Major League Baseball's draft is over, so now general managers and club presidents can focus on the decisions of whether to buy or sell before the trade deadline -- to add incrementally or go in big, to fully commit to a rebuild, or to just hang on in the hopes of a turnaround and wild-card chase.
Only 46 days remain before the July 31 deadline, and club officials from both leagues offered some thoughts on where specific teams stand:
Ready to buy now
Houston has an enormous lead in the American League West, but the Astros also have developed a monster problem because of their rotation injuries. Even before the season started, the expectation within the industry was that the Astros would add a good rotation piece, more likely someone who they could control beyond the 2017 season. But with Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. and Charlie Morton all out of action, the sense among rival evaluators is that the Astros want to push to jump the market and make a deal. "The need for a starting pitcher is right now," an AL official said.
The perception of other teams is that if Boston could find a suitable deal for a third baseman now, it might move. Todd Frazier of the White Sox has been available for months, but the fact that he’s a right-handed hitter could make him less than a perfect fit for a team that is already a little heavy on the right side. The Red Sox scouted the left-handed hitting Mike Moustakas last month (along with others), but the Royals haven’t indicated to the market yet that they’re ready to sell.
In theory, the Red Sox and Padres would be a match for the switch-hitting Yangervis Solarte, a good, experienced player. But Boston officials were enraged last year by how the Padres’ front office handled the medical information in the Drew Pomeranz trade, and executives with other teams aren’t sure if bygones are bygones yet. "I don’t see those two making a deal again," a longstanding NL official said.
The emergence of Brian Johnson and the return of David Price have alleviated Boston’s need for a starting pitcher, but it may be that the Red Sox could add a rotation piece from what is expected to be a flooded market of starters. Finding a deal could take some time, if the Red Sox balk at the high asking prices that figure to stand at least through the third week of July.
One way or the other, the bullpen has to get better in order for Washington to have a shot at a World Series berth. The most obvious solution now would be for the Nats to pursue David Robertson of the White Sox, the most prominent and most experienced closer available. But the relief market is thought to be much more thin than in 2016, when Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Mark Melancon were all moved. And the White Sox are in a position to extract financial and prospect concessions for Robertson, who is owed about $20 million for the rest of this year and next year.
Washington may be looking for additional bullpen depth beyond a closer. They’ve got a great team, one capable of playing through the last game in October. But the Nationals have a serious problem and the alarm was sounded this week by manager Dusty Baker. "We need some help," he said. "We need some help big time. We've been knowing that all along."
They have been fishing around somewhat frantically for a left-handed reliever, rival execs say, and could use starting pitching to help slow the recent collapse. But they might have to be willing to take on some payroll in order to effect meaningful change.
Inevitable buyers
They could use some rotation help, but the perception among Brian Cashman’s peers is that he will wait until some of the high asking prices for the best starting pitchers -- Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, Jose Quintana, etc. -- might start to drop. "I don’t see him being proactive early," one high-ranking executive said. "He would give the young kids a chance first."
Said another executive: "If you move early, it’s likely an overpay. And the Yankees won’t overpay."
The team’s ownership invested in the 2017 and 2018 teams over the winter, paying big for Edwin Encarnacion, and while the Indians haven’t played as well as expected, rival evaluators believe Cleveland will add the needed starting pitching before the deadline. It’s a team well-suited for October, with its strong bullpen and experience -- if it can get there.
John Lackey and Jake Arrieta are seemingly headed for free agency in the fall, which makes it more likely that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer will target starting pitching they can control beyond 2017. The Cubs have struggling young position players, such as Kyle Schwarber, but it’s more likely they will hope their players ride out their slumps than to spend assets for a solution.
They don’t have any significant problems, but rival officials think L.A. will look for opportunities to jump on value deals, whether it’s for a reliever, a starter or some other piece.
The lingering question that rival scouts have about Colorado is whether the team’s young starters will hold up over the long season. The Rockies have already bet heavily on winning in 2017, spending big to sign Ian Desmond and relievers Greg Holland and Mike Dunn, which is why other teams think the Rockies will bolster their rotation as needed.
The moves made with the coaching staff and roster were the clearest indication yet that St. Louis is intent on winning this year -- which makes sense given the Cubs’ problems. The Cardinals need a thumper for their lineup and rival execs expect they will land one of the sluggers that move, such as J.D. Martinez of the Tigers.
Purgatory
They are far behind the Nationals in the NL East and probably should commit to a turnover of assets with players such as Edinson Volquez, Marcell Ozuna, etc. But the pending sale of the team is a big X factor in any trade discussions, because the last thing Jeffrey Loria needs now is to give off any scent of another major rebuild.
The peers of K.C. GM Dayton Moore say he has indicated to other clubs that it’s merely possible that the Royals will be sellers before the deadline. But this is the last shot for prospective free agents Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and others to win together before they hit the market, and the Royals are far from buried. "I think Dayton is waiting for them to declare themselves," another GM said. "He’s not going to quit early."
They are in a position similar to where the Royals are -- not playing especially well, but close enough to the top of the AL Central to maintain some hope for a run at a wild-card spot.
The team’s staff ERA is over 6.00 for June, but incredibly, they’re in first place. They might eventually move some veterans for prospects and unload some financial obligations, but they won’t move the likes of Ervin Santana unless they fall back in the standings.
Holding pattern
Andrew McCutchen is hitting almost .400 since moving to the No. 6 spot in the lineup, Starling Marte will be back in 33 days and the team has good young pitching. But Pittsburgh may wind up playing the market as it did last year -- selling off valued players who may be nearing the end of their time with the Pirates while still trying to tinker enough to win. Last year, that meant trading Mark Melancon and Francisco Liriano in deals that helped the Pirates in the big picture. This year, it might mean moving McCutchen, if a suitable offer is presented, and listening when teams ask about Gerrit Cole.
The Arizona front office believed there was a chance for a bounce-back season from the D-backs this year, given the development of the starting pitching and defense, and the return of A.J. Pollock. But it remains to be seen whether the team would spend assets to prop up a run at a playoff spot this year -- especially if the Dodgers start to take control of the division.
They are expected to be a possible source of starting pitching on the trade market, whether it be Chris Archer, Alex Cobb or Jake Odorizzi. But the Rays have played better, they’ve got a ton of power and are a little dangerous.
Rival execs believe that Toronto will eventually trade away some veterans, but the Blue Jays have made up a lot of ground in the standings, and they have drawn well this year. There is room for growth if Aaron Sanchez conquers his blister issue and gets back in the Jays’ rotation.
It’s not really in their DNA to be sellers, and anyway, they don’t necessarily have a lot of valued pieces among those they would consider moving.
With the NL Central teams stacked together, Cincinnati is in the playoff conversation. But other teams think that, eventually, the Reds will move Zack Cozart.
Because no team has taken control of the division, Milwaukee -- a flawed but dangerous team -- is hanging around. It’s worth remembering that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has demonstrated in the past that he is extremely competitive. So while it may be somewhat premature for the rebuilding Brewers to spend assets to win now, Attanasio could push his front office to add the pitching it needs to seriously contend.
Other teams view Texas GM Jon Daniels as a realist in assessing his club before the deadline and he will not overvalue the wild-card opportunity if the Astros maintain their big lead. In other words, if the Rangers are buried in the standings with merely a hint of hope for the wild card, rival evaluators think Texas will weigh offers for Yu Darvish, Mike Napoli and other veterans. For now, the Rangers are open-minded.
They are far behind the Nationals, and maybe too far to justify a major midseason expenditure of prospect assets to augment the 2017 team. But they aren’t close to selling, either.
Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels
Both the Mariners and Angels seem unable to reach the Astros in the AL West, but they’re both hanging around .500 and are counting on the return of star players over the next four weeks. Seattle hasn’t been to the postseason since 2001, so a wild-card spot would be something worth pursuing.
Will sell inevitably
Atlanta will listen on prospective free agents such as Jaime Garcia and R.A. Dickey.
Ready to sell now
San Diego GM A.J. Preller already has called to remind other teams that he’s ready to talk about reliever Brad Hand and others right now.
Once Chicago swapped Chris Sale to the Red Sox, the White Sox opened for business and have been willing to talk about Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Jose Abreu for months.
Other teams expect Oakland to trade Sonny Gray to a contender this summer, and the A's are willing to talk about Yonder Alonso, who is having the best year of his career. One factor that might complicate talks: Rival executives perceive that new team president David Kaval will at least contribute to the discussion, at a time when he is working to get the team a new ballpark. In the past, other teams believed that Billy Beane operated with almost complete autonomy.
Nobody expected them to win this year, anyway.