Jose Altuve endured the Astros’ worst years, which were some of the worst in baseball history. In his first four years in the big leagues (2011-2014), Houston was a cumulative 184 games under .500. It was fitting, then, that the best of times for the franchise -- the last out in the last inning of the Astros’ World Series clincher -- was a ground ball to the guy who lived through the worst of times. Altuve threw out Corey Seager and then went nuts, like the rest of his teammates.
His circumstances may also present the first serious challenge to the Astros’ reign as one of baseball’s pre-eminent teams, because only two years remain before Altuve will be eligible for free agency -- and you wouldn’t blame baseball’s best second baseman if he went for the big money, because his contract has been incredibly team-friendly.
Altuve signed a four-year deal with fifth- and sixth-year options in the midst of the 2013 season. The Astros bet that Altuve would remain productive and guaranteed him $12.5 million, and their return on investment has been staggering. Houston picked up the 2018 option for $6 million. Assuming that Altuve’s 2019 option is also exercised (at $6.5 million), he’ll make $23.75 million over the six years of his contract. Altuve has averaged six wins above replacement (WAR) over the past four seasons, and for the sake of argument, let’s say he does that for a couple of more years.
If you figure that each win above replacement is worth about $8 million to the Astros, that means that during the six years of his deal, he will have provided $288 million in value to the organization.
He is a legacy player for all that he has accomplished in what has been a Hall of Fame career trajectory thus far, so you would assume the Astros will do all they can to re-sign him.
Altuve heads the list of the top 10 second basemen, of course. The rankings are based on input from MLB evaluators, with input from ESPN researchers Sarah Langs and Paul Hembekides.
1. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Altuve became the first player since Ichiro Suzuki to have at least 200 hits in four straight seasons. He already has 1,250 hits, 243 doubles, 561 runs and 231 stolen bases. Sometime in the year ahead, he’s likely to hit the 100th homer of his career; he has 84. He won the American League MVP award last season and has three top-10 finishes in the voting. He’s the fourth second baseman in MLB history with at least four seasons of 200 hits already, and the other three are in the Hall of Fame. He’s 27 years old.
From Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information: Altuve hit at least .300 with an .850 OPS in every month except September/October -- when he hit .291 with an .832 OPS.
2. Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins
He has been a bedrock performer for the Twins: at least 147 games in each of the past five seasons, four straight years of 101 or more runs and 127 homers from 2014 to 2017. He collected his first Gold Glove in 2017 and continues to be one of baseball’s better baserunners; he helped lead a re-emphasis on baserunning for the Twins last season.
3. Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners
His adjusted OPS+ of 112 last season was his lowest since 2008. He is 35 years old, and as Derek Jeter noted in the waning years of his career, when you slump as a young player, it’s just a slump; when you’re older, there are questions about whether you're losing your skill. Cano’s accumulated knowledge, swing and natural ability as a hitter should keep him as an average player for a while, which is good for the Mariners, because Cano has six years and $144 million remaining on his contract.
If he never played another game, his career would still be remarkable. Sometime during the 2018 season, he’s likely to pass 2,500 hits and 1,200 runs for his career. He’s a lifetime .305 hitter with six top-10 finishes for MVP and a couple of Gold Gloves. The metrics suggest that he is still at least a solid defender. From Langs: Cano has 289 career homers as a second baseman, the second most in MLB history behind Jeff Kent (351).
4. Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals
There has been a lot of team regret over multiyear deals, but in the case of Murphy -- who is entering the final year of a three-year, $37.5 million contract negotiated at a time when there was very little leverage for him in the market -- he has been an amazing value for the Nationals, averaging about 5 WAR over his first two years in Washington.
Neither the Mets nor anybody else apparently expected Murphy to build on the power he showed in the second half and playoffs of 2015, but he has had 146 extra-base hits for Washington over the past two years while batting .334 with a .387 OBP. Defense is a challenge for him, of course, but that hasn’t prevented him (or his teams) from becoming an October regular. He has been the second baseman for three consecutive NL East championship teams.
5. Jonathan Schoop, Baltimore Orioles
Once Manny Machado and Zach Britton are either traded or walk away as free agents in the next calendar year, the focus for Orioles fans will shift to Schoop and the question of whether Baltimore can retain him. It may already be too late. Schoop has four-plus years of service time in the big leagues and will be eligible for free agency after the 2019 season at age 27.
With all parts of his game now evolved, he stands to cash in big. Schoop has missed only two games the past two seasons, and last year he had his best offensive performance, racking up 32 homers among 67 extra-base hits and batting .293. He is a notorious free swinger but showed a little more plate discipline last year, and this seemed to pay off: Schoop cut his rate of swinging at pitches out of the zone to 36.3 percent, a career low, and his on-base percentage climbed to a career-high .338. He is an above-average defender, perhaps as good as anybody other than Cano in turning a double play.
6. DJ LeMahieu, Colorado Rockies
He has evolved from something of a surprise -- certainly to the Cubs, who traded him to the Rockies -- to one of baseball’s most consistent middle infielders. He has hit over .300 in three straight seasons, won a couple of Gold Gloves and can be penciled in for about 150 games. He tied for the MLB lead (with Yolmer Sanchez) in defensive runs saved (DRS) last season.
7. Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals
Raul Mondesi Jr. was the Royals’ second baseman at the outset of last season, but he didn’t hit enough to keep the job. Merrifield, who came through the Royals’ system as a utility man, stepped in and seized the opportunity, batting .288 and posting an adjusted OPS+ of 105, better than LeMahieu, Ian Kinsler or Javier Baez. Manager Ned Yost told the Kansas City Star in September: “Now he’s a fixture.” He led the AL in stolen bases and finished first among AL second basemen in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric. He was tied for sixth among all second basemen in DRS (with plus-5).
8. Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
He might be among the most difficult MLB players to evaluate because of the Jekyll and Hyde nature of his play. At his best, he’s a superlative defender with an unparalleled ability to apply a tag and unusual power for a middle infielder. But at his worst, evaluators say he gives away too many at-bats, with a lot of strikeouts. “He drives you crazy watching him, to be honest,” one scout said. But he’s 25 years old and will probably get even more time as the Cubs’ second baseman next season.
9. Cesar Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies
His first good season, in 2016, was met with some skepticism, but he backed that up with an almost identical performance in 2017, hitting .294 (again), with a .373 on-base percentage. His wRC+ of 111 was tied for eighth in the majors last season.
10. Ian Kinsler, Los Angeles Angels
Not long after former Tigers manager Brad Ausmus joined the Angels’ front office as a special assistant, the team dealt for Kinsler -- presumably with Ausmus’ consent, because he has loved the way Kinsler plays. The second baseman is 35 years old, and a lot of his offensive numbers dipped last year, but he continues to be a good second baseman, good baserunner and a steady source of energy and intensity, which is greatly valued over the course of a long season.
From Langs: Kinsler has 37 defensive runs saved since the start of the 2015 season, 20 more than anybody else in that span.
Best of the rest
• Joe Panik, San Francisco Giants. He hit .288 with 10 homers last season.
• Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates. He probably would be in the top 10 if not for his versatility -- he started 79 games at second last year, 37 at third and six in the outfield, and he had a 3.3 WAR.
• Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox. Another year, another surgery. Considering the extent of his knee trouble last year, it’s remarkable that he finished the season on the field -- and with a .293 average, no less. But moving forward, he may have to make concessions to age (he’s now 34) and play less to give himself the best chance to stay as healthy as possible.
• Jed Lowrie, Oakland Athletics. His OPS of .808 was his highest since 2010.
• Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians. It’s unclear what role he’ll play in 2018. But when he’s healthy, he hits.
• Neil Walker, free agent. He had an adjusted OPS+ of 111 last season, when he dealt with back trouble.