The 2017 World Series was graced by a left-hander who ranks among the greatest pitchers of all time, a right-hander who is likely to be inducted into the Hall of Fame and another left-hander who recently won a Cy Young Award. But despite those résumés and the past successes of others, the starting pitchers accounted for just 65⅔ innings pitched over the seven games.
That’s an average of fewer than five innings per start. No starter threw a pitch beyond the seventh inning.
That’s where we are now, with analytics so embedded in the decision-making that managers are strongly discouraged from allowing some pitchers from even trying to get through an opposing lineup for a third time. The safer bet, statistically, is on the growing army of relievers who are assuming a greater share of innings -- and, as we’ve seen this winter, getting paid more for their work.
The ace pitchers who once lorded over the art of pitching aren’t nearing extinction yet, but there are fewer than ever before, adding even more value to those trusted to face the enemy lineup a third or even a fourth time.
Within that context, we start our top-10 series with this: the top 10 starting pitchers in major league baseball, based on input from evaluators and ESPN researchers Paul Hembekides and Sarah Langs.
1. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
By winning his second consecutive Cy Young Award in 2017 and his third overall, Scherzer has probably assured himself of election to the Hall of Fame one day, having checked the box for position pre-eminence. Wins and losses aren’t given weight by statistical analysts -- and no pitcher loves numbers more than Max Scherzer -- but over the past five seasons, he is 89-33 with an ERA of 2.87, and he’s compiled 1,092⅓ innings.
From Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information: Opponents batted .178 against Max Scherzer last season, the lowest mark by an National League pitcher in the live-ball era (since 1920). He led all NL pitchers in strikeouts, WHIP and WAR.
2. Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
Kluber still hasn’t talked about what ailed him during the Indians’ division series loss to the Yankees, and baseball’s most prominent stoic probably never will. But he just wasn’t the same, with his velocity and command diminished. He had owned hitters leading up to the postseason. From Langs: Kluber went on the disabled list with a back injury in May, and when he returned in June, he was the best pitcher in baseball the rest of the way. From June 1, he led MLB starting pitchers in wins (15), ERA (1.62), WHIP (0.76) and K/BB ratio (9.7).
With that four-month surge, Kluber managed to beat out Chris Sale for the AL Cy Young Award, and you could make a reasonable case that Kluber should be No. 1 on this list. Few pitchers can make a baseball move in the way Kluber does. His late, lateral movement and camouflaged delivery make it difficult for hitters to discern the trajectory and velocity of his pitches. Kluber led all starting pitchers in swing-and-miss rate last season at 15.6 percent.
3. Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have already had conversations about altering the pace of his work after his experience in 2017. Sale was baseball’s best pitcher for a lot of the year, striking out 178 batters in 127⅔ innings before the All-Star break, stifling hitters with the combination of his mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider. But as those innings and pitches piled up for him, Sale’s slider seemed to flatten out down the stretch, and his results changed substantively: After allowing just 15 homers in the first five months of the season, he allowed nine in the last month. This sort of late-year fade has happened before in Sale’s career, so presumably the Red Sox will curtail his innings and pitches in the first half, maybe even eliminating a start or two, the way the Dodgers and Cubs have with some of their starters in recent years.
But regardless of how the Cy Young voting turned out, Sale probably would still win a poll of opposing hitters assessing the toughest pitcher to face, because there’s nobody like him, with the angle of his delivery and the elbows and knees and velocity he seems to fire toward the plate.
4. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
When Kershaw pitches, an evaluator noted, he continues to be as good as anyone ever. “But there’s no getting around the physical concerns, is there?” he asked rhetorically. “That’s two straight seasons he’s been out for an extended period.”
He pitched 175 innings in 27 starts in 2017, after working 149 innings in 21 starts in 2016. Kershaw, who turns 30 in March, hasn’t detailed his exact conditions for reporters, but there is an assumption among scouts and evaluators that his back/hip thing -- whatever it is -- probably will be regressive, especially for a pitcher as big as Kershaw; for someone who launches himself at hitters after pausing himself at the top of his delivery, pitch after pitch; and for someone who trains as hard as Kershaw does. There is uncertainty about how long he’ll pitch, a question that could play out at the end of next season, when he will have the opportunity to opt out of his contract.
For now, however, he continues to dominate. Last season, he led the NL in ERA for the fifth time in his 10-year career. He led in Adjusted ERA+ for the fourth time. He is the all-time leader among starting pitchers in that category, and it’s not even close.
5. Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Think about this: Justin Verlander passed through waivers unclaimed last August. If the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and other big-market teams could do it over again, it's hard to imagine that Verlander would pass through again. In five September starts with the Astros he had a 1.06 ERA, then posting a 2.21 ERA in 36⅔ postseason innings. Last summer, the amount of money owed to Verlander scared some teams, given his intermittent struggles in the first half. But now, a two-year, $56 million deal -- the Astros’ commitment to him for 2018 and 2019 -- looks pretty good.
He turns 35 in February, but his average fastball velocity of 95.2 mph in 2017 was his highest since 2010. Verlander is devoted to physical conditioning and the idea of continuing as a power pitcher for years to come -- and he has made some adjustments in training and prestart preparation along the way -- so with 188 career wins, it’s possible that he could zoom past 200 next summer, on his way to Cooperstown.
From Langs: Verlander had the most valuable fastball in the majors in 2017, according to FanGraphs, worth 32.9 runs saved.
6. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
There was a lot of concern within the Giants organization about Bumgarner’s shoulder after his dirt bike accident last spring, but Bumgarner came back slightly ahead of schedule and pitched as effectively as ever, walking just 16 batters in 84 innings after the All-Star break. He’s 28, and with another strong season in 2018, the Giants will probably have to start negotiating his next contract in earnest. San Francisco holds a $12 million option on the lefty for 2019.
7. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Said one scout: “If your ranking was only about pure stuff, he’d be No. 1.” Clayton Kershaw has a great fastball, slider and curve, and similarly, there are other pitchers who have mastered two or three pitches. But Strasburg has four dominant pitches -- his fastball, slider, curve and changeup, all swing-and-miss pitches, all overpowering. The questions about Strasburg are always about health and endurance, and last year, he accumulated 175⅓ innings in 28 starts. His low home run rate reveals the difficulty that hitters have in trying to make aggressive contact.
From Langs: Strasburg led all qualified pitchers in homers per nine innings (0.7) and ranked first in the NL in fielding independent pitching (2.72).
8. Luis Severino, New York Yankees
OK, so he’s got some stuff to learn about pitching in the postseason, about controlling the October adrenaline. But during the summer, he was special, racking up 230 strikeouts in 193⅓ innings and holding opponents to a .266 on-base percentage. With Noah Syndergaard down for most of the year, Severino became the hardest-throwing starter in the majors, with an average fastball velocity of 97.6 mph. Most starting pitchers have become sprinters, throwing as hard as they can from the first inning and gradually losing stuff, but Severino could be like his generation’s Verlander, with an ability to maintain or even increase his velocity in the late innings. Like the Rockies’ pitchers, Severino’s numbers will probably always be skewed by his time in Yankee Stadium: Last year, he had a 2.24 ERA in road starts with only six homers allowed in 96⅓ innings, as compared to 3.71 and 15 homers in his outings at home.
9. Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians
The right-hander has two dominant off-speed pitches, his slider and changeup. On the strength of those, only Corey Kluber and Chris Sale had better strikeout-to-walk ratios in the American League than Carrasco did last season, in the most complete performance of his career -- in his ninth year with the Cleveland organization. Remember, it was during the 2009 season that the Indians insisted the Phillies include him in their trade of star lefty Cliff Lee, and it wasn’t until Carrasco was 28 years old that he threw enough innings in a season to qualify for the league’s ERA title. But through his work with former Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway, Carrasco has become one of baseball’s most refined starting pitchers.
From Langs: His changeup was the second-most valuable changeup in 2017 behind Jason Vargas, according to FanGraphs -- he generated 18.1 runs saved with the pitch.
10. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
Through the layers of Mets injuries and last season, deGrom was consistent, usually pitching into the seventh or eighth inning. He had two really ugly turns, against the Brewers and Rangers in the first third of the season, but after that deGrom was locked in, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 16 of his last 20 outings. Keep in mind that this was all happening in spite of the Mets’ horrific glove work -- the Mets ranked dead last in the majors in defensive runs saved. With a bit more help and a more competitive team, deGrom could climb in these rankings.
Best of the rest
• Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs. Paul Hembekides of ESPN Stats & Information argued strongly for his inclusion in the top 10. “He has been elite in run prevention and has pitched great in leverage over the last two seasons, and despite his relatively low strikeout rates, Statcast metrics view him as a top-10 pitcher because of his ability to suppress contact.”
• Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks. He will climb past 2,500 career innings in 2018, with his command as good as ever -- he had 45 walks and 215 strikeouts in 202⅓ innings last season.
• Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets. Injuries limited him to just seven starts last season. If he makes it through a full season again, he’ll be back on this list, given the dominance of his stuff.
• Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros. The left-hander is dealing with a foot problem this offseason, after apparently working through the issue late in the 2017 season. When he’s OK physically, he’s Cy Young caliber, and he has a lot on the line in 2018, with free agency looming.
• Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks. He altered the tempo of his delivery midseason, and that change seemed to improve the effectiveness of his fastball and propel him into the upper echelon of starting pitchers.