Justin Upton has eight years and 60 days in the big leagues, and for the first time in his baseball life, the three-time All-Star has the opportunity to sign anywhere he wants, as a free agent.
That's the theory anyway -- the reality appears to be very different. Upton's agent, Larry Reynolds, typically gets his clients off the board quickly each winter. But as 2015 prepares to turn into 2016, Upton and many other accomplished veterans are still unsigned, seemingly constricted in a market in which the very best pitchers and Jason Heyward were paid very well and now the flow of dollars has slowed.
We are deep enough into the offseason that players and their agents are presumably reviewing and reassessing strategy, and if they believe their chances for the whopper long-term deal they envisioned three months ago have dwindled or disappeared, the time for target alteration is nearing.
For some free agents -- and Upton might fall into this group, along with Scott Kazmir, Ian Desmond and others -- the benefits of taking a one-year deal at a preferred destination should be considered. For others, such as Yovani Gallardo and Ian Kennedy, perhaps waiting to sign until after the start of the 2016 season could be better.
The high volume of high-quality free-agent options has almost certainly worked against most of the players still unsigned. David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and Heyward are off the board, and they took about a billion dollars with them. Clubs like the Giants, Cubs and Red Sox have filled their primary needs, and the Yankees, Phillies and Angels are among the large-market teams that probably won't spend.
If some of those players in the current group of unsigned free agents can get back into the mix next fall, the market conditions could be much better, because the volume of high-end free agents will be greatly reduced. The best pitchers in next fall's market, it appears, will be Stephen Strasburg and Brett Anderson. And the most accomplished outfielders set to hit the market in the fall of 2016 are: Jose Bautista, who will be 36 next fall; Jay Bruce, who has posted consecutive sub-.300 OBP seasons; and Matt Holliday, who turns 36 in a few weeks.
Right now, Upton is probably suffering from the fact that there are so many unsigned free-agent outfielders, including Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Gerardo Parra, Dexter Fowler and Denard Span, as well as others available in trade, like the Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez. Teams that could use an outfielder now, like the Giants, have the luxury of waiting for one of these options to fall to their price range.
Upton's situation is further complicated by the fact that he is tied to draft-pick compensation, and some teams simply won't consider him on a long-term deal; they could just as easily focus on one of the others not tied to a draft pick, such as Parra, Cespedes or Span.
Upton's greatest advantage now is that he's still just 28 years old. If he works out a one-year deal, picks a preferred destination in a nice hitter's park for the 2016 season and has a strong year, he could be the best available position player next fall. He could be in a much better position to cash in on his free agency, as Nelson Cruz did in 2014, when he signed with Baltimore for one year and $8 million and led the American League in homers, leading to a four-year, $57 million contract with Seattle.
Kazmir similarly could benefit from taking a one-year deal, thus deferring his long-term choice until next fall. There could be modest three-year deals available to him now, but if Kazmir, who is not subject to draft-pick compensation now because he was traded midseason, signs a one-year deal, bets on himself and has a strong 2016, he could be among the two or three most-coveted free-agent pitchers next year. At the very least, by taking a one-year deal now, he could get a higher salary for next season.
Desmond could think about taking a one-year deal, because of all the free agents, he probably had the worst launch season of all in 2015. The 30-year-old Desmond started terribly and finished with a .233 average and a .290 on-base percentage, and he committed 27 errors. The teams have wondered if the athletic Desmond might be open to transitioning to more of a super-utility role, a Ben Zobrist type, learning to play the outfield and other spots in the infield at a time when versatility is greatly valued.
Desmond could prepare along those lines and find himself a one-year landing spot for a very modest salary, because he turned down a qualifying offer and is tied to draft-pick compensation. Any team that signed him would want to offset the sacrifice of a draft pick (this is why Cruz had to settle for the $8 million salary). Maybe he would make sense for the White Sox, whose first-round pick is protected; who play in a great park for right-handed hitters (like Desmond); and who could use a veteran shortstop as they wait for the arrival of top shortstop prospect Tim Anderson.
Two years ago, Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew waited until after Opening Day of the 2014 season to sign, in order to rid themselves of the ties to draft-pick compensation. For both, this turned out to be a disaster; each seemingly rushed back to the big leagues after signing with the Twins and Red Sox, respectively; they performed terribly and were traded. If there was a lesson to be learned, it could be that position players need weeks of preparation -- the equivalent of spring training -- in order to catch up with their peers.
For pitchers tied to draft-pick compensation, the strategy of waiting until after the start of spring training and perhaps after Opening Day to sign could be more workable, because their indoctrination into competition is more regimented, and in line with the typical injury rehabilitation process. Perhaps this would benefit Kennedy and Gallardo in particular, because by late March or early April, needs for them will inevitably develop as a contending team or two loses a starting pitcher to injury. If Kennedy and Gallardo wait until after Opening Day, their market value won't be dragged down by the draft-pick compensation rule, and they'd be in a better position to get multiyear deals and be back on the mound by sometime in mid- to late May.
Free agency is supposed to be a time when an established player is rewarded for time served, for accomplishments. But some players unsigned now could be infected with some frustration because of how market forces have worked against them.
As for Cespedes, the perception remains that the Tigers might chase him.
Thoughts on the Al Jazeera report
Major League Baseball will open an investigation based on the information in the report by Al Jazeera. Within the report, the Chicago Cubs' Taylor Teagarden appears on camera and speaks about performance-enhancing drugs.
Ryan Howard's attorneys may sue Al Jazeera. The Nationals issued a statement of support for Ryan Zimmerman.
We'll see where this all leads in the months ahead, and whether there will be depositions under oath.
Two things came to mind:
1. Nothing could have been stranger than the circumstances of Biogenesis, which fueled Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Braun and others and was broken up over a disagreement of about $20,000. So regardless of how odd some of the details in the Al Jazeera report may seem, or how vehement the denials are, Major League Baseball must chase this as far as it can, wherever it leads, even if it leads nowhere.
2. As written here several times, there has been a growing suspicion among players and executives that the number of players using PEDs has risen, again. And after what happened for a period of 20 years during what is now known as the steroid era, nothing should surprise anyone. The possible incentives to cheat still far outweigh the penalties, as we've seen in the cases of players like Bartolo Colon, Melky Cabrera and Nelson Cruz. This will continue to be the case until the Major League Baseball Players Association is open to the idea of voiding contracts for players busted for PEDs.
During the 1994-95 strike and in its aftermath, the players' union harshly treated replacement players -- scabs, the union members called them at the time -- because of the perceived threat those men were to what the MLBPA was trying to accomplish. For years, the replacement players were not allowed in union meetings, and some other players wouldn't speak to them.
Anyone who cheats and takes PEDs now is a much more direct threat to his union brethren because he is breaking the rules designed to keep a level playing field, rules designed and fostered by the union members who don't want to be put in a position in which they must make the choice about whether to use drugs in order to keep up. Anyone who gets caught taking PEDs now might as well be stealing money from the other members of the union, because without that competitive advantage, those dollars are probably going to somebody else.
It's up to the union members to take the next step if they want to significantly reduce the incentive to cheat.
AL East
• Bill James' projections help the Red Sox's preparation for 2016.
NL Central
• A few Rockies outfielders are enticing to the Cardinals. I heard a working theory this winter that the most notable reason for the Rockies' stark home/road splits -- the most challenging thing for Colorado hitters in making the adjustment from home to road games -- is that they see a completely different caliber of breaking ball when they play in cities outside of Denver, because of the effects of elevation. This would be like a team seeing nothing but 80 mph fastballs in home games, and then the typical 90-92 mph on the road; the transition would be difficult.
Lastly
• Dave Henderson, who passed away at age 57, will always be remembered for being a good ballplayer, for his big smile and, of course, for this.
Leigh Montville wrote this about Henderson's homer on the day it happened.
He was an A's fan favorite, writes Susan Slusser. He should be remembered for his fun-loving nature, writes Larry Stone.
• Clyde Wright learned from what has happened to Rod Carew, writes Marcia Smith.
• There is sad news about Bobby Dews, a longtime member of the Atlanta organization. He loved the idea of being a writer.
And today will be better than yesterday.