I’ve always had better luck in Strat-O-Matic than in fantasy leagues, because there are always value considerations in fantasy that I will never understand as well as Eric Karabell or Tristan Cockcroft or Matthew Berry do. But I always like to peruse ESPN’s player rankings to spot opportunity and try to find the spots where a player might be ranked too high or too low based on what I've heard from evaluators.
I’m working with the advantage of the calendar: The rankings were released three weeks ago, and in the interim, Max Scherzer figured out a way to pitch without full use of the ring finger on his pitching hand, Adam Jones owned the WBC and hundreds of exhibition games were played. Aaron Sanchez developed a blister, the concern over Bryce Harper was eased by his spring showing and the Giants’ worry over Matt Cain has probably climbed.
So with the benefit of three more weeks of gathered intelligence, here are some of the respectful disagreements I have with the Top 300 rankings.
1. Greg Bird, 1B, New York Yankees -- No. 228 in head-to-head categories leagues: Way too low
He had 11 homers in 157 at-bats in 2015, before shoulder surgery cost him all of 2016, and the Yankees had only one question about him going into this spring: Is he healthy?
And yes, apparently he is: As of March 28, Bird has hit .447, with seven homers amid 15 extra-base hits, eight walks and 10 strikeouts.
He’s an acute fly ball hitter, with a 0.52 groundball rate in those 2015 at-bats, and hits from the left side of the plate in Yankee Stadium, where reaching the right-field porch seems as close as a free throw.
What’s not to like?
2. Edwin Diaz, RP, Seattle Mariners -- No. 94: Too low
Think about this: Diaz didn’t make his major league debut last year until June 6, and he still racked up more strikeouts than all but 15 relievers.
His slider is one of baseball’s most unhittable pitches. The only reliever who mustered a better strikeout rate while throwing at least 40 innings last year was Dellin Betances, and there are seven relievers ranked higher than Diaz. He’s young, he’s durable, his stuff is filthy and he’s the closer on what should be a good team.
He should be higher.
3. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox -- No. 26: Too high.
Bogaerts hit .329 before the All-Star break and was in contention for the league batting title, but his performance collapsed to .253 in the second half, with a .317 on-base percentage. We might be quick to dismiss that as a temporary blip if his manager had as well, but Boston’s John Farrell has dropped Bogaerts to sixth in the batting order.
Look, if you hit anywhere in the Red Sox lineup, you’re going to be in a prime position for run production, but hitting in the lower half of the Boston order is not going to be as advantageous as living in the high-rent district of Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia and (in 2016) David Ortiz. He’ll need to be better to justify a move back toward the top.
He’s a really good player, but maybe not good enough for the first couple of rounds.
4. Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets -- No. 67: Too low
Unless you’re part of the deGrom family and have him ranked as the No. 1 pitcher in your draft, he’s probably too low on your list. He has been throwing exceptionally this spring, with his velocity consistently reaching 96-97 mph, and scouts see a looseness and confidence in him, as if he has adopted the same mindset as Noah Syndergaard.
DeGrom has looked like someone who could win the Cy Young Award next fall.
5. Matt Moore, SP, San Francisco Giants -- No. 222: Too low
He seemed to get more comfortable with the Giants after going to San Francisco in a July trade, and Moore pitched well near season’s end.
Let’s look at Moore from 30,000 feet: At 27, he is entering what should be his second full season after his 2014 Tommy John surgery, and he’s a good pitcher who will work in a great pitchers’ park, in a division that mostly comprises pitchers’ parks. He’s on a better team, in a weaker division, matching against the starters at the back end of other rotations, and he is now teaming with arguably the game’s best catcher, Buster Posey.
Those are a lot of reasons to expect improvement.
6. Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto Blue Jays -- No. 112: Too low
The blister issue he had this week is a concern, for sure, but it’s worth repeating: When he was freed from the constraint of innings limits, he was perhaps the most dominant pitcher in the American League last year, leading in ERA, allowing only a .335 slugging percentage and overwhelming hitters with his fastball. His average velocity of 94.7 is behind only Danny Duffy (94.8) among returning AL starters from last year.
Now the innings limits are basically behind him, and if he can overcome the blister thing, he might fully break out.
7. Jean Segura, 2B/SS, Seattle Mariners -- No. 78: Too low
He had a big rebound year in 2016, racking up 203 hits, 41 doubles, 7 triples and 20 homers, while scoring 102 runs and stealing 33 bases, and it’s easy to understand the measured skepticism reflected in this fantasy ranking.
Yes, Segura was terrible in his last years in Milwaukee, and sure, as he joins the Mariners his home games shift from one of the best hitters parks to one of the worst. But Segura just turned 27 years old, he endured tragedy while with the Brewers and he has spoken with excitement about teaming up with Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz.
Can he repeat his 2016 numbers? I don’t know. But he’s a really good player who will be in a better lineup, and he should be ranked higher than this.
8. A.J. Pollock, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks -- No. 54: Too low
It was about a year ago that Pollock fractured his elbow when he slid into home plate. In that instant, it was as if a series of dominoes began to tumble: Pollock would miss almost the entire season, the demoralized Diamondbacks were terrible and, because of that, the front office was revamped.
After Pollock’s elbow surgery and long recovery, he came back to have a handful of at-bats and has built on that this winter. By all accounts, he is completely healthy. Let’s not forget what Pollock accomplished in 2015: a career-high 20 homers among 192 hits, 39 stolen bases, 53 walks and 111 runs.
The Diamondbacks have a new manager, a new vibe, a new and improved Shelby Miller and momentum that should help everybody. Even if Pollock is traded during the season, he seems poised for a big year.
9. DJ LeMahieu, 2B, Colorado Rockies -- No. 71: Too low
He wasn’t a blue-chip prospect, and the Cubs traded him away -- he and Bronson Arroyo are among the two best players Theo Epstein has dealt -- so it’s as if the industry continues to expect him to regress. Except he just seems to get better and better, and as a 28-year-old who is defending the NL batting title while playing his home games in Coors Field, it’s reasonable to expect he’ll continue to be one of the best offensive players at his position. He scored 104 runs and drove in 66 last season, and because LeMahieu is just one part of what should be a dynamic offense, he should put up big numbers again.
10. Marcell Ozuna, OF, Miami Marlins -- No. 109: Too high
He walked more and struck out less last season, but he plays his home games in a canyon, and year to year, his standing in the organization has suffered. Ozuna moved down in the lineup, he has been shifted out of center field and he still hasn’t had a year with an .800 OPS.
11. Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles -- No. 99: Too low
He was a really good pitcher last year, but his ascension in the second half of last season signaled he has turned the corner. Gausman will be a Cy Young contender, and so I’d reach for him in a draft.
12. Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets -- No. 179: Too low
He is cursed to be measured forever against expectations. Most of the evaluations of Harvey are taken through prisms: Is he as good as he once was? Is he as good as Noah Syndergaard? Where should he be placed in the Mets’ pecking order?
The fact is that Harvey was outstanding his first season after Tommy John surgery, posting a 2.71 ERA in 29 starts for the Mets in 2015 while striking out 188 and walking only 37 in 189⅓ innings, and last year, he was hurt.
This spring, he has gradually rebuilt his velocity, as club evaluators expected, as he recovers from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. He threw at 97 mph the last time out. If healthy, he should be pretty good, in a great pitcher’s park, often matched against other mid-rotation or back-of-the-rotation starters.
He’s a good bet.