When Ben Zobrist was a free agent earlier this offseason, the two teams with the best chance of signing him used their own version of the same sales pitch. The Cubs and Mets worked to convince Zobrist that their respective futures offered a chance for him to be part of something great: future postseason appearances, and possibly a shared immortality in one of the world's biggest markets.
The Cubs won out, but there might be a few moments when Zobrist regrets his choice -- such as when he's standing in the batter's box trying to figure out a way to reach base against the Mets' incredible starting pitching.
In Part I of our annual team unit rankings, we present the top 10 rotations in baseball, based on input from evaluators around the game.
Rotation candidates: Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon, Zack Wheeler
Of the National League's top five hardest-throwing starters with at least 140 big league innings in 2015, the Mets have three of them: Syndergaard, whose fastball averaged 97.1 mph; Harvey at 95.9 mph; and deGrom at 95 mph. No. 4 starter Steven Matz, who has less time in the majors and is the least developed of the New York starters, generally checks in at 94-96 mph as well.
There are a ton of relievers who throw this hard these days, but few starting pitchers can maintain high-end velocity three times through a lineup, and the Mets are lined up to have four guys who can do that, with Zack Wheeler, MLB's fifth-hardest throwing starter in 2014, expected back sometime in 2016 after he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
But as the Mets' starters demonstrated on their journey to the World Series last fall, their excellence is rooted not only in how hard they throw, but in the quality of their secondary stuff and their ability to command those pitches. DeGrom, Syndergaard and Harvey ranked 9th, 10th and 12th, respectively, in the majors in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
They're all young, could be together for at least three more seasons and seemingly have a chance to be remembered as one of the best rotations of this generation. The Mets have the best rotation in baseball now, and there really isn't a close second.
Rotation candidates: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, Cody Anderson, Josh Tomlin
One rival evaluator attached the Indians to the Mets in assessing what's ahead of them in the next few years. "No matter what else happens, that starting pitching gives them a chance to win," he said. "They might have holes in their lineup, but the pitching is their equalizer."
Last season, Indians starters led the majors in strikeouts, averaging almost one per inning (969 in 979 1/3), and they held opponents to a .235 batting average, the lowest in the AL. Kluber had a strange, luckless year in 2015 after winning the Cy Young Award in 2014, and the Indians can reasonably expect that the 29-year-old will have a better season in 2016.
The difference between very good and great for the Indians' rotation might be Bauer, who can drive teammates crazy with his inconsistency; he had 10 starts in which he allowed five or more earned runs, and 12 in which he allowed zero or one earned run. If Bauer takes another step forward -- and the rotation stays relatively healthy -- the Indians' rotation could propel Cleveland to a postseason berth.
Rotation candidates: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Jaime Garcia, Mike Leake, Carlos Martinez.
This might be the most difficult rotation to assess because of all of the change. John Lackey, an anchor who fired 218 innings in 2015, moved on to the Cubs in a two-year deal, and Lance Lynn will miss next season after having Tommy John surgery. But Wainwright is coming back after missing most of last season, Wacha was an All-Star last year and Garcia surprised the Cardinals with a strong 2015.
The X factor will be Leake, who got a five-year, $80 million deal with full no-trade protection from the Cardinals. If you talk to 10 different evaluators about Leake, you'll get a wide range of opinion, with some believing that he's a solid plow horse; some mentioning his transcendent athleticism; some feeling he's more of a No. 4/5 starter; and some concluding that his margin for error in terms of stuff is so small that he could face a major regression.
4. Chicago Cubs
Rotation candidates: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Hammel
Arrieta was baseball's best pitcher for the last three months of the 2015 regular season, before he seemed to finally tire in the postseason. While Lester did not conquer his throwing issues to bases, he and catcher David Ross seemed to figure out a way to mitigate the effect of that problem. And before you assign regression to the 37-year-old Lackey, keep in mind that he has had freakish consistency with his average fastball velocity. From FanGraphs:
Lackey average fastball velocity
2007: 91.3 mph
2008: 91.1
2009: 91.6
2010: 91.1
2011: 91.5
2012: Missed the season after Tommy John surgery
2013: 91.6
2014: 91.7
2015: 91.6
The 26-year-old Hendricks (3.95 ERA in 180 innings) and Hammel (3.74 ERA in 170 2/3 innings) round out a strong rotation.
Rotation candidates: Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Chris Heston, Tyler Beede
Yes, there are questions about how the back end of this group will hold up; Cain has had many injury issues in recent years and may never be the same, Peavy is now 34 and has thrown 2,258 1/3 big league innings and some teams shied away from Cueto due to his elbow history.
But Bumgarner is one of baseball's best pitchers, the Giants believe Samardzija will bounce back from his rocky 2015 and if Cueto holds up, the front of this rotation could be dynamic.
And the Giants have safety nets in place. Heston had a lot of success early last year, and Beede, a first-round pick in both the 2011 and 2014 drafts, climbed to Double-A last season, with mixed results. The Giants have more rotation depth than they've had in years.
Rotation candidates: Clayton Kershaw, Scott Kazmir, Brett Anderson, Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Alex Wood, Brandon McCarthy, Mike Bolsinger
No one should be surprised if the Dodgers finish 2016 with the lowest starting pitcher ERA. Although the departure of Zack Greinke is an enormous loss -- and may be the difference in whether L.A. reaches the postseason -- Kershaw is still widely regarded as the best pitcher in the majors, and Kazmir and Anderson are both capable of strong outings. Lost in the concern over Kazmir's late-season struggles in 2015 is the excellence of his first half, when he posted a 2.49 ERA for Oakland, and Kazmir and Anderson both have a chance to refine their resumes for free agency next fall (Kazmir signed a three-year deal but has an opt-out after the 2016 season, while Anderson accepted the team's qualifying offer). The Dodgers really have no idea what to expect from Ryu, or from McCarthy; the right-hander is making his way back from elbow surgery. L.A. is more bullish than other teams on Maeda, who signed an unusual eight-year deal that guarantees him only $25 million because of concerns about his arm. Wood was effective for the Dodgers after a midseason deal, but rival evaluators have noted his diminished velocity and believe he may be most effective as a reliever.
The Dodgers also have prospects Jose De Leon and Julio Urias moving through the minors quickly. So while it's hard to know exactly how many innings Ryu will generate, or McCarthy or Maeda, the Dodgers have far more starting pitching depth than they did a year ago.
Rotation candidates: Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, Jon Niese, Ryan Vogelsong
Cole continues to improve, and Liriano has now had three strong seasons in Pittsburgh. Niese is an X factor: He generates a lot of ground balls and could benefit from the Pirates' excellence in defensive positioning.
But what might really distinguish the Pirates' rotation is the group of up-and-coming starters in the minors, including Tyler Glasnow, who is considered the Pirates' No. 1 prospect after a good showing in Triple-A late last summer.
Rotation candidates: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, Joe Ross
The Nationals' starters weren't as good as expected last year, but they still ranked among the MLB leaders in ERA and strikeouts. And with Scherzer leading the group, they'll likely finish in the top 10 in both of those categories again in 2016.
The X factor is Strasburg, who is entering the final season before he reaches free agency. After missing a month in the middle of 2015, he came back and was dominant, allowing only 14 earned runs in his final 11 starts, and he racked up 92 strikeouts in his last 66 1/3 innings, allowing only 42 hits.
If Strasburg continues on that sort of trajectory in 2016, he could make Washington's rotation one of the very best -- and make himself a whole lot of money.
Rotation candidates: Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, Rubby De La Rosa, Robbie Ray, Chase Anderson
Greinke completely alters the look of Arizona's rotation, coming off a year in which he led the majors in ERA, and while there's some disagreement among rival evaluators about how good Miller is exactly, there's no doubt he improves this group. Corbin pitched well in his first half-season after coming back from Tommy John surgery, posting a 3.60 ERA in 16 starts, and Ray showed flashes of excellence.
In the Miller trade, the Diamondbacks traded the pitcher that some teams considered to be Arizona's best prospect, Aaron Blair. But the Diamondbacks still have Braden Shipley and Archie Bradley as depth, which is better than most teams have.
10. Tampa Bay Rays
Rotation candidates: Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Erasmo Ramirez
Even through a ton of injuries behind Archer, their ace, the Rays still managed to lead the AL in starters' ERA, at 3.63, and there is some expectation that in 2016, Tampa Bay's rotation will get more out of Cobb, who made 27 starts in 2014, and Odorizzi, who slumped in the second half, posting a 4.34 ERA after having a 2.30 ERA in the first half.
Archer is a tremendous anchor, coming off a year in which he whiffed 252 hitters in 212 innings.
Just missed: Boston Red Sox
Rotation candidates: David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, Steven Wright, Henry Owens
Some evaluators believe that the Red Sox deserve a spot in the top 10 now that they have Price in the No. 1 spot, in front of the talented Rodriguez and in front of Porcello and Kelly, who both improved in the second half last season. Buchholz tends to range from excellent to injured.
You wonder if Price and Rodriguez will feed off each other as left-handers with similar stuff, with Rodriguez gleaning all of the information that Price has accumulated.
Next best: The Houston Astros, anchored by Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel; the Seattle Mariners; the Texas Rangers, depending on how much they get out of Yu Darvish, who had Tommy John surgery last spring.
Notables
• The Cardinals are closing in on a deal for a Korean reliever, writes Derrick Goold.
• Roch Kubatko writes about the question of whether the Orioles should hang on to the 14th pick in the draft, or sacrifice it in signing a premium free agent. Plus, a Chris Davis update.
• Twenty-five years ago today, the Orioles traded for Glenn Davis.
• Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins says he's not looking to trade starting pitcher R.A. Dickey.
• Arbitration figures will be exchanged this week for Jake Arrieta and others.
AL East
• A quick start will be important for the Red Sox this season, writes Michael Silverman.
• There's still time for the Red Sox to fine-tune their roster before spring training.
• Chad Jennings takes a look at the Yankees' 40-man roster.
AL West
• A look at a top Rangers prospect.
NL East
• Mets GM Sandy Alderson's trolling of Mets fans isn't winning him any points.
NL West
• If the Rockies sign Gerardo Parra, this could mean that outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is gone, writes Patrick Saunders.
Lastly
• Rangers outfielder Justin Ruggiano has been helping out tornado victims.
• Tal Smith was a pioneer in developing a database, writes David Laurila.
• Jeff Francis, recently retired, was honored.
• Sammy Sosa went skiing in Aspen.
• David Bowie: Legend.
• As a lifelong fan of the Minnesota Vikings, their missed field goal in the final moments Sunday ranks somewhere around Brett Favre's interception in the 2010 playoffs and Gary Anderson's missed field goal in 1998. But Vikings kicker Blair Walsh is a great pro, and you cannot be more professionally honorable than he was Sunday. Also, if you look at the replay of the snap and hold, the ball actually slides left after it was set down on its point.
And today will be better than yesterday.