After a month of bad reviews over the trade of MVP Giancarlo Stanton, the Miami Marlins might be inclined to hang on to their best remaining player, Christian Yelich, who is among MLB’s top 10 left fielders -- the position where he is expected to play in 2018.
Yelich has a team-friendly contract and will make only $7 million this season, so there’s no immediate pressure on Miami to deal him. In a year in which the Marlins will be a recurring punchline, Derek Jeter & Co. could cling to Yelich as a piece of credibility in the way that the San Diego Padres kept Tony Gwynn and Andy Benes through their 1993 fire sale of Gary Sheffield, Fred McGriff and others.
But there’s a strong argument to be made that the Marlins’ best strategy is to deal Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and any other veteran of value, because any lasting damage that has been done to the franchise by Jeter’s Project Wolverine teardown could be irreversible -- unless the Marlins execute a near-perfect, cost-efficient rebuild. And even then, it may not matter to fans in south Florida.
The truncated history of the Montreal Expos might provide the best comparison to where the Marlins stand now. As the Montreal ownership made decisions about the team’s finances, the Expos’ fan base endured repeated departures of Hall of Fame-caliber players: Gary Carter. Andre Dawson. Tim Raines. Vladimir Guerrero. Pedro Martinez.
Eventually, the fans in Montreal stopped going to games. After Martinez was traded in the fall of 1997, the Expos’ attendance fell by about 40 percent, to less than 1 million, and in 2001, Montreal drew just 643,000. The 2004 Expos drew 750,000, with a lot of that accounted for by fans saying goodbye to the team.
Depending on how the Marlins handle their accounting this year, they may become the first MLB team since the ’04 Expos to fail to reach 1 million in attendance. According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Marlins’ through-the-turnstile count last year was closer to 800,000, or about half of their announced attendance of 1.59 million. With the trades of Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, the team will likely be terrible in 2018 and for at least three or four years after that, as the front office goes through its rebuilding/tanking. Yelich’s presence in a Marlins uniform isn’t going to fool fans about the product.
What’s most important now for the Marlins’ front office is to collect and develop the right group of prospects, and to time its collective ascension the way that the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros did theirs. It’s a nearly impossible challenge, of course, because the Marlins aren’t embedded in the hearts of their fan base the way the Cubs were, nor do they have the financial potential of the Astros to augment their young players. The truth is that Project Wolverine is the baseball equivalent of a Hail Mary, because even if they get it right, fans in south Florida might not care anymore -- after the breakups of the ’97 and ’03 championship teams, the trade of 24-year-old superstar Miguel Cabrera, the swap of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle even after the opening of the taxpayer-funded ballpark, and now the salary dump of Stanton.
The new ownership group had one chance to make a first impression, one chance to distinguish itself from the distrusted regimes of the past. That has been squandered, and mortal damage may have been done to the market. Considering where the Marlins are today, they might as well push ahead and "rip the whole Band-Aid off,” as a rival executive said. “They might as well take all the pain now.”
So yes, the time is right to trade Yelich. His inclusion in the top-10 list below is based on the input of evaluators, with the counsel of ESPN researchers Mark Simon, Paul Hembekides and Sarah Langs.
1. Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals
Under Jeffrey Loria, the Marlins sometimes acted rashly, doing stuff you’d never see from other organizations, such as when longtime evaluator Dan Jennings was named manager despite having zero experience in that role. But every so often, the impetuosity paid off -- and maybe it did with Marcell Ozuna. The young slugger showed up to spring training heavy and out of shape, and in midseason the Marlins demoted him to the minors, against the objections of his agent, Scott Boras.
You can debate how much the rebuke actually affected his play, but there’s no doubt that Ozuna improved a lot the past two years, which is why the Cardinals aggressively targeted him over the winter and will install him in the middle of their lineup. Ozuna was an average center fielder at best, but he is a good left fielder; only Brett Gardner had more defensive runs saved than Ozuna last year.
2. Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins
The Marlins’ intention is to shift Yelich back to left field if they keep him, and if he’s traded he’s likely to be a corner outfielder moving forward. His power numbers have jumped the past two seasons -- he hit a total of 39 homers in 2016 and 2017 -- and any team that acquires him can do so with the expectation that Yelich’s production will continue to climb outside of the Marlins’ cavernous home park. Incredibly, 41 of his 59 career homers have been hit on the road, where his OPS has been 80 points higher than in his home games. He has been remarkably consistent in his ability to get on base: In his five seasons, Yelich’s OBP has ranged between .362 and .376 annually.
3. Justin Upton, Los Angeles Angels
The Angels traded for Upton to help with the last month of their pennant push last season, but they also bought a one-month audition -- a test-drive with one of baseball’s best power hitters. And they liked what they saw, because after the season they negotiated a one-year extension for Upton, who could’ve opted out of his contract. "Justin embodied our offensive philosophy, which is to get on base and hit the ball hard," Angels GM Billy Eppler said on the night that the signing was announced. "He's shown a knack for doing that. He's got the power and the on-base skills that we covet, as well as the character and the professional approach necessary to be a key member of our core moving forward."
Upton hit 35 homers last year and has had at least 26 homers in each of the past six seasons. He tied for 23rd in wRC+ among all hitters who qualified for the batting title.
4. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox
If not for Aaron Judge, Benintendi would’ve won the AL Rookie of the Year Award after a very solid first showing -- and there’s probably a lot more power to come. A longtime scout noted Benintendi’s unusual swing and its natural uppercut, giving him the ability to get the ball in the air, and as he learns more about pitchers and how he’s being attacked, that will likely manifest more and more. Benintendi hit 20 homers, stole 20 bases and scored 84 runs in his first season, and he ran the bases well and played good defensive.
5. Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets
Cespedes' physical condition at the outset of spring training might be the biggest story in Mets camp again because of how last year played out. He reported to camp with the body of a middle linebacker after an offseason of heavy weight training, and after daily eruptions in batting practice, the Mets were hopeful that he would have a monster season. But Cespedes broke down repeatedly last summer and played just half of the Mets’ games, creating an enormous hole in the lineup. The Mets aren’t expecting anything out of David Wright, they need a second baseman and a first baseman, and they don’t know what they’ll get out of Matt Harvey -- and they can probably overcome all of that uncertainty and still contend. But given the structure of the Mets’ lineup and the $87 million they have invested in Cespedes moving ahead, it’s hard to imagine they can win in 2018 unless the 32-year-old Cespedes plays in 130-plus games. If he played 150 games, he would probably be MLB’s best left fielder.
6. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
As the Yankees have worked to manage their payroll and roster needs in recent winters, they have been open to the idea of trading Gardner -- and have been surprised by how unaggressive other teams have been. Gardner has been a clubhouse leader, a consistent source of accountability, and the Yankees have loved him for that, but he also has been a good player, with a solid on-base percentage (.350 last season), tough and extended at-bats, good defense, good baserunning, versatility and his emotional flexibility -- he'll do whatever they need him to. Now the Yankees may well keep him through the remainder of his contract, which pays him $11.5 million in 2018, with a club option for $12.5 million in 2019.
7. Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins
A rival evaluator following the Twins believes that, collectively, their young hitters make an effort to ignore breaking pitches early in the count. They chased out of the strike zone less and gave themselves a chance to see better pitches later in the count. This seemed to really help Rosario, who improved significantly as the 2017 season progressed, hitting .311 with a .351 OBP and a .568 SLG after June 13. He finished the year with an adjusted OPS+ of 120. It was a crossroad season for him: Rosario’s patience at the plate improved, he gave himself a better chance to get better pitches to hit, and his rate of contact climbed.
8. Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics
He has hit 85 homers over the past two seasons, but he will be an interesting test case in the next year of the industry’s investment in defense. The Brewers traded Davis to Oakland a few years ago partly because of their concern about his outfield play, and metrics indicated that last season was his worst year defensively -- only six outfielders scored lower in defensive runs saved than Davis, who posted a minus-13 mark. Oakland manager Bob Melvin played him in fewer games in the outfield. In 2016, Chris Carter led the National League in home runs -- and then was nontendered. Davis made $5 million last season and will get a big raise this winter because the arbitration process rewards players for success with the old-school statistics like homers and RBI. If Oakland drifts out of contention in 2018 -- which is likely, given the strength at the top of the AL West -- and the Athletics dangle Davis in the trade market, the level of interest will be the first strong indication of how Davis' skill set is actually valued by rival evaluators.
9. Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
With the start of spring training a little more than a month away, the Pirates haven’t wholly embraced a course of action for 2018; after weeks of trade discussion, they still have Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole and Josh Harrison on their roster. They still have the option of trying to win in 2018.
A really important variable in their plans is the expected performance of Marte, and the simple fact of the matter is they have no way of knowing what type of player he will be in the year ahead. Marte was busted for PEDs early last season and didn't produce after he returned from suspension: In those 64 games, he had a .723 OPS with 13 extra-base hits, although he batted .330 in his last 23 games. Because of his lack of time on the field during the regular season, the Pirates gave him the OK to play winter ball, and he initially struggled before finishing with a .255 average and .310 on-base percentage.
The Pirates don’t know if Marte’s strong play in the past was rooted in PED use, or if he can be a high-end offensive player. At the very least, he’ll help Pittsburgh’s defense (and pitching, by extension) with his glove work. He had eight defensive runs saved in just 665⅓ innings last season.
10. Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
His impact in the big leagues was immediate -- 18 homers in 50 games -- but the lasting impression that Hoskins made on some evaluators was his willingness to take a walk as opposing pitchers tried to cope with his power. He drew 37 walks and averaged 4.65 pitches per plate appearance, and had a .396 on-base percentage. Hoskins will have to face more counterattacks in his second season in the big leagues, but the Phillies saw enough of him in the lineup and in left field to buy into three years of Carlos Santana at first base, giving Philadelphia a powerful lineup core.
Best of the rest
• Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians: He hit .299 in 90 games, but then suffered an ankle injury.
• Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds: Duvall continues to do a lot of damage -- he’s got back-to-back seasons with at least 70 extra-base hits.
• Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles: In his first full season in the big leagues, he had an adjusted OPS+ of 120, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting.
• Corey Dickerson, Tampa Bay Rays: He made the AL All-Star team for the first time.
• Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals: He was off to a phenomenal start in 2017 with a .393 OBP when he went down with a knee injury. The Nationals plan to move him to left field in 2018.