The other day, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated and the MLB Network weighed in on the stagnant winter market, citing seven forces that have manifested this winter, and among those was “The Empty Middle Lane." He wrote:
It’s become mostly a bifurcated game: Teams are either all-in as far as World Series aspirations or all-out. That’s not “tanking.” That’s smart business sense.
Of course it’s tanking, and it’s been going on in professional sports for decades, and it’s also smart baseball business under the current rules for the teams that choose this course. Front offices are structuring their major league rosters and budgets to lose, to move higher in the draft order and access the best possible talent.
This is how the Astros got to pick from the top of the draft board and nabbed Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and Lance McCullers Jr. and how the Cubs landed Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora Jr.
But it’s also not great for the baseball product because a quarter to a third of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball are not competitive. With negotiated caps on spending for amateur players, teams are not devoting the additional money saved on the big league payroll to international talent or stockpiling cash for the draft or slashing ticket prices; they’re pocketing the money in profit (which is their prerogative, under the current rules). If you want to be polite, you can call it rebuilding, but to suggest it’s anything other than designed failure by front offices is disingenuous.
The practice, more pervasive than ever, nudges the sport to the edge of an ethical abyss. With front offices increasingly involved in the building of lineups and daily pitching plans, the chances are greater than ever that one executive or another will attempt to micromanage their teams into losses on specific days -- by choosing, for example, a starting pitcher who is more likely to lose.
There was once a manager who made similar choices, betting day to day on whether one of his own pitchers would fail. This is why Pete Rose is serving a lifetime ban.
If you think that concept is ridiculous, then you probably didn’t believe any organization would seek a competitive advantage by hacking the computer system of another (hello, Cardinals) or through watch technology (Red Sox) or under-the-table negotiations (Braves).
Tanking is good business for individual teams, under the current rules. But it’s dangerous for Major League Baseball to have teams battling to be the absolute worst, to jockey for draft position to land the next Strasburg, Harper, Correa or Bryant.
Last year, there were three teams with more than 100 victories and four teams with 97 or more. ESPN’s Paul Hembekides sent along these notes: There have been six instances in which at least four teams won 97 games -- 1977, 1985, 1998, 1999, 2002 and 2017.
If you go a couple of layers deeper: Last year, there were five teams with a run differential of +150 or better (the Indians, Yankees, Astros, Dodgers and Diamondbacks). That has happened only once before in the modern era, in 1931. Last year, four teams had run differentials of 190+ or better. The last time that happened was 1890.
Meanwhile, as that not insubstantial group of teams decline to spend in their race to the bottom of the standings, league-wide spending has stalled.
MLB payroll increase by season:
2017 +4.9
2016 +3.9
2015 +8.7
2014 +8.2
2013 +5.9
2012 +7.0
The polarized nature of baseball is reflected in the top 10 unit rankings below, with a lot of teams appearing on most or all of the lists. Because in 2018, a lot of front offices are working to build super teams or super bad teams -- this is where the rewards can be found. And that’s a problem.
The lists are based on the input of MLB evaluators and executed with the help of Hembekides, Mark Simon and Sarah Langs.
Top 10 rotations
1. Washington Nationals: Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are elite aces, and they overshadow teammates Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers’ work for flexibility and depth extends to their rotation. Ten pitchers made starts for them last season, and no one made more than 27. Only two starters have reached 175 innings the past two seasons, but no more than that. Some of it has to do with injuries, and obviously, some of it is philosophy. Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Alex Wood front an excellent group.
3. Cleveland Indians: Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco are high-end starters, but Trevor Bauer's improvement has been steady.
Bauer by xFIP
2013: 6.60
2014: 4.14
2015: 4.28
2016: 4.13
2017: 3.60
4. Houston Astros: If they get Gerrit Cole, Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta or some other frontline starter between now and the end of the winter, they could have the best rotation in baseball.
5. New York Mets: The Mets hope new manager Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland can help reset the culture for a rotation filled with guys in need of a big year: Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler are all coming off injury-plagued seasons, and Matt Harvey needs to create a platform for his free agency. The group is fronted by Jacob deGrom, and underneath the problems, there is still talent.
6. New York Yankees: The Yankees still intend to add one more veteran to a rotation that includes Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery and CC Sabathia.
7. Boston Red Sox: Chris Sale was the best pitcher in baseball for a lot of the 2017 season, a great No. 1. David Price will be the wild card for the Red Sox because of his elbow.
8. Arizona Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray's emergence has given a significant bump to the overall quality of this group.
9. Los Angeles Angels: The Angels are likely to go with a six-man rotation, now that Shohei Ohtani has joined the once fragile collection of Angels starters. Depth might be a strength here for the first time in years.
10. San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner recovered well from his motorbike accident last summer and can be penciled in for 32-34 starts, which changes a lot about what’s possible.
Lineups
1. Astros: The best young lineup in baseball can build on its success of last season.
2. Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton joins Aaron Judge. It’ll be the show everyone wants to see all summer.
3. Chicago Cubs: Willson Contreras' improvement transformed the offense in the month before he got hurt.
4. Colorado Rockies: You start with Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, add some elevation, and inevitably, the Rockies will be at or near the top of the NL in runs.
5. Diamondbacks: The D-backs are still working on ways to get better, but even without another addition, they should have a good lineup around Paul Goldschmidt.
6. St. Louis Cardinals: A full-time commitment to Tommy Pham and the addition of Marcell Ozuna gives the Cards a bump.
7. Indians: The departure of Carlos Santana hurts, but he struggled for a good chunk of last season, and the Indians finished third in the AL in runs, with their deep lineup.
8. Philadelphia Phillies: They’ll have Santana the whole year and Rhys Hoskins. Maikel Franco will be the big X-factor.
9. Seattle Mariners: Jean Segura and Dee Gordon will hit at the top of the lineup, followed by Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager and Ryon Healy. That’ll work.
10. Dodgers: They’ll go into this year with Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger settled into their everyday lineup.
Bullpens
1. Yankees: Other teams are in awe of the quality and depth of this group, which will be far and away the best relief corps if Dellin Betances rebounds.
2. Dodgers: The departure of Brandon Morrow hurts, but newly acquired lefty Scott Alexander is an intriguing talent to place in front of closer Kenley Jansen.
3. Nationals: What a difference a year makes: Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler will give the Nats a really good group.
4. Red Sox: Alex Cora will have a lot of power arms in front of closer Craig Kimbrel, from Carson Smith to Joe Kelly.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Felipe Rivero is among the top closers in baseball, and if the Pirates carry a sell-off into the regular season, teams will come calling.
6. Indians: They’ll miss Bryan Shaw and probably need to sign a right-hander before spring training begins, but they have a great foundation in Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.
7. Cubs: Carl Edwards Jr. completely lost the strike zone in the playoffs after a great regular season, so his performance will probably be the most closely watched in the Cubs' camp.
8. Astros: By the end of the AL playoffs, closer Ken Giles lost his role. But manager A.J. Hinch has a lot of weapons from which to choose.
9. Angels: This group helped to make up for rotation injury issues last season, and Blake Parker emerged as the closer late in the year.
10. Milwaukee Brewers: Lefty Josh Hader had a big impact behind closer Corey Knebel last season, with 68 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings.
Defenses
1. Angels: Shortstop Andrelton Simmons, catcher Martin Maldonado and center fielder Mike Trout comprise the backbone, flanked by Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart and others.
2. Cubs: There is reason for them to expect a bounce-back season from Addison Russell, and Almora will get more time in center.
3. Dodgers: They excel in defensive positioning.
4. Indians: They’ve got three great glove men in Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Bradley Zimmer.
5. Tampa Bay Rays: They led MLB in Defensive Runs Saved last season, but the trade of Evan Longoria will hurt.
6. Cardinals: The switch of Pham to center and the addition of Ozuna will help.
7. Brewers: This is the year shortstop Orlando Arcia climbs into the imagination of casual fans.
8. Rockies: Their infield defense is awesome on its best days.
9. Yankees: No matter whom Aaron Boone positions in the outfield, he has great options. Improvement is needed from Gary Sanchez.
10. Red Sox: If the Red Sox keep Jackie Bradley Jr., their outfield defense will be the best -- again.