A longtime evaluator once offered a perfect description of how the market for free agents and trades evolves over the course of the winter. Teams start to think seriously in September and October about forthcoming changes. In November, after the World Series, there is a flurry of activity, with free-agent signings and trade conversations spurred by the GM meetings -- and this year, the Astros are a perfect example of that, with their moves for Brian McCann, Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran.
The deals continue through early December, with the offseason feeding frenzy reaching a peak at the winter meetings, the evaluator explained, like a scientist talking about the habits of a feasting bear.
Then sometime between the winter meetings and Christmas, the evaluator said, it's as if layers of ice begin to cover the markets, freezing everything in place. Club officials begin to look ahead to spring training, and mostly or even wholly satisfied with what they've accomplished, they focus on the holidays, on vacations. They're close to being settled on the team they will take to spring training. Some executives begin paying back some of the time they've been away from home to family. They're spending more time away from the office, and they're not making as many calls as they were in November.
And if they do have holes, well, at this stage they might simply be waiting for prices on free agents and trade targets to fully bottom out.
If we have actually reached this hibernation part of the offseason, it's really bad news for the incredible number of veteran free agents still seeking jobs, particularly in the corner infield-outfield-DH market. What follows is just a partial list of long-established players from those spots still looking for jobs -- and in my years of covering baseball, I've never seen a situation in which so many players are still looking for jobs this deep into the winter.
This voluminous list of available free agents naturally depresses the asking prices in the trade market, because teams not interested in trading any players of value have plenty of alternatives to consider. Similarly, the potential options in trades hurt the free agents, because players like Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson and J.D. Martinez -- with salaries locked in for 2017 -- become measuring sticks for teams as they weigh free-agent options.
The veterans currently available for trade (and again, this isn't a comprehensive list, only partial):
There are some free agents on the list above who probably won't find jobs. Others will find landing spots for just a little above minimum. The average salary for MLB players has climbed, but the median salary recently dropped, from $1.65 million to $1.58 million, and some agents believe that this is because as teams get closer to spring training, they'd rather pay a minimum-wage youngster rather than give a little extra to sign a veteran.
Notables
• Ian Desmond brings his passion to the Rockies, as Patrick Saunders writes.
The tremendous volume of free agents listed above is part of the reason why the Rockies' decision to commit $70 million and surrender the 11th pick in next summer's draft to sign Desmond stunned so many in the industry. The 11th pick in the draft is the highest unprotected pick available and has tens of millions of dollars of value -- especially if the team making the selection hits big, and the Rockies have been extremely successful in the amateur draft in recent years.
To a lot of rival evaluators, Colorado's choice to expend those kinds of resources on a player who has never manned his assigned position, first base, is like paying sticker price the morning after Christmas, when the prices are destined to quickly drop.
• Pablo Sandoval looks better and better, as Rob Bradford writes.
AL East
• Nick Cafardo writes about why Chris Sale’s delivery works for him.
• The Red Sox have a promising three-year window, writes Jason Mastrodonato.
• Rogers, the company that owns the Blue Jays, seems prepared to fritter all the gains away, writes Scott Stinson.
AL West
• Jeff Banister has high expectations for Nomar Mazara in 2017.
NL East
• Mike Petriello looks at possible upgrades for center field for the Mets.
• The Phillies could add an outfielder, writes Todd Zolecki.
NL Central
• An oral history of the Cubs’ win in Game 7, from the staff of the Chicago Tribune.
Lastly
• Paul Sporer writes about 10 players he wouldn’t draft in fantasy.
And today will be better than yesterday.