Maybe we're just overcomplicating it. After all, it's a story we've seen before. Barangay Ginebra and TNT Tropang Giga, two familiar foes, once again squaring off to determine who wears the Governors' Cup crown.
Ginebra, a team that has consistently dominated this conference since the arrival of Justin Brownlee, is making yet another return to the finals. Despite doubts surrounding their revamped roster, they've proven once again that they can adjust and thrive under pressure. Their ability to maintain excellence, even with significant lineup changes, speaks volumes about the depth of their system and the players' adaptability.
On the other hand, TNT enters the finals with the intent to defend their crown. Known for their stout defense, they pose a formidable challenge to Ginebra's title aspirations. Being the only team that has tarnished Brownlee's record in the finals, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson aims to get two over the legendary import.
With both teams equipped with high-level talent and well-crafted strategies, this finals matchup promises to be a clash of champions, with Ginebra seeking to reassert their dominance and TNT determined to hold their ground.
Which team has the edge on offense?
Answer: Ginebra
The story of the conference for Ginebra has been how head coach Tim Cone adapted to their current roster. With the departure of inside presence Christian Standhardinger and the additions of perimeter-oriented players like Stephen Holt and RJ Abarrientos, they have shifted to a faster, transition-oriented style of play. The team now enjoys better spacing thanks to the shooting threats provided by these new acquisitions, along with their super import Justin Brownlee, which amplifies the playmaking of Scottie Thompson. This has opened up multiple scoring options and allowed Ginebra to remain a potent offensive threat despite their roster changes.
According to InStat, Ginebra leads the league with a 101.1 offensive rating. Unlike previous conferences, where they relied heavily on players like Standhardinger for scoring in isolations, their signature ball movement has been their biggest asset. They also top the league in assists, averaging 26.8 per game. What's different this time is how they've capitalized on transition scoring - something not usually associated with a Tim Cone-coached team. Ginebra has spent 11.9% of their possessions in transition, generating an impressive 1.26 points per possession (PPP). With a smaller lineup, their fast-paced approach and optimal spacing have proven highly effective.
Meanwhile, it's been uncharacteristic for TNT to be this inconsistent on offense. From the tracking of InStat for their 19 games this conference, they managed only an 88.6 offensive rating. Although it picked up in the quarterfinals (93.7 ORTG), this dropped even lower in the semifinals (81 ORTG) - making it a prerogative for TNT to put the game in the mud.
Among TNT's most frequent play types in this conference, they score above one point per possession only in transition (a solid 1.04 PPP). The other key areas -- catch-and-shoots (0.96 PPP), catch-and-drives (0.65 PPP), and shots by the pick-and-roll ball handler (0.63 PPP) -- all have room for improvement. To maximize their offensive potential, TNT will need to sharpen their execution on these plays, especially as they face a disciplined team like Ginebra.
Which team has the edge on defense?
Answer: TNT
In the last Governors' Cup, TNT held the second highest offensive rating for the conference of 100.3 points per 100 possessions. One season after, this same team has transformed its identity to negate their offensive woes by becoming the best defense in the PBA with an 81.1 defensive rating.
They achieved this switch in part because of the versatility of their roster. Before JP Erram and Kelly Williams returned, they had the luxury of having Hollis-Jefferson be able to switch from starting center to all other positions. Lengthy wings Glenn Khobuntin and Calvin Oftana could be tasked with defending imports. And now that their bigs are available, they have a formidable defense that does not allow easy buckets close to the rim.
InStat numbers show just how tough it is to score around the basket against TNT. Opponents managed just 0.69 points per possession (PPP) when the roller takes the shot in a pick-and-roll, 0.61 PPP on catch-and-drives, and 0.57 PPP on post-ups. TNT has also excelled in transition defense, allowing only 0.85 PPP. If these stats seem abstract, they highlight TNT's elite defensive performance in multiple areas of the game, making it extremely difficult for opponents to score efficiently.
Meanwhile, Ginebra isn't slouching on defense either. In fact, their defensive rating of 96.7 points per 100 possessions is just above the league average of 96.9. The trade-off of playing at a faster pace, however, seems to have taken a toll on their defense, especially with their current lack of depth in the big man rotation. Despite this, Ginebra holds its ground in the rebounding department, winning the defensive rebounding battle 28.7 to 26.8. However, they're getting outworked on the offensive glass, where opponents hold a 15.5 to 11.9 advantage.
X-factor for Ginebra: RJ Abarrientos
Ginebra's Achilles heel will always be its depth, as Cone has relied heavily on six to seven players come playoff time. That makes rookie guard RJ Abarrientos' emergence as a spark off the bench critical for Ginebra as its starters take a break. Zooming into the playoffs, he has averaged 12.9 points and 3.2 assists on 45/38/90 shooting splits.
Against San Miguel, Abarrientos blossomed even more when Ginebra tapped into putting June Mar Fajardo in ball screen actions. He became the catalyst in their Game 5 win in the semifinals when he dropped a career high 28 points on an extremely efficient 84.1 TS%
Going into this series versus TNT, his shotmaking and ability to create shots off the dribble should be vital against a high quality defense. When the offense gets stagnant, Ginebra can turn to Abarrientos to provide jolt in terms of his playmaking and elite play finisher (1.22 PPP in catch and shoots) to counter TNT's defense in the half court.
X-factor for TNT: Rey Nambatac
When TNT won the last Governors' Cup last year, they had the luxury of Mikey Williams, who could create his own shots to relieve Hollis-Jefferson. For context, Williams, the reigning Finals MVP of this conference, averaged 18.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.9 assists on a 54.7% true shooting percentage. This conference, TNT has sought to fill that void with Rey Nambatac.
While it's a tall order to replace Williams' production with just one player, Nambatac has provided much-needed stability in TNT's guard play. In their semifinals matchup against Rain or Shine, Nambatac posted impressive averages of 14.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists on a 57.9% true shooting percentage. Notably, he did much of his damage in the third quarter of games -- scoring in double figures in three of the five.
This type of efficiency will be crucial against Ginebra, knowing Hollis-Jefferson can't carry the load alone. According to InStat, Nambatac has been a force in transition and catch-and-shoot situations, with TNT scoring 1.38 points per possession (PPP) and 1.09 PPP, respectively, when he takes the shot. With Ginebra's defense being vulnerable in transition, Nambatac's ability to exploit those gaps could be the key to breaking through the erratic offense of TNT.
Prediction: Ginebra in 6
Both imports might just cancel one another in this series, but Ginebra's scoring can be too much to handle for TNT's defense -- because of their ability to be effective in transition and in the half court.