AM ET

Perception matters, which is why the chief justice of the Supreme Court has historically worked for unanimity in decisions, and why the loser in the presidential election gives a concession speech, to legitimize the process.

Perception is particularly important in business, when you are asking potential customers to buy your product, and buy into your product. Perception is why the St. Louis Cardinals will never substantively alter their timeless logo, and why the New York Yankees will always wear pinstripes.

But the power of perception is what the Houston Astros have ignored in their machinations, including those leading up to their failure to sign No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken by Friday's deadline. The perception of their decisions -- in the eyes of some of their own players, players with other teams, agents and, most importantly, potential customers -- may take many years for them to overcome. Evan Drellich was right in what he wrote in late May: The Astros have an enormous perception problem.

The Astros have had an incredible opportunity, having picked at the top of the draft for three straight seasons, but time and again, they have been penny-wise and pound-foolish and damaged their brand along the way.

The Astros have their own self image, but they need to know that among players and agents, they are seen as a team that tried to strong-arm the best player in their organization, George Springer, into a team-friendly extension, and then punished Springer when he didn’t agree to a new deal by sending him to the minors, again. The fact that Springer has starred since being called up April 16 has only reinforced the perception among agents and some players that the Astros were more interested in manipulating Springer than they were about winning.

Mark Appel was at or near the top of a lot of draft boards in 2013, but some rival executives were surprised that the Astros chose to take him over third baseman Kris Bryant with the No. 1 overall pick. “Taking a position player means a lot less risk,” said one high-ranking executive.

Some decisions work out, and some don’t, but the timing of how this one is playing out could not be worse. Appel is struggling badly in the minors while Bryant is wrecking his way to the big leagues, averaging a home run every 10 at-bats, and the choice of Appel over Bryant has a chance to surpass Phil Nevin over Derek Jeter in Houston draft lore as the draft decision that turned into a disaster.

The Astros are widely viewed by rival executives as a team that tanked the 2013 season, seemingly designing a team for a degree of failure that only the 1962-65 New York Mets could rival. The Astros opened the year with a $20 million payroll, and then traded almost every player making more than $1 million. You’ve heard of too big to fail? Well, Houston had so little talent and so much inexperience that there was no chance the Astros could compete.

Not surprisingly, the team went 51-111, earning the Astros the first pick in the 2014 draft; and now, in spite of all that losing, and the summerlong string of wipeouts, they failed to sign Aiken.

Only Astros officials know for sure why they reduced their offer to Aiken, and they maintain they have done nothing wrong. The perception in a lot of corners -- including that of the players' association -- is that the Astros shifted their offers around in an effort to lock up three draft picks, and not just Aiken. Anybody with a paper and pencil can figure out that the scope of the attempted reduction for Aiken almost perfectly matches the money discussed with fifth-round pick Jacob Nix and 21st-round pick Mac Marshall.

The problem for the Astros -- the great miscalculation -- is built around the fact that widely respected and generally understated agent Casey Close is an adviser to both players. He knows when the proposals were altered, and by how much. He is well aware how Nix arrived with his family in Houston, prepared to sign, only to be told the agreement was null and void. The perception of that stinks. He can speak firsthand to both the Aiken and Nix families about how this played out.

It stands to reason that Aiken’s family would not take the calls of the Astros on Friday because of that perception -- about the Houston offers shifting from $6.5 million to $3.1 million to about $5 million. Or maybe the Astros couldn’t get the Aikens to take their phone calls because of how the Astros’ concern over Aiken’s ulnar collateral ligament leaked out, not long before published stories about Aiken’s college eligibility being in jeopardy. As one longtime agent said, “I stopped believing in coincidences a long time ago.”

It may be that the Astros boxed themselves in, negotiating the signing bonus with Nix while assuming that eventually Aiken would capitulate and agree to their reduced terms. It’s possible that by the last hours, they weren’t in position to give Aiken the $6.5 million initially promised because that would have ended any chance of them revitalizing the Nix deal.

But in the end, the Astros had a $5 million-ish offer on the table to Aiken, a rollback of $1.5 million over the initial agreement, which tells us that while they still had concerns about Aiken’s medicals, the UCL issue was hardly a deal-breaker. At some moment in this process, the Astros should’ve stopped obsessing over the numbers and instead taken a step back and assessed the potential for damage to the perception of the organization if the worst-case scenario happened, that Aiken and Nix failed to sign.

This is because the fallout from that outcome could linger for years, hanging over the team like a radioactive cloud. For the sake of $1.5 million.

If the Astros could have navigated their way out of the Aiken mess somewhere along the way -- before their concerns about his medicals leaked out -- the savings in how they’re perceived, the protection of their brand, would’ve been worth a whole lot more than $1.5 million.

The surcharge for their recent actions is already in place, and figures to cost them even more going into the future. Last winter, Scott Kazmir -- a Houston native -- opted to sign a two-year deal with the Oakland Athletics instead of following up on the Astros’ overtures. Houston was able to sign veteran right-hander Scott Feldman to a three-year, $30 million deal, an overpay of perhaps 20 to 50 percent in the eyes of many in the industry, because the Astros have been so bad, and figure to be terrible for the foreseeable future.

Fairly or not, the perception of them is shattered, and they will have to pay for its reconstruction, one way or another.

The Astros have the second-worst record in baseball after losing Saturday. Controversy seems to follow the Astros, writes Drellich.

Dodgers-Cardinals

• We’ve got Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers against Carlos Martinez and the St. Louis Cardinals on "Sunday Night Baseball" (8 ET on ESPN and WatchESPN).

The Elias Sports Bureau notes that Kershaw is the only pitcher in major league history to win eight consecutive starts within a single season with at least 80 strikeouts and an ERA under 1.00 over that span. Kershaw has allowed one run or fewer in seven straight starts, tied with Kevin Brown (2003) and Fernando Valenzuela (1981) for the longest such streak by a Dodgers pitcher since 1900.

• The Dodgers looked flat on Saturday, and after the game, Don Mattingly acknowledged that Hanley Ramirez's swing has been affected by a right shoulder injury. The Cardinals won, but Matt Holliday was injured. The Cardinals ruled out a concussion.

The Dodgers need Joc Pederson, writes Bill Plaschke. Yasiel Puig isn’t worried about his swollen hand.

Around the league

• The Indians are making a major statement coming right out of the break, with three straight wins in Detroit. Remember, the Tigers have a brutal second-half schedule, with 54 games in 55 days.

• On Friday’s podcast, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch assessed the Cardinals’ situation, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com weighed in on the Mets’ issues and Jerry Crasnick discussed how the Athletics may have their best team of the last decade.

• A few weeks ago, Los Angeles Angels GM Jerry Dipoto talked over the phone about how his bullpen problems actually weren’t as bad as they seemed. Joe Smith had thrown effectively, he said, and so had Kevin Jepsen. They had a few trouble spots, for sure, perhaps a need for a closer and a left-hander or two, but the underbelly of the group, Dipoto felt, was better than its reputation.

So he had not gone for a complete overhaul for the bullpen in recent weeks, and the bullpen already had started to perform better. But then he added Jason Grilli, left-hander Joe Thatcher and All-Star closer Huston Street, and the Angels now appear to have a bullpen that appears capable of more than holding up its end of the work.

Street has long-term aspirations, writes Mike DiGiovanna.

• Some teams say the Rockies have never told them that shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is available in trade, and there is general skepticism that Colorado could find an acceptable deal -- short of an outright dumping of the contract -- if the Rockies decided to move him.

Not only would an interested team have to surrender the value of Tulowitzki, as a player -- the MLB leader in WAR at the moment, as seen in the chart at right -- but also the value of what Tulowitzki represents to the Rockies, as their Cal Ripken or Tony Gwynn.

“They’d ask for seven prospects,” said one official dismissively.

Tulowitzki’s situation is also complicated by the money owed to him, about $124 million over the next seven-plus seasons, and his extensive injury history. From ESPN Stats & Information: Tulowitzki played 155 games in his first full season in MLB in 2007. Since then, he's played in 150 games only once (151 in 2009).

Tulowitzki got hurt again Saturday.

Some key questions about the Rockies need answers, writes Patrick Saunders.

• Felix Hernandez is on a serious roll, and the Mariners beat the Angels on Saturday night.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Hernandez has now recorded 12 consecutive starts with at least seven innings pitched and two or fewer runs allowed. That's tied with Chief Bender (in 1907) for the longest single-season streak by an AL pitcher in modern MLB history and one shy of tying Tom Seaver's MLB record. Over the past 10 seasons, Hernandez has the most such starts total (96), well ahead of second-best Cliff Lee (80).

Over the past five seasons, Hernandez leads MLB in starts of seven or more innings pitched in which he relented one earned run or fewer and did not get a win.

• Joel Sherman writes about an unappreciated Derek Jeter trait. Jeter makes the routine look extraordinary, writes Harvey Araton.

Trade deadline stuff

1. There continues to be an expectation among rival evaluators that the Tampa Bay Rays will essentially make their decision sometime in the next week about whether to trade David Price, who was great again on Saturday, this time against the Minnesota Twins.

From ESPN Stats & Info, here's how he won:

A. Price threw 25 changeups, which netted him eight outs and yielded only one baserunner (on an error).

B. He went to two strikes on 21 hitters, allowing only two of them to get hits. This is the second time this season he's gone to two strikes on that many hitters in a game (there have been only three other games in which a pitcher has gone to two strikes on that many hitters this season).

C. He threw 119 pitches, but only 12 of those came in hitters' counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1).

2. Trading Cliff Lee hardly guarantees a big return, writes Matt Gelb.

Gelb is right; the option year cuts into Lee’s value significantly.

3. The Brewers are unlikely to make a big move before the trade deadline, writes Tom Haudricourt.

4. The Cubs await more word of trade activity. I speculated here the other day that if the Rays and Mariners discuss a David Price deal, the Cubs are the perfect third team to help deliver the position prospect(s) Tampa Bay wants and needs. The Rays could send Price to Seattle, the Mariners could deliver pitching to the Cubs (hello, Taijuan Walker), and the Cubs could send a young infielder to the Rays.

5. The Tigers shouldn’t give up too much to add a reliever, writes Drew Sharp. Joakim Soria and Joaquin Benoit are perfect trade targets, because they could help in the eighth inning, and if more is needed (should Joe Nathan falter), Soria and Benoit are capable of shifting to the ninth inning.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. Jordan Zimmermann is still scheduled to start Tuesday for the Nationals.

2. Cody Asche may be shifted to left field.

Dings and dents

1. CC Sabathia is confident he’ll be ready for the start of spring training.

2. Joe Mauer has taken some small steps toward returning to the Twins.

3. Jason Vargas is working his way back from an appendectomy.

4. Shane Victorino made his return to the Boston lineup.

5. Henderson Alvarez left his start Saturday with a bruised shoulder.

6. Evan Gattis is getting better.

7. Alex Rios sprained his ankle.

Saturday’s games