Arizona has the first baseman considered to be the best at his position and a center fielder who ranks among the best. The Diamondbacks' left fielder was part of the top 10 the other day, and today they have another top-10 player among right fielders. Don’t forget that they had the first pick in the draft last summer and selected Dansby Swanson, who will start the 2016 season either in the highest level of Class A or in Class AA and will be a candidate to reach the big leagues next year.
To all of this high-end talent in their lineup, they have now added Zack Greinke, one of the best pitchers in baseball, which is why some players in the division texting and emailing after the Greinke news broke Friday now regard the NL West as wide-open, with Arizona right in the mix with the Dodgers and Giants. More on that in a bit. First: ranking the top 10 right fielders, based on the input of evaluators and players around the majors.
1. Bryce Harper He had an adjusted OPS+ of 195 during the 2015 season, which puts him in the company of Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron and Albert Belle, among others. And he did all that despite the fact that no other Washington hitter reached 20 homers last season -- or 80 runs scored or 75 RBIs or even 50 walks. His ability to square up pitches when he’s ahead in the count is staggering, considering his age. According to Baseball-Reference.com, in those situations when Harper resolved at-bats with zero strikes -- when he could look to attack pitches -- he posted a .484 batting average, with a slugging percentage of .960. He was 60-for-124 with 14 doubles and 15 homers. To put that into context, the OPS in zero-strike at-bats for some of the games best hitters: Harper 1.544 Chris Davis 1.470 Nelson Cruz 1.421 Paul Goldschmidt 1.385 Joey Votto 1.362 Mike Trout 1.340 Jose Bautista 1.233 Nolan Arenado 1.134 Josh Donaldson 1.131 Miguel Cabrera 1.074
2. Giancarlo Stanton Injury limited him to 74 games, and he did big damage in those, with 27 homers and 67 RBIs. Stanton said he is excited by the Marlins’ decision to hire Barry Bonds as their new hitting coach, and if Miami is more fortunate than it was in 2015, it should have Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich and Stanton playing together a lot more in 2016.
3. Jose Bautista He just racked up his third season of at least 40 home runs and needs only 14 more homers to reach 300 in his career. Toronto's Bautista had the fifth-best OBP in the American League last season, and when he reaches free agency next fall at age 35, his ability to work counts and take walks -- on top of all that power -- will help him get another multiyear deal.
4. Jason Heyward Working with the Cardinals’ staff and cage rats Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday, Heyward got better as the 2015 season progressed and finished with an OPS of almost .800. He is generally regarded as the best defensive right fielder in the sport, and with Heyward just 26 years old, there’s no reason to expect that to change for another two or three more years.
5. George Springer He’s actually just a month younger than Heyward but with much less experience at the major league level. In his first 180 games in the big leagues, the Astros' Springer has done a lot of damage, with 36 homers and 89 walks (and 223 strikeouts, it should be noted). Springer is still learning, and yet he’s already among the best at his position.
6. Shin-Soo Choo His 2015 season was incredibly weird because patient and experienced hitters like Choo don’t usually collapse into deep slumps. But at the end of April, Choo was hitting .096 (5-for-52) with the Rangers, which makes his final numbers somewhat remarkable. He closed the season with a .276 average and a .375 on-base percentage, the respect of evaluators intact. “He’s still a really good offensive player,” one longtime scout said. “He still controls his at-bats.” Next season will be Year 3 of his seven-year, $130 million contract.
7. Ender Inciarte He is yet another reason the Diamondbacks finished second in the NL in runs scored in 2015 and why they are serious candidates to threaten the Dodgers next year. The 25-year-old Inciarte hit .303 last season, with a .338 on-base percentage and improved in the second half, when he had an .802 OPS. The only outfielder credited with more defensive runs saved last season than Inciarte (who had 29) was Kevin Kiermaier. Only three outfielders scored better in UZR/150 than Inciarte: Kiermaier, Heyward and Billy Hamilton.
8. Carlos Gonzalez So let’s dispense with the usual issue with Colorado hitters: At home last season, he had a .972 OPS, and on the road, .758. Twenty-four of his 40 homers were at Coors Field; on the road, he had 16 homers and 74 strikeouts in 280 at-bats, with 21 walks, and among all outfielders, he was tied for 31st in fWAR, at 2.4, with Brock Holt. But he’s relatively healthy, anyway, coming off a season in which he played in 153 games, the most in his career; in 2013 and 2014, he played a total of 180 games.
9. J.D. Martinez He followed up on his 2014 breakthrough with another strong season, in which the Tigers’ right fielder posted an adjusted OPS+ of 140, including 73 extra-base hits, 93 runs and 102 RBIs.
10. Gregory Polanco The 24-year-old will be in the top 10 for years to come, especially because Polanco seemed to turn a corner in the middle of the 2015 season, working his way through a slump. At about the time he finished June with an OPS of .540 for the month, he was assured by Pirates manager Clint Hurdle that he would not be returned to the minors, and coincidence or not, he took off from there, his OPS climbing to .787 in July, .880 in August. He finished his first full season with 152 hits, 50 extra-base hits, 55 walks, 27 steals and 83 runs.
Toughest guys to leave off:
Curtis Granderson. He was thrilled when the Mets hired Kevin Long to be their hitting coach, and the payoff was immediate, with his OPS climbing 107 points over 2014, and his hits, walks and homers all climbing. Because of Daniel Murphy’s postseason streak of homers, Granderson’s tremendous postseason showing will be largely forgotten, but it shouldn’t be. He reached base 24 times in 14 games and scored 10 runs, swiping four bases in the playoffs after stealing only 11 during the regular season. Granderson has continued to be a solid middle-of-the-pack defender and demonstrated in October that he still has a good arm.
Hunter Pence. His value to the Giants was underscored every time he was out of the lineup last season because the team would struggle. In the 52 games he played in 2015, he had an .806 OPS, scored 30 runs and drove in 40.
Kole Calhoun. The Angels had to move him around their batting order to fill other needs, so as he shifted from hitting in front of Mike Trout, some of his numbers dipped. If the Angels add another thumper -- and they’re in conversations with some of the best offensive players in the free-agent market -- Calhoun could remain at the top of the lineup. He had 26 homers last season.
The Cardinals’ guys -- Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty. It’s hard to know exactly where to place Grichuk in the whole outfield ranking conversation because he plays all over (37 games in center last season, 49 in left, 13 in right field) and it’s not clear, at this moment, how St. Louis will use him in 2016, given the uncertainty about Heyward. But the 24-year-old Grichuk performed well last season, batting .276 with 17 homers. Piscotty batted .305 in 63 games for St. Louis in ’15.
Greinke leaves Dodgers for Diamondbacks
• The Yankees are effectively sitting out free agency winter because they owe a lot of money to a lot of older players -- Mark Teixeira has another year left, and so does Carlos Beltran; CC Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez each have two years remaining on their respective deals. The Yankees have other sizable contracts with Masahiro Tanaka, Brian McCann, Andrew Miller and Brett Gardner. They need to ride out some contracts as they presumably prepare for the monster winter of 2018-2019, when Harper, Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez and others will all be free agents.
But what is odd about the Dodgers’ parting with Greinke is that, besides their monster deal with Clayton Kershaw, they don’t owe a lot of money to other players beyond 2017. In 2018, they’re on the hook for about $42 million, to Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig and Brandon McCarthy, and in 2017, they’re set to be in the last season of deals with Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and Alex Guerrero. The Dodgers, however, would not give Greinke a sixth year in their offer, sticking to a reported $155 million over five years, and when the details of the Arizona deferrals are completed, it could turn out to be that they were outbid by about $35 million to $40 million by a division rival.
The Dodgers’ front office has signaled for weeks that it wanted to go young, but now the Dodgers have to live out that vision, which will be difficult. George Steinbrenner’s Yankees learned three decades ago that a team cannot be the financial bully in the room, with fans expecting an annual shot at championship, and step away from the table for a year or two at a time. Any rebuilding effort must be made on the fly, in concert with an effort to win, and that is the challenge.
And while you can debate the merits of a giving a 32-year-old pitcher a sixth year on top of a five-year offer and walking away from a deal over the difference of $30 million, there is no debating this: Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw propped up the Dodgers last year. When either of those pitchers started, L.A. was 43-22, and when anybody else started, they were 49-48. The Dodgers might sign a cheaper alternative to Greinke, someone like Johnny Cueto or Scott Kazmir, but now the pressure on Kershaw will be even greater, and the same will be true for first-year manager and front man Dave Roberts, whose coaching staff was already in place when he was hired.
They will be the first to feel the brunt of the fans’ frustration if the Dodgers drift backward in the standings and fall behind the Diamondbacks and Giants. But that unhappiness would trickle upward, quickly, and the politics of failure would manifest, with a course change inevitable, despite the best-laid plans of December 2015. Former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington knows all about that.
A storied franchise sold for $2 billion just lost one of the three best pitchers in baseball over the sake of $30 million or so five years from now. Being outbid by the Diamondbacks was devastating for the Dodgers and their fans, writes Bill Shaikin. The pressure on the front office grows, writes Steve Dilbeck. This proves again the Dodgers are not beholden to their best players, writes Pedro Moura. The Dodgers are stockpiling a lot of draft picks: They’ll get one for Greinke and would get another for Howie Kendrick. The Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world, writes Nick Piecoro. This could be a game-changer, writes Dan Bickley. Arizona should get good value from Greinke, writes Keith Law.
Because Goldschmidt is signed to a team-friendly long-term deal, he is one of the sport’s most affordable superstars, and that presumably is how Arizona could carve out some space with its payroll. Under his current deal, he is under the D-backs’ control through 2019, including a ’19 team option, and is guaranteed about $28 million. (He would get an additional $12.5 million through that team option, if exercised). But there was a sense in the industry Friday night that the Greinke contract could eventually become a major burden on the Diamondbacks' payroll, and Arizona will inevitably be forced into some draconian decisions because of this deal, which is exactly what happened in the years after the D-backs’ 2001 championship.
The team had to cope with the fallout from a credit-card mentality and pay off their debt, and the Diamondbacks really struggled. It is undebatable, however, that the 2016 Diamondbacks could be greatly improved by this deal. There are a lot of elements to this team that are already really good, and with Greinke at the front of the rotation -- at the expense of the NL West defending champion -- Arizona is that much more dangerous. The Giants dodged a bullet with the Greinke signing, writes Bruce Jenkins, though San Francisco still has to fill two spots in its rotation.
Notables
• With John Lackey going to the Cubs, the game of starting pitching musical chairs rolls along. Teams still looking for a starting pitcher: the Dodgers, Giants (two), Cardinals, Athletics and Royals. Some of the starters still on the board: Cueto, Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, Doug Fister and Hisashi Iwakuma. The Tigers have an agreement with Mike Pelfrey. This signing is underwhelming, writes Lynn Henning. With Lackey headed to the Cubs, the Cardinals are getting a draft pick -- which might make them comfortable in surrendering a draft pick to signing the likes of Samardzija.
• The Nationals are favorites to land Darren O’Day. A decision is expected soon, writes Roch Kubatko.
• David Price was introduced in Boston and embraced his role with the Red Sox. He is going to be one of David Ortiz’s really good friends, he says.
• The Mets expect Ben Zobrist to make a decision soon. They showed him grass on a recent tour. The Marlins formally introduced Barry Bonds as their hitting coach.
Dings and dents
1. Homer Bailey would like to be back in mid-May, as C. Trent Rosecrans writes.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Braves picked up a relief pitcher from the Mariners.
NL East
Pete Mackanin took the long road to the Dodgers, writes Jake Kaplan. The Marlins say Jose Fernandez is not on the trading block.
NL Central
The Cubs expect the winter meetings to be wild, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
There is a lot of uncertainty for the Reds. Within this piece, there are words from Joey Votto about theoretically waiving his no-trade clause.
NL West
The unpredictable Padres are heading to the winter meetings.
AL East
Ross Atkins is the GM, but Mark Shapiro is calling the shots, writes Steve Simmons.
The news conference was a lovefest, writes Bob Elliott.
This is something Jays fans need to accept, writes Richard Griffin.
Atkins climbed from minor-league pitcher to a GM.
Hanley Ramirez is saying all the right things.
In the picture that accompanies this piece, Ramirez remains enormous, by baseball standards.
AL Central
The White Sox are taking a low-key approach at the winter meetings.
Here’s an attempt to assess the value of Carlos Carrasco and his contract.
Paul Hoynes addresses the question of whether the Indians should take a flier on Pablo Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez.
AL West
Here’s a Mariners budget tool. Some possible targets for the Rangers’ bullpen. The Astros expect prospect A.J. Reed to be back to work.
Lastly
• Jackie Robinson’s personal copy of his Hall of Fame induction plaque is up for sale.
• There is a push for a shorter season, says Tony Clark.
• MLB will have a goodwill tour in Cuba later this month.
• The sport has had record revenues in the past year.
• Sandy Alderson has been diagnosed with cancer. Mike Vaccaro writes about the strong qualities that will help him through this.
And today will be better than yesterday.