After a tightly contested elimination round and quarterfinals in the 2024-25 PBA Commissioner's Cup, the two finalists of the conference last season -- San Miguel and Magnolia -- found themselves on the outside looking in much earlier than expected.
San Miguel, the defending champions of the conference, failed to even make the playoffs -- a rare disappointment that last happened in 2015. Even more striking, it has been 20 years since a reigning champion missed the postseason entirely. Magnolia, meanwhile, survived multiple do-or-die games to barely secure a quarterfinals berth -- only to be eliminated in one swift blow by top-seeded NorthPort.
Whether it's other teams catching up or external factors beyond their control, one thing is certain: San Miguel and Magnolia have no shortage of resources to stay competitive and dominate the league. That's what makes their struggles so intriguing. How can teams backed by a powerhouse conglomerate suddenly find themselves struggling to keep up?
San Miguel's stubbornness
While San Miguel's roster remains one of the most talented in the league, their unwillingness to adapt has proven costly. This season exposed the limitations of relying solely on star power -- talent alone isn't enough to guarantee success.
Their struggles at the import position also proved baffling. In the Governors' Cup, it took them four tries before settling on EJ Anosike, and while they were fortunate enough to reach the semifinals, their struggles to find stability at the position were already a red flag. Things only got worse in the Commissioner's Cup, where they cycled through four different imports again, yet never found someone who could provide consistent, import-level production.
This inability to secure the right reinforcement speaks to a larger concern: San Miguel's reluctance to make even the most basic but necessary adjustments. June Mar Fajardo remains a generational talent and one of the most dominant presences in the paint. He averaged 20.1 points, 16.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on an impressive 60.6 TS% in an import-laden conference. His sheer dominance should make it easy to build around him, yet the Beermen struggled to find an import who could complement his skill set -- particularly a stretch big who could help space the floor.
The simplest solution would have been to bring back Bennie Boatwright, last season's Commissioner's Cup import who thrived alongside Fajardo. But with Boatwright unavailable, San Miguel failed to find a suitable alternative. Instead, they cycled through imports who either overlapped with Fajardo's inside presence or lacked the firepower to elevate the team. The end result? A disjointed offense that often felt clogged and predictable.
While the import situation remains a glaring misstep, San Miguel can still address their offensive limitations by fully utilizing the pieces they already have. One major area for improvement is shooting, which could be immediately enhanced by giving more minutes to Juami Tiongson and Don Trollano. Tiongson shot an elite 50% from beyond the arc on 3.6 attempts per game, while Trollano wasn't far behind at 46%. Both players have proven they can stretch the floor -- something San Miguel desperately needs to give Fajardo more space to operate inside.
Magnolia's stagnation
Since winning the 2018 Governors' Cup, Magnolia has consistently been in the mix but always seems to be a piece short of truly breaking through. While they remain one of the league's most disciplined and defensively sound teams, their offensive approach has struggled to keep pace with the evolving PBA landscape.
One of the biggest issues has been their reliance on a slow, half-court offense heavily dependent on post-ups. While this system plays to the strengths of their bruising frontline, it has also made them predictable. Against more dynamic and pace-driven teams, Magnolia often finds itself struggling to generate easy baskets, especially when their perimeter shooting goes cold.
This offensive stagnation has been evident in recent playoff runs. Despite their defensive tenacity, they've repeatedly fallen short against teams that push the tempo and exploit their lack of offensive versatility. While their system has brought them consistent success, it has yet to yield another championship -- and in a league that continues to evolve, sticking with the same formula may no longer be enough.
Compounding this problem is the aging core of their key players. Paul Lee, Ian Sangalang, and Mark Barroca have been the backbone of this team for years, but with each passing season, the wear and tear become more apparent. Lee, once one of the league's premier shot creators, has battled injuries that have affected his consistency. Sangalang, while still effective in the post, has struggled to maintain peak form throughout long conferences. Barroca remains a steady presence and had a stellar conference, but at 38, Magnolia needs to lessen the burden on him in the scoring department and even being the main on-ball defender for guards.
However, there is still hope for Magnolia. The emergence of young talents like Zavier Lucero and Jerom Lastimosa provides optimism for the future. Lucero, an athletic forward with a versatile skill set, has the potential to give Magnolia a much-needed boost in speed and floor spacing.
Lastimosa, on the other hand, brings fresh energy and creativity to the backcourt, offering a new dynamic to an offense that has long relied on its veteran guards. If given more opportunities, these young players could be the key to modernizing Magnolia's system and keeping them competitive in the years to come.
It's too soon to say the SMC empire is crumbling, as Ginebra remains to represent them in the semifinals, but this conference showed that their grip on the league isn't as firm as it once was. Whether this is just a bump in the road or a sign of bigger changes to come, one thing is certain -- the PBA is becoming more unpredictable, and that might be exactly what the league needs.