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Key matchups to watch in World Series: Will Tribe run at will on Cubs' pitchers?

There's no shortage of intriguing storylines heading into the Fall Classic, including the Indians' aggressive baserunners against Jon Lester & Co. Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Here are matchups that will determine the outcome of what will be a historic World Series -- and we know this because the Elias Sports Bureau reports that this is the first World Series to be played between two franchises that have at least a 50-year current championship drought.

The Indians' baserunners versus Jon Lester's base-throwing yips and the Cubs' slow-moving starting pitchers

The Dodgers' game plan against Lester in Game 5 was sound; they did all they could to attack the most significant vulnerabilities of one of the best postseason pitchers of all time. Lester can nick both sides of the plate, he has a nasty cutter and he seems to be steeled emotionally when there are runners in scoring position -- but Lester has a mountainous mental block in throwing to bases.

However, because the Dodgers were such a conservative baserunning team during the season and because efficiency on the bases was never really a priority, there was nothing comfortable or instinctive about their attack on Lester. The Indians, on the other hand, have been incredibly aggressive all season through a collective effort to always look for a chance to take an extra base. Rajai Davis, a right-handed hitter who will play against Lester, led the AL in stolen bases with 43 -- or just two fewer than the Dodgers had all season. The Indians had easily the most steals in the AL with 134, and Cleveland manager Terry Francona has said this is the best baserunning team that he has been a part of.

Everyone from Davis to Francisco Lindor to Lonnie Chisenhall to Mike Napoli will look for opportunities to run against Lester, with a couple of days to prepare and hone a game plan. They also will attack Jake Arrieta and John Lackey, two tall pitchers who have consistently allowed a high number of stolen bases. The MLB leaders in stolen bases allowed in 2016:

Lester: 28 steals allowed (third in MLB)
Arrieta: 23, in 26 attempts (tied for fifth-most)
Lackey: 15 (tied for 24th-most)


Anthony Rizzo vs. Andrew Miller

Miller is having arguably the greatest postseason of any reliever ever; he has struck out 21 of the 41 batters he has faced, allowing five hits, two walks and no runs. His ability to command the two different sliders he throws has been extraordinary, and Raul Ibanez explained on the podcast the other day that Miller presents a difficult challenge for both right-handed and left-handed hitters, with his command of a sweeping slider that seems to come at the plate at a 45-degree angle. Francona will probably look to deploy Miller in sequences of hitters that will almost certainly include Rizzo, the Cubs' best left-handed hitter, and in recent days, Rizzo has broken out of his slump.

From ESPN Stats & Information: Rizzo struggled greatly in his first seven games of this postseason, going 2-for-26 with no extra-base hits or RBIs. His last three games of the NLCS were nothing short of dominant, though: 7-for-14, with four extra-base hits (including a solo homer in Game 6) and five RBIs.

Rizzo has become more effective against left-handed pitchers by standing on top of home plate and daring them to pitch inside, to be better positioned to attack any breaking stuff on the outer half of the plate, so his chess match against Miller will be fascinating. In his career against Miller, Rizzo is 1-for-4 with two strikeouts.


Trevor Bauer vs. his finger and adrenaline, and maybe not in that order

More than a week will have passed since Bauer's finger became a bloody mess on the mound in Toronto, so presumably he'll be healed and ready to go; he has said he will be ready to pitch in every game of the World Series. The Indians will probably be satisfied if he works in only one or two, especially if Bauer can corral all the competitiveness that can sometimes overflow into his effort to command his stuff. Part of the reason the Indians' staff and teammates accepted the circumstances of Bauer's injury was that through all of the quirkiness of his personality, they know he really wants to do well -- and Bauer will need to contain that against the Cubs, especially in the early innings.


The Cubs' relievers against the Indians' lineup balance

The Cubs constructed a small army of left-handed relievers in the last 10 weeks of the regular season partly because of the possible matchups they forecasted against the Nationals and Dodgers, including Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper and all those left-handed hitters the Dodgers have. But as Red Sox manager John Farrell noted during the Red Sox-Indians AL Division Series, the Indians make it difficult to find reliever-on-hitter matchups because they have a lot of balance in their lineup, which has a number of switch-hitters: Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Coco Crisp. The Indians have left-handed sock in Jason Kipnis and the underrated Lonnie Chisenhall, right-handed power in Mike Napoli, and platoons in center and left field. During the 2016 regular season, the Indians led the majors in platoon matchups -- which is to say they had the highest percentage of right-handed hitters facing left-handed pitchers, and left-handed hitters facing right-handed pitchers.

It is for this reason that Carl Edwards Jr. could play an enormous role in this series. He's a right-handed pitcher who can get left-handed hitters out; during the regular season, lefties were just 7-for-48 with 17 strikeouts against him.


Indians baserunners vs. the Cubs' defense

The Indians were the best in the AL at baserunning efficiency, by far, and that ability was pivotal in big moments of the first two rounds of the postseason, whether it was Roberto Perez tagging up and taking second base on a deep fly to left field against the Red Sox or Mike Napoli grabbing an extra base on a pitch in the dirt; both players subsequently scored on hits. This habit is ingrained in the Indians, but they now face a team that is historically great on defense, armed with fielders confident and aggressive in how they throw, from Rizzo at first to Javier Baez and Addison Russell in the middle infield to David Ross and Willson Contreras behind the plate to right fielder Jason Heyward.


Kyle Schwarber vs. the rust

In the midst of the Cubs' preparation for Game 6 Saturday, they activated Schwarber from the 60-day disabled list and assigned him to play in the Arizona Fall League, with the hope of preparing him for a role in the World Series. It's a remarkable sequence of events, given that just 199 days have passed since he suffered what was believed to be a season-ending knee injury on April 7. It also has been 369 days since his last hit in an actual major league game, a homer off Jacob deGrom in the National League Championship Series last October.

But the Cubs' staff has extraordinary faith in Schwarber's ability to hit, which is why it drafted him far higher than he was projected to be selected, and why it pre-emptively rejected any notion he would be considered in any trade discussions for any player -- and in July, that meant Andrew Miller.

If Schwarber passes all the final tests the Cubs place before him in the next 48 hours -- a big if -- the left-handed masher could start at DH against Cleveland's three right-handers, and interestingly, manager Joe Maddon could face the decision of whether to allow Schwarber to hit against Miller or pinch-hit for him.

Schwarber played Saturday. From Jack Thompson's piece:

Batting second and serving as the designated hitter for the Mesa Solar Sox, Schwarber grounded out twice, walked on a full count and then lined out to the gap in right-center field.

"It was overall a really great day for me," Schwarber said after the game at Sloan Park. "The first two [at-bats], I chased a little bit. Today was about the at-bats. Running was not a factor."

Schwarber added that his knee felt fine.


Jason Heyward vs. his slump

In Game 5 of the NLCS, the lefty-hitting Heyward looked confused and in his own head about his mechanics, and truth be told, he probably will have no chance of being truly fixed without some extensive time off, taking the time to emotionally and mechanically deconstruct, then reconstruct. In this postseason, he's 2-for-28, with one walk and eight strikeouts. Because of this, Maddon opted to start Albert Almora Jr., a right-handed hitter, in right field Saturday with left-hander Clayton Kershaw starting against the Cubs.

So now Maddon will have difficult choices in the World Series: Should he start Heyward against Cleveland's mostly right-handed rotation, accepting the lack of offense because of Heyward's continued defensive excellence, or should he bench him altogether?

If Schwarber is available to DH and give the Cubs more left-handed thump, this would make it easier for Maddon to start Heyward and align him at the bottom of the lineup. Because right now, anything Heyward gives them at the plate is probably a bonus.


Roberto Perez vs. the umpires

One evaluator focused on the Indians' series against the Blue Jays marveled at Perez's framing work in the Toronto series. "On every borderline pitch, he got them a strike," the evaluator said with admiration. "Every. Single. One."

Cleveland's staff spoke with deep admiration for Perez's discipline in sticking to the team's game plan against the Blue Jays, which was to attack the Toronto hitters with off-speed stuff. The Cubs will present a much greater challenge, with a deeper lineup that is much more varied in strengths and weaknesses.


Theo Epstein vs. Terry Francona

No direct head-to-head matchup is in play here beyond the preparation and execution of game plans that Francona and Epstein are involved in. But underneath the polished and sincere niceties that both will offer about the other, they are both really competitive and are fully aware of that trait in the other, given their history together in Boston.

We should think of them the way you might think of two brothers playing pickup basketball for a lifetime of bragging rights.

What's at stake for the two of them is legacy: Francona and/or Epstein can start to write a Hall of Fame speech after this is over, because one of them will have conquered two historic World Series droughts for two of MLB's original franchises. It's something they'll be able to talk about years from now on the back porch at the Otesaga Hotel in Cooperstown, New York.


Cubs' destiny vs. Indians' destiny

The Cubs could conquer 108 years of heartache for a fan base that deserves better. The Indians could confirm, once and for all, that Cleveland is America's city of champions, for a Rust Belt city that deserves better.

What the fan base of the losing team will experience is something we don't even want to think about.

The Cubs seem genuine in their desire to win for the city of Chicago, writes John Harper.