The aging process seemed to be suspended during the steroid era, with players performing well into their late 30s and even past their 40th birthdays. But in this era of analytics, there is an increasing age bias, with some executives seemingly leaning on a mantra once popular in the '60s: Don't trust anyone over 30.
The Boston Red Sox lowballed Jon Lester in their negotiations with him, all the way up to the moment he signed with the Chicago Cubs, because of what the metrics told them about investing in older pitchers. Rival executives thought the Los Angeles Angels' signing of Albert Pujols was insanity, because the team bet on Pujols sustaining his production far beyond a player's typical peak years.
But the most recent application of ageism appears to be centered on defense, as the analysis improves and teams learn more about measuring a player's glove work. There is a new working theory for some clubs that in general, the defensive skill of players -- rooted in their range and reaction time -- begins to inevitably decline when the players hit their late 20s. Some evaluators believe this happens earlier than in hitting or pitching because hitters or pitchers can more ably overcome, for a few years anyway, any lost physical skills through the knowledge and experience they've gained.
If a player's primary value is rooted in his defense, some executives believe, you better not count on him holding that excellence into his early 30s or mid-30s.
Andrelton Simmons might be the best working test of this theory, because defense is the backbone of what he provides. He is 26 years old, and he is the best defensive player at the most important position in the field. But already one of the key metrics indicates his best days as a defender might be behind him (more on that below).
This is something to consider in Part 6 of our positional rankings; today we have the 10 best shortstops.
1. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
He just turned 21 years old and has played only 99 games in the big leagues, and placing him at the head of this distinguished list of shortstops feels aggressive. But the overwhelming response of evaluators who offered opinions for these rankings is that Correa already is the best overall player at this position. "He's a clone of Alex Rodriguez when [A-Rod] was with the Mariners," said one evaluator. "The size, the power, everything."
Rodriguez won a batting title in his age-20 season, setting a high bar for Correa (and others), but Correa quickly became the most important player in the Houston lineup, with 22 doubles and 22 homers in those 99 games. He scored 52 runs, drove in 68 and stole 14 bases, and despite the fact that wasn't called up until June, he still finished fourth among all shortstops in wins above replacement (WAR).
Within a few years, one executive said, "the conversation about who is the best player in baseball will include three names: [Mike] Trout, [Bryce] Harper and Correa."
2. Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants
He already has been one of the majors' best defensive shortstops, for which he was just awarded a Gold Glove Award. But he also keeps getting steadily better and better as a hitter.
He had 33 doubles and 21 homers in 2015, with 84 RBIs, and he has become a good complementary hitter for the Giants, making him valuable beyond his defense.
3. Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
It's easy to forget now how much confusion and debate there was within the Red Sox organization about what Bogaerts should be as recently as last year, when he struggled at shortstop at the outset of 2014 and was briefly moved to third base to make room for Stephen Drew. Through those growing pains and through the productive manifestation of his insecurity -- this, according to folks within the Red Sox organization -- Bogaerts pushed to get better, and he broke through in 2015. Bogaerts hit .320, with his contact rates increasing, and only Dee Gordon and Jose Altuve had more hits this year.
Bogaerts also played good at shortstop, not great, but a lot better than some in the Red Sox organization thought possible in those shaky days early in 2014.
4. Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
The Indians' shortstop finished with more WAR in 2015 than Correa; in fact, the only shortstop ahead of Lindor was Crawford. But while evaluators have no doubt that Correa is going to be an impact offensive player, they want to see more of Lindor at the plate before assuming he's going to be the guy who will always hit as well as he did in his first 99 games in the majors, including a .312 average and an .835 OPS. In playing three full seasons in the minors -- always as one of the youngest players in his respective league -- his year-to-year OPS from 2012 to 2014 was .787, .727 and .752.
5. Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays got exactly what they wanted out of Tulowitzki after dealing for him last summer, because his arrival marked a turning point in their season and they sped away from the Yankees and other teams in the AL East, reaching the postseason for the first time since 1993. The real test of his value to the Blue Jays moving forward begins in 2016, because he's under contract for the next five years for $98 million.
Tulowitzki talked about how much fun he had with the Blue Jays, but he didn't thrive in the way he did for much of his time with the Rockies: In 41 games for Toronto, he batted .239, with a .317 on-base percentage.
Was this the late-season impact of nagging injuries? Adjustment to a new league? Small sample size? All of the above?
Some rival evaluators are very curious to see how Tulowitzki fares in his first full season outside of Coors Field. In 10 years in the big leagues, Tulowitzki's OPS at home was 135 points higher than on the road. (.944 to .809).
6. Alcides Escobar, Kansas City Royals
Let's get this out of the way: Among all major leaguers who qualified for the batting title last season, Escobar ranked next-to-last in OPS (.614). He had a .293 on-base percentage, and is never going to be a patient hitter.
All of that is irrefutable, as is this: He's also a world champion, and the shortstop of a team that played in the past two World Series. He batted leadoff for the Royals in the postseason and was a driving force, hitting .329 and scoring 13 runs in 16 games. He has been a terrific player in the most important games, small sample size or not, and that counts for something.
7. Andrelton Simmons, Los Angeles Angels
One of the metrics used to measure defense is defensive runs saved (DRS), and in his first full season in the majors in 2013, Simmons posted a crazy, ridiculous plus-42 in this category; this number, for a shortstop, is to defensive analysis what Babe Ruth's 60 homers were to offensive numbers in 1927.
In 2014, when Simmons coped with an ankle issue, that went down to 28. In 2015, it was 25. The perception of other teams is that the Braves traded him -- and had been working to do so for more than a year -- because they saw greatly diminished value on the horizon. His salary is climbing, through the terms of a multi-year deal through 2020, but his offensive production is subpar, including his tendency to hit into double plays (44 over the past two years). And his best days as baseball's elite defender might be behind him.
The Angels' staff is filled with smart people, from general manager Billy Eppler to manager Mike Scioscia, and they know all of this, and they made the choice to swap their top pitching prospect, Sean Newcomb, for Simmons, because of what they expect to be his impact on their defense and pitching.
8. Adeiny Hechavarria, Miami Marlins
Because he plays in Miami, he is forever underrated and not appreciated enough, other than by the Marlins and rival scouts, who love his creativity on defense. He seems to be getting better at the plate as well, having pushed his average to .281 in 2015.
9. Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs
Cubs catcher David Ross tells a great story about the stoic and serious Russell, who immediately endeared himself to Chicago veterans last spring with his understated manner. Ross was sitting next to Russell watching an exhibition game when a ball was hit to a shortstop on the opposing team, who failed to get an out. Russell said nothing, as usual.
Ross turned to him and asked, in so many words, if Russell could've made that play. Before Ross' last word escaped his mouth, Russell answered decisively: Yes.
This confidence was reflected in Russell's play after he was moved to shortstop permanently on Aug. 7, and it probably isn't a coincidence that the Cubs took off once that happened, winning 38 of their final 55 games.
10. Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis Cardinals
At the time the Cardinals signed Peralta to a four-year, $53 million deal following the 2013 season, there was already concern that Peralta's defense wasn't good enough for him to stay at shortstop. But so far, all the Cardinals have done in Peralta's first two seasons with them is win 190 regular season games and two NL Central titles. Peralta's power does seem to be in decline, however, and he was among the lowest-ranked shortstops in DRS in 2015.
Toughest guys to leave off: the Yankees' Didi Gregorius, who struggled for the first two months of 2015 but played well the last four months, batting .285/.336/.737 from May 29 onward; the Tigers' Jose Iglesias; the Dodgers' Corey Seager, whose impact figures to be immediate.
Cueto spurns Arizona, Zimmermann signs with Detroit
Johnny Cueto turned down $120 million from the Diamondbacks, reports Steve Gilbert. It was an aggressive push by Arizona, writes Nick Piecoro.
Meanwhile, the Tigers continue to move through their to-do list this offseason, reaching an agreement on a deal with starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann.
If you think of the market like a game of musical chairs, it's apparent there's a lot of opportunity and a lot of money remaining in the market.
Here are the teams prepared to spend significant money on a starter:
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants
Red Sox
Cardinals
Cubs
And here are the primary starting pitchers available:
Zack Greinke (would cost a draft pick)
Johnny Cueto
Jeff Samardzija (draft pick)
Wei-Yin Chen (draft pick)
John Lackey (draft pick)
Hisashi Iwakuma (draft pick)
Yovani Gallardo (draft pick)
So while the Diamondbacks haven't been able to land Cueto -- so far -- it stands to reason that they're going to be able to find starting pitching help. If the Red Sox or the Cubs lose out on David Price, there will be more cost-efficient alternatives. The point is, if a team has money to spend this winter, it'll get a good starting pitcher.
The Cubs have money to spend, but so do some other teams, writes Paul Sullivan.
From ESPN Stats & Information: Zimmermann agreed to a five-year, $110 million deal with the Tigers. Only three NL pitchers have more wins than Zimmermann over the past five seasons.
As for the Tigers, they finished with one of the 10 worst records in the majors last season, meaning that their first-round pick is protected from compensation; instead, Detroit will give up a second-round pick to sign Zimmermann. The Tigers have taken the free-agent route for starting pitchers this offseason largely because they don't want to surrender any of the young pitching they acquired last July.
If Detroit signs Fister or some comparable pitcher, their rotation should be OK, albeit not as dynamic as it was three or four years ago. Here's what it looks like now:
RHP Justin Verlander
RHP Anibal Sanchez
RHP Jordan Zimmermann
Free agent to be named
LHP Daniel Norris/LHP Matt Boyd/RHP Shane Greene
This is a risky deal for the Tigers, writes Keith Law.
Notables
• Trevor Cahill is apparently not close to making a decision about where he will sign a one-year deal and look to rebuild his value, but the Pirates have interest, and recent history suggests that prospective free agents do pretty well after spending time in Pittsburgh. J.A. Happ got a $36 million deal last week, A.J. Burnett $16 million with the Phillies two years ago, Edinson Volquez $20 million last year, and Francisco Liriano re-signed with the Pirates for $39 million over three years.
• The Red Sox say that Hanley Ramirez is not going anywhere.
NL East
• The Braves must make a choice with pitcher Mike Minor.
AL Central
• Wilin Rosario could be a fit for the Indians.
• Byung-ho Park has arrived in Minnesota.
Lastly
• A horse owned by Orioles owner Peter Angelos named Showalter won a race.
And today will be better than yesterday.