The amateur draft might be the last safe haven of the starting pitcher, the last area of the game where they possess pre-eminence over relief pitchers. When given a choice, teams will almost always prefer the starting pitcher, a small reminder of those times -- not long ago -- when bullpen guys were mostly viewed as pitchers who couldn’t cut it in a rotation.
But now relievers get more respect, more innings and, most importantly, more money. In the offseason of 2011-2012, starters got about 60 percent of the money doled out to free-agent pitchers -- $299.4 million of the $465 million spent. This has changed dramatically in recent seasons. Last winter, free-agent relievers got $421.2 million and starters $194.6 million, or 68 percent to relievers. So far this winter, relievers have been paid two-thirds of the dollars devoted to pitching: $274.8 million, compared to $142 million spent on starting pitching.
When Andrew Miller signed his four-year, $36 million contract with the Yankees prior to the 2015 season, that contract was considered a shocking luxury to rival executives, the kind of deal that only a big-market team could consider. Just a few years later, a $9 million annual salary is the going rate for a good reliever, paid this winter by the Phillies to Tommy Hunter (two years, $18 million), by the Rockies to Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw (both signing for three years, $27 million) and by the Rangers to Mike Minor (three years, $28 million, with an opportunity to start).
There has been a lot of focus on the high-end position players and starting pitchers who figure to be free agents next fall: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson and perhaps Clayton Kershaw, who can opt out of his contract. But the market of free-agent relievers might be where the big-market teams such as the Yankees and Dodgers invest their money, with Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Cody Allen and David Robertson, among others, available.
Here is our list of the top 10 relievers, based on the input of evaluators, with help from Sarah Langs, Paul Hembekides and Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information:
1. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Maybe the most shocking moment in baseball in 2017 occurred in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the World Series, when Marwin Gonzalez lifted an opposite-field home run off Jansen to tie the score. It was akin to Kirk Gibson's stunning Dennis Eckersley with a home run in the 1988 World Series and to the Red Sox's tying the score against Mariano Rivera in Game 4 of the 2004 AL Championship Series -- because of the greatness of the pitcher. Like Eckersley, like Rivera, Jansen routinely gives opponents nothing: no baserunners, no solid contact, no sliver of hope.
In 68⅓ innings in the regular season last season, Jansen allowed only seven walks and struck out 109. That strikeout-to-walk ratio of 15.57 was the best in the majors. Jansen relies on the cut fastball, and his rate last season was even higher than the single-season best of Rivera (12.83), the original Cutter Master.
“If you rated trust -- who would you most trust with a lead -- he’d be your guy,” one evaluator said of Jansen.
2. Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
He was healthy again and created one of the best seasons by any reliever in any year last season, with the hitters telling you everything about the difficulty of trying to cope with his stuff. He faced 254 batters and struck out 126, almost exactly half. His strikeout percentage of 49.6 percent was by far the best in baseball. He had the highest rate of swing-and-miss by any pitcher in the majors last season, at 19.8 percent. Opponents batted only .140 against him, the lowest rate in the AL, and that 49.6 percent strikeout rate wasn’t just MLB’s best last season. It was also the highest ever, shattering Eric Gagne’s record (44.8 percent) by a reliever with at least 65 innings.
3. Andrew Miller, Cleveland Indians
Even while fighting some knee trouble that affected his command, Miller continued to be baseball’s most dominant left-handed reliever, striking out 95 of the 244 batters he faced, with an Adjusted ERA+ of 319. He’ll be a free agent next fall, and odds are that Miller, who will be 33 years old in May, will be making a whole lot more than that $9 million salary that moved the bar the last time he was a free agent.
4. Wade Davis, Colorado Rockies
In a winter in which bullpen guys have been well-paid, he was paid the highest salary ever for a reliever, at $17.33 million annually, when he got a three-year, $52 million deal, with a vesting option for a fourth year that’s very makeable if he stays healthy. The difference between Davis and the rest of the relievers in the market? He has proven his dominance in the role of closer. Over the past four seasons, Davis has an ERA of 1.45, with nine homers and 313 strikeouts in 241⅓ innings. His strikeout rate of 12.1 last season was the second-best of his career.
5. Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers
He started the year as a setup man for the Brewers but graduated into the role of closer, and by season’s end, he was the rare workhorse closer: He compiled 39 saves while leading the National League in appearances with 76. He does not give in to hitters, which is why he doesn’t allow many home runs (just six last season) and why, in part, he’ll give up more than his share of walks (40). Knebel’s curveball was among the highest rated, for value, in the big leagues.
6. Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Like Wade Davis earlier in his career, Bradley seemed transformed by his move to the bullpen. He evolved from a starting pitcher who gave up a lot of hits to a dominant reliever, with his average fastball climbing from 92.4 mph to 96.4 mph. As with Dellin Betances, there is an enormous gap in velocity between his fastball and his primary off-speed pitch, which makes him difficult to time.
“He looks like a different guy,” a rival NL executive said. “His confidence shows now. He is sure he can do this [job].”
Despite pitching in the homer haven in Arizona, Bradley allowed just four long balls in 73 innings last season.
7. Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
He’s still really, really good, and last season, he punched out 69 hitters in 50⅓ innings. But his pure stuff seemed to regress somewhat last season, and Chapman, who turns 30 in February, might never be quite as overpowering as he has been in the past. According to FanGraphs, the value of his fastball fell from 18.6 in 2016 to 9.2 in 2017. Chapman altered his fastball late in the season because he felt that the ball was cutting on him too much, and he was better after that.
8. Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals
In an era in which hitters have worked to changed their launch angles and get low pitches into the air, Doolittle cuts up hitters in the upper part of the strike zone with his fastball -- and hitters have clearly struggled to adjust. According to FanGraphs, Doolittle threw fastballs at the fourth-highest rate in 2017 but surrendered the lowest rate of hard contact by any reliever in the majors in 2017. That’ll work. The Nationals’ closer situation finally seems settled for the foreseeable future because Doolittle’s deal contains options that run through the 2020 season.
9. David Robertson, New York Yankees
According to the system used by FanGraphs, Robertson’s curveball had the greatest value of any off-speed pitch deployed by any pitcher last season, and it worked for him. He had the lowest WHIP of his career, at 0.85, and allowed only 35 hits in 68⅓ innings, including just 14 hits and two homers in 35 innings after he was traded to the Yankees.
10. Chad Green, New York Yankees
The Yankees’ right-hander is a classic example of how spin rate makes a difference. His average fastball velocity of 96 mph -- pretty good in this era but nothing special -- apparently looks different to hitters than that of a lot of other relievers, given his effectiveness. His spin rate of 2,490 rpm is higher than that of any reliever on this list, and last season, Green seemed to just throw the ball past hitters through the middle of the zone. He allowed only 34 hits in 69 innings, with an FIP of 1.75.
From Sarah Langs, Green's holding opponents to a .440 OPS tied for the lowest among all relievers with a minimum of 50 innings pitched, matching the mark of Andrew Miller and edging Craig Kimbrel’s (.444).
Best of the rest
• Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians: Mark Simon notes that just three pitchers have 30 saves in each of the past three seasons: Jansen, Kimbrel and Allen.
• Felipe Rivero, Pittsburgh Pirates: If the Pirates trade Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison, if would make sense for them to also deal Rivero, who is coveted by rival evaluators because of his incredible changeup.
• Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays: The Toronto closer presents something of a quandary because the numbers indicate that he belongs in the top-10 list. Osuna finished last season third in fWAR among all relievers with more than 20 innings, and he was ninth in xFIP and had the third-lowest walk rate. But he really struggled after the All-Star break, blowing six of his 23 save chances. Maybe it was his heavy workload at an early age: Osuna racked up 207⅔ innings during the 2015-2017 seasons, the most by any full-time closer. Maybe the slump was related to an anxiety issue that Osuna spoke of last June.
Maybe this was just a blip, the sort of thing that Brad Lidge and other elite closers have overcome, or maybe it was something more than that.
• Tommy Kahnle, New York Yankees: He conquered his past command trouble and notched 96 strikeouts in 62⅔ innings in 2017.
• Dellin Betances, New York Yankees: By the end of last year’s American League Championship Series, his manager stopped using him in meaningful situations because he couldn’t throw strikes. But this is how good Betances is, how difficult he is to hit: Twenty-nine other teams would love to have the opportunity to get him back on track. “Hell, we’d take him,” a rival manager said last season. “Think they’d move him?”
He’s 6-foot-8 and throws 98 mph, with a breaking ball about 12-15 mph slower, which means that the best hope for a lot of hitters is that Betances will lose the strike zone and they’ll draw a walk. Last season, Betances generated the highest rate of soft contact, and it wasn’t close.
The Yankees have the bullpen depth to cover for Betances if he cannot recover his command in 2018, and really, he has more to lose than they do. If he bounces back, he will be the No. 1 free-agent reliever available after the 2019 season, at age 31, with tens of millions of dollars at stake.
• Pat Neshek, Philadelphia Phillies: He continues to dominate hitters with his slider.
• Brad Hand, San Diego Padres: He was available for trade throughout the 2017 season, and no team stepped up to give San Diego GM A.J. Preller what he was looking for. Now Hand’s value has seemingly gone up after another season of refined excellence.