This will be a memorable year in the life of Manny Machado. Sometime in 2018, the Baltimore Orioles will probably trade him to a World Series contender and give him the same opportunity that Justin Verlander had after landing with the Houston Astros. Then Machado will become a free agent in November and sometime before the new year, he will begin to field offers for tens of millions of dollars -- or maybe even hundreds of millions. He will be rewarded for all of the work that he put in as a kid and in his years with the Orioles, all of that time he spent in rehabilitation from two serious knee injuries.
But the return on his investment in himself may not max out unless Machado digs in and performs more consistently. In order to get the sort of record-setting contract he could pursue, Machado needs to have a strong launch year into the open market, as an on-field response to some of the questions that executives have about him -- heard as we prepared our top-10 list of third basemen.
“To be honest, he looks bored sometimes,” said one evaluator.
Said another: “I think he needs a different challenge.”
Alex Rodriguez was Machado’s idol when he was growing up as a kid in Miami, and the comparisons between the two as players are natural because they were raised in the same area, as wildly talented, thriving power-hitting infielders. But there seems to be one enormous and important difference between Alex Rodriguez and Machado.
Throughout A-Rod’s career, nobody ever questioned his focus. Ever. Potential investors viewed Rodriguez as someone of superlative skill and total commitment, someone who would do whatever he needed to do daily to be great. That helped him land two record-setting contracts -- his $252 million deal with the Rangers, which he opted out of to negotiate a $275 million monster with the Yankees.
Last year was a challenge for Machado, for sure. Early in the year, he was at the center of the Orioles’ beanball stuff with the Red Sox after colliding with Dustin Pedroia on a slide. The Orioles had the worst rotation in the majors and for the Baltimore position players, there must’ve been a Groundhog Day feel to the season: By the fourth or fifth inning on most days, Machado and the other position players would be staring at an early deficit of three or four runs. By September, the Orioles sometimes looked like the walking dead, Machado among them.
This was reflected in the feedback of evaluators solicited for their rankings of the top 10 third basemen. For some, Machado was listed fourth or fifth or even sixth, with caveats. At his best, they believe, he is the most talented defender at the position, and capable of big offensive numbers -- but that he sometimes will drift through days or weeks, particularly in the way he works through his plate appearances. His production in 2017 was remarkably erratic.
Machado’s OPS by month
April .767
May .629
June .759
July .870
August 1.039
September .537
He finished with a .259 average and a .310 on-base percentage, and as ESPN Researcher Paul Hembekides notes, his performance outside of hitter-friendly Camden Yards was flat-out awful last season -- a .268 on-base percentage in 336 plate appearances, with an Adjusted OPS+ of 80, well below major league average.
He’s going to get a great contract and make more money than almost all of his peers, because of how special a defender he is, whether he’s at shortstop (where the Orioles are expected to play him this year) or at third base. But Machado could help himself by being more consistent, in a sport that probably values that trait -- and compensates for it -- more than any other.
Our top-10 list of third basemen, which is based on the input of evaluators and the insight and data generated by ESPN’s Paul Hembekides, Sarah Langs and Mark Simon. And of all the tasks in this series, trying to rank the third basemen is the most impossible.
1. Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
When position players are compared, the Rockies’ players are always assigned demerits because, almost without exception, their numbers at home are markedly better than on the road. For hitters, there is a clear statistical advantage to playing half of their games in Coors Field. But Rockies’ officials made a fair point about this dynamic: the performance of pitchers who work in ballparks clearly favorable to them -- like the pitchers of the Dodgers, Giants or Padres -- isn’t dissected in the same way.
So sure, Nolan Arenado does do a lot of damage in his home games, but he’s a great player no matter where he is. He generated 87 extra-base hits and drove in at least 130 runs for the third consecutive season, and had a career-high .959 OPS. He has won a Gold Glove in each of his five seasons in the big leagues and finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting in each of the past three seasons, and he plays ferociously -- he’s like a middle linebacker at third base, attacking and intercepting ground balls.
From Sarah Langs: He has 104 Defensive Runs Saved at third base since his 2013 debut. The next-most at third base is Manny Machado, with 74.
Another: In 2017, he joined Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt and Wade Boggs as the only third basemen to win at least three straight Silver Slugger Awards. (Schmidt won five straight, Boggs four straight.)
2. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
He finished last season as the second baseman for the Indians, but the bulk of his exceptional work was accomplished at third base, where he made 86 of his 151 starts. One longtime coach said about Ramirez that he competes with more intensity than any player in the American League -- game to game, inning to inning, pitch to pitch. Last year, Ramirez had 91 extra-base hits and scored 107 runs, and stole 17 bases -- and for all that and more, Ramirez finished third in the AL MVP voting. Ramirez had the 10th-lowest swing-and-miss ratio in the majors.
From Langs: Ramirez, a switch-hitter, ranked in the top 20 in batting average against right-handed pitchers (.312) and left-handers (.329).
3. Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals
He makes a point of refusing to talk about his own accomplishments, his own play, and maybe that’s why Rendon is perpetually underrated. He led all third basemen in fWAR last season -- heck, he led all National Leaguers in that category -- and yet he wasn’t on the All-Star team, and he finished sixth in the MVP balloting. Rendon had more walks (84) than strikeouts (82), and 41 doubles and 25 homers and a .403 on-base percentage; he had the eighth-lowest rate of swings and misses in the majors.
4. Bryant won the MVP in 2016 and improved his batting average in 2017 to .295, and his OPS to .946. He may have been more affected by the depth problems in the Cubs’ lineup in 2017 than any other hitter, given how opposing pitchers chose to work around him more often -- his walk total climbed to 95, and he reduced his strikeout rate again, to 128; in 2015, he had 199. It was curious that Bryant’s peers did not vote him to the All-Star team last season, in a year in which Bryant would rank second behind Rendon in WAR.
5. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
After watching Machado through one series last summer, one AL evaluator walked away convinced that he is the most gifted infield defender he has ever seen, with a unique ability to generate powerful throws from any angle. Sometime in 2018, Machado will likely collect career hit No. 1,000 and career homer No. 150, in a summer when he’ll turn 26.
6. Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays
He’s great when he plays, and the last couple of seasons he has been hurt a lot. He limped through the last month of 2016, and after he hurt his calf last spring, he missed 49 games -- and as usual, Donaldson did a ton of damage when he was in the lineup. Donaldson hit 33 homers and mustered a .559 slugging percentage, and as general manager Ross Atkins said when deflecting trade rumors this winter, it’s hard to imagine the Jays competing in 2018 without Donaldson being in the middle of it. Donaldson turned 32 in December, and will be a free agent in the fall.
From Langs: Since his debut in 2013, Donaldson ranks second in WAR among all position players, trailing only Mike Trout (43.8 to 36.2).
7. Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
As we are seeing among free agents this winter, hitting home runs doesn’t necessarily get you paid well. Consistently making hard contact, on the other hand -- and this is something that Turner does very well. He ranked second to Joey Votto in walk/strikeout rate last season. He also produced the biggest drop in strikeout rate from 2016 to 2017 among qualifiers in both seasons, striking out 6.9 percent less frequently.
8. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
The deep confidence with which he plays manifested in the postseason, when Bregman got the game-winning hit to end of the craziest World Series games ever -- a single off Kenley Jansen in Game 5. Playing his first full season in the big leagues, Bregman made adjustments and batted .315 after the All-Star break, with 48 runs in 71 games and a .903 OPS. Bregman was a shortstop as an amateur, and some evaluators think he is still learning about playing third base.
9. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
Injuries kept him off the field for a lot of last season, but he still managed to hit 17 homers and drive in 71 runs in only 94 games. The future Hall of Famer achieved his 3,000th career hit, and he needs 38 homers for 500.
Sarah sent along this note: Beltre has 49.4 WAR since his age-31 season in 2010, and that is the 12th-highest total for any player since his age-31 season. The names ahead of him: Barry Bonds, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Cap Anson, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Stan Musial, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams and Roberto Clemente. In other words, a lot of inner-circle Hall of Famers.
10. Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants
There was some debate among rival evaluators if the Giants -- with an aging group of position players -- would’ve been better served to target somebody other than the 32-year-old Longoria. But he continues to be a very good player, particularly on defense -- Longoria won his third Gold Glove in 2017, and his first in seven years. He hit 20 homers for the Rays last season, after mustering 36 in 2016.
Best of the rest
• Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners: He’s coming off something of a down year, in which his OBP fell 36 points to .323, but he has become the Brian McCann of third basemen -- he has had at least 20 homers in six straight seasons. Needs five hits for 1,000 in his career.
• Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks: His defensive metrics are ugly, but he does a ton of damage at the plate -- with 133 hits and 87 walks, he posted a .357 on-base percentage last year, with 30 homers.
• Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers: This was the trade that haunted the Red Sox last year, as Shaw mashed 31 homers and accumulated an Adjusted OPS+ of 121.
• Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics: If you haven’t seen the highlights of his defense, do yourself a favor and dig up some video of him making plays last season. In only 84 games last year, he generated 2.7 WAR, and the only reason he’s not in the top 10 here is because of the sample size. He looks like he’ll be a star defender for years to come.
• Jedd Gyorko, St. Louis Cardinals: There has been some speculation this winter that the Cardinals might pursue free-agent Mike Moustakas, but they may be happy with the guy they’ve got. Gyorko is coming off a strong season in which he worked on getting lower in his set-up and helped his defensive metrics tremendously.
• Mike Moustakas, free agent: He hit a career-high 38 homers last year, and evaluators view him as a good defender.
• A final note, on Miguel Sano of the Minnesota Twins: He may not get many games at third base in 2018, which is why he’ll be listed among the best DHs.