You could make a case that the most inefficient long-term investments over the past decade have been made with first basemen, because of longstanding conventional wisdom that players at this position could remain effective for longer since less defensive rigor is required at this spot. That thinking seems to be disappearing, with front offices veering and making significant adjustments in how they spend on first basemen in recent years.
Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are all-time great hitters, slam-dunk first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famers who should be picked unanimously, but the back end of their careers -- and of those of other first basemen -- could get very ugly.
Pujols hit 23 homers and drove in 101 runs last season, but his production relative to the rest of the league was rough: He had an Adjusted OPS+ of 81, well below league average, and the Angels owe him $124 million, or more than twice as much money as the highest-paid free-agent first basemen over the past two winters. Pujols will turn 38 later this month, and while there is an expectation with the Angels’ organization that a surgery-free offseason and weight loss will help him perform in 2018, the management of this issue -- respectfully handling the decline of a great player -- might be the front office’s greatest challenge in the years ahead.
Cabrera batted .249 last season as he struggled with back issues that might hamper him for the rest of his career, and he is owed $184 million over the next six years. He will be 35 years old in April.
Joey Votto, 34, also is owed a lot of money for a lot more years -- $157 million over the next six seasons (including a $7 million buyout on a 2024 team option) -- and he continues to be an elite player and might be for the foreseeable future because of his historic ability to reach base. But Adrian Gonzalez’s long-term deal, initially signed with the Red Sox and later assumed in a trade with the Dodgers, did not end well for L.A. Gonzalez battled injury last season and was supplanted by Cody Bellinger, and after a trade with Atlanta, the 35-year-old Gonzalez was released before this, the final year of his seven-year, $154 million deal.
Since Cabrera signed his extension -- with a chorus of rival executives questioning the sanity and the timing of the contract, given that Cabrera wasn’t eligible for free agency for 18 more months after his deal was finalized -- the contracts for first basemen seem to reflect the larger evolution of thought in the industry about how to invest in the position, and in any free-agent position player already in the middle of their respective careers.
The notable deals among first basemen in the aftermath of Cabrera’s contract:
• After the 2015 season, the Baltimore Orioles signed Chris Davis, at age 29, to a seven-year deal which, with enormous deferrals, is worth $128 million.
• The San Francisco Giants signed Brandon Belt to a six-year, $79 million contract at the outset of the 2016 season, when Belt was about to turn 28.
• Last winter, the Colorado Rockies signed the 31-year-old Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70 million contract, and already, Desmond has been shifted into more of a super-utility role.
• The San Diego Padres signed the 26-year-old Wil Myers to a six-year, $83 million deal that was widely panned within the industry at the time it went down, and one year into the deal, San Diego is considering moving Myers back to the outfield.
If each of those teams could have do-overs on those contracts, they probably would, especially in light of how teams prefer to spend on younger players. From ESPN Stats & Information researcher Sarah Langs, the number of contracts of four-plus years signed in the offseason for players who would be 30 years or older the following Opening Days:
2013: 11
2014: 15
2015: 9
2016: 7
2017: None, so far.
(In contrast, Anthony Rizzo signed his team-friendly seven-year, $41 million contract -- with two option years -- at age 23 in 2013, when he didn’t have much leverage.)
With fewer older first basemen signing very long-term deals, more and more veterans have returned to the market annually -- think Mike Napoli, who has bounced from the Red Sox to the Indians to the Rangers and is a free agent again. And teams have been choosing to sign first baseman to short-term deals. The Boston Red Sox giving Mitch Moreland a two-year, $13 million deal this winter, for example, or the Indians signing Yonder Alonso to a two-year deal for $16 million. Carlos Santana is at the top of the market this winter, getting a three-year, $60 million deal with the Phillies -- exactly the same as Edwin Encarnacion’s contract with Cleveland last winter.
This is the trend that free agent Eric Hosmer and agent Scott Boras are swimming against this winter. With that as the backdrop, our list of the top 10 first basemen in baseball, based on the input from evaluators and ESPN researchers Paul Hembekides, Mark Simon and Langs.
1. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Votto made up his mind before last season that he wanted to do everything he could, within each plate appearance, to not strike out. As the ball-strike count got deeper, Votto would choke up on the bat a little more, he would shorten his swing -- and the contact rate for the best hitter in baseball rose, dramatically. His rate of swing-and-misses fell from 7.1 to 5.7 percent, and his rate of swinging at pitches outside the zone fell to 15.8 percent, the best in the majors.
In this way, Votto reduced his strikeouts from 120 in 2016 to just 83 last season, and he drew 134 walks, with 71 extra-base hits, and finished the season with a .454 on-base percentage. He also led all first basemen in defensive runs saved. And while a lot of evaluators consider some of the defensive metrics a work in progress in how they properly reflect the most valued skills at the position, this was Votto’s best season in DRS -- and significantly better than in 2016, when he scored a minus-14.
About Votto’s Hall of Fame résumé: His second-place finish in the 2017 National League MVP voting was the seventh time he has finished in the top 10, including his first-place year of 2010. His career on-base percentage of .428 is 11th best all time, and eight of the 10 ahead of him played all or the bulk of their respective careers before 1940. He has reached base 2,629 times in his career via hit, walk or hit by pitch.
2. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Injuries limited him to 117 games, and yet Freeman still had 63 extra-base hits, drew 65 walks and scored 84 runs. Matt Kemp’s presence seemed to help him in 2016, but Kemp regressed last year and now he is gone, and the Braves are again in need of lineup protection for Freeman. Or else Freeman will again need to make the same choice that Votto has sometimes faced: Expand the strike zone or take walks.
3. Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
He was probably the front-runner to win the NL MVP last season, before injuries seemingly slowed him in the last month. Goldschmidt batted .171 in September and still finished the year with a .404 on-base percentage, 117 runs, 120 RBIs, 73 extra-base hits and 18 stolen bases. He’s a high-end defender and a really good baserunner, as well. “I don’t see too many players who are as consistent as he is,” said one evaluator. “He’s a model for how everybody should want to play.”
The Diamondbacks are quickly approaching the window in which they will have to make a decision about whether and how to invest in Goldschmidt for the second half of his career: Arizona holds a $14.5 million option on the slugger for 2019, and after that, he’ll be eligible for free agency.
4. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
Like some other players, Rizzo seemed to draw from Votto’s example last season and reduced his strikeouts, while increasing his on-base percentage to a career-high .392. He and Eric Hosmer are regarded as two of the better defensive first basemen by their peers because of their willingness -- their desire, really -- to throw to bases.
5. Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
He does not have the same kind of career résumé as a lot of the folks lower on this list, but given his athleticism, defense and power, you’d be hard-pressed to find executives who would take most first baseman over Bellinger. The Astros crushed him with breaking pitches in the World Series, and undoubtedly, he’ll see a lot of that this year; but if the first year of his career was any indication, he’ll figure it out. Bellinger already is an elite defender and baserunner, and some teammates have raved about his approach to his work.
6. Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
With the Tigers and Royals spinning downward into a rebuilding cycle and the Indians perhaps working with a window of opportunity that could last two years, it makes sense that the White Sox believe they have a shot to start winning in the near future -- and they have kept a high asking price on Abreu in trade discussions. Abreu, who will turn 31 later this month, is under team control for the next two years, and he has been a metronome of production: Abreu has at least 176 hits in each of his four seasons in the big leagues, 124 homers and four straight years of 100 or more RBIs.
7. Eric Hosmer, free agent
His platform season for free agency was really good -- the 28-year-old Hosmer had his career high in on-base percentage (.385) and slugging percentage (.495), and he played every game for the Royals. Hosmer has missed a total of eight games over the past three seasons. One American League executive agreed with one argument that Boras has been casting into the market: Hosmer fosters success. “He’s someone you win with,” said the exec.
8. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
The Nationals had enough concern about Zimmerman going into 2017 that they signed Adam Lind to be a safety net -- one that wasn’t needed. Zimmerman lives year-round in the D.C. area and works out at the ballpark on most days, and Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo remembers watching Zimmerman hit before spring training last year and seeing progress. “It was the first offseason [in a while that] he wasn’t rehabbing an injury,” Rizzo wrote in a text. “He was in preparation for the season.” Finally healthy, Zimmerman had a monster season, hitting 36 homers, posting a .930 OPS and making the All-Star team for the first time since 2009.
9. Carlos Santana, Philadelphia Phillies
He devoted himself to being a better defender, and with his consistent ability to reach base -- he has a .365 OBP in his career -- the Phillies decided to invest in Santana to play first base and keep Rhys Hoskins in the outfield for the next few years. Santana does tend to go through extensive periods in which his power disappears. At the All-Star break last season, Santana had 10 homers and a .238 average.
10. Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
There are metrics suggesting that more mistakes were made on ball-strike calls on Carpenter than any hitter in the majors. Using TruMedia data, Sarah Langs notes that Carpenter had 54 framed strikes called on him, the second-highest total in the majors -- that’s pitches that had a 25 percent chance or lower of being called a strike, based on data on that location. But in spite of that, Carpenter consistently reaches base. His on-base percentage over the past two seasons was .380 and .384, respectively, and now that the Cardinals have bolstered their lineup with Marcell Ozuna -- with perhaps another hitter on the way -- Carpenter could settle into one spot in the order. Last year, he batted leadoff most of the time, and he had a .418 OBP and scored 66 runs in 89 games.
Best of the rest
• Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays. He slashed his strikeout percentage dramatically, from 32.8 percent in 2016 to 20.1 percent last season, and had his best season, with 38 homers.
• Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins. Coming off his best season since 2013, Mauer needs only 14 hits for 2,000 in his career. This will be the last year of the contract he signed in 2010.
• Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers. He’s such a gifted hitter that after a winter of rehab, he could bounce back. With Victor Martinez set to begin the final year of his four-year, $68 million deal, this could be the last season Cabrera serves as a first baseman.
• Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers. The 24-year-old moved around to different spots last year, playing some outfield, some third and some first; and because of surprising athleticism in someone as big as he is, he could continue to do that. Last year, Gallo had just 94 hits in 145 games -- but he scored 85 runs, because of his 41 homers.
• Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics. He hit 24 homers in his 189 at-bats for the Athletics last season, and based on that, a reasonable argument could be made that he should be in the Top 10. Much more importantly, his emergence prompted Oakland to trade Ryon Healy so they could station Olson at first.