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Why every AFLW finalist can -- and can't -- go all the way in 2025

The 2025 AFLW finals series starts on Friday and, although North Melbourne seem unbeatable with 24 unanswered wins, the surprise packets of the season have come out in force.

Let's take a look at each side in contention and see what could see them go all the way or fall at the final hurdle.


North Melbourne

Why they could win it: They're the reigning premiers and enter as the most undeniably dominant side of the season. They extended their winning streak to 24 heading into finals, meaning they haven't lost a game all year. It's déjà vu this week when they face the Hawks again in a replay of last Friday night's match-up, this time in a qualifying final. They'll have a double chance and have an obvious confidence coming in. They have had the luxury of resting some players in the last couple of weeks to prepare them for finals and they know exactly how to run straight through and win the big dance.

Why they might not: This is a tricky one to write, but even the best teams can slip under the pressure of finals, and if North lose their key midfielders or get caught in a sudden-death scenario they haven't had many of in the past few seasons, they could be vulnerable. Key midfielder Eilish Sheerin is a test for this week's game, and they'll be hoping she can return, however the depth they have in the centre will likely not suffer too much.

Verdict: They're the hot favourites for obvious reasons. If they maintain their form and stay healthy, they're clearly the ones to beat.

Melbourne

Why they could win it: After a less-than-ideal 2024, Melbourne appears to be back in form and locked in a top two finish. Their injection of youth with some new draftees, their previous finals experience, and the colossal goal kicking efforts by captain Kate Hore and star Eden Zanker puts them in hot contention. Improved list depth gives them a chance. They have a few injuries but you could argue to players that can be covered by the rest of the squad. They face a qualifying final in Week 1 against Brisbane -- another side with extensive finals experience -- but Melbourne have proven to be the better side this year and will be hoping to lock this in.

Why they might not: They're still rebuilding somewhat and have had some inconsistent stages throughout the season. They'll need to guide their younger, less experienced players through the high-pressure environment that is finals footy.

Verdict: Dark horse with upside, if they handle the big moments, they could surprise us all.

Brisbane Lions

Why they could win it: They have had one of the most consistent lists across the 10 seasons of the competition, with a huge portion of their list having been a part of one, two or three of their premiership wins. They bring credibility and finals experience and know how to win under pressure, not to mention they have a strong midfield.

Why they might not: Injuries and depth issues are looming. Cathy Svarc faces a one-week ban for an elbow to Collingwood's Kalinda Howarth, but at the time of writing Brisbane plan to challenge this at the tribunal. This will be a big factor in their success.

Verdict: A very real threat, but they can't afford a slip-up.

Hawthorn

Why they could win it: Hawthorn bring an attacking/defensive balance, and perhaps a bit of momentum heading into finals. They take on North Melbourne in the qualifying final which gives them a chance to make a statement against the team they lost to last week, which will likely put a fire in their bellies.

Why they might not: They need to beat the near-unbeatable Kangaroos. That's the crux of it for this side in Week 1. Although a relatively fit and firing side, they have been plagued by some big injuries in recent weeks. Most notably, their captain Emily Bates is out for at least this week with an SC joint injury which will leave a hole in their midfield, and Lucy Wales is still recovering from a ruptured appendix. Although they are a side hot in contention and have spent a large portion of the year in the upper three on the ladder, they have less experience in do-or-die situations than some of the other finalists.

Verdict: If their key players return and they catch North in an off game, they're dangerous, but the injuries make it tougher.

Carlton

Why they could win it: Carlton arrive at finals with a clean bill of health, and seemingly peaking at the perfect time of the season. They face West Coast in a home elimination final which is theirs to win if things fall into place. They've had some star performers this year in captain Abbie McKay and younger sister Sophie, Poppy Scholz, and Mimi Hill, and seem to have their systems down pat. The Eagles just scraped into finals thanks to a shock loss by Sydney to Essendon, so they'll be working hard and will need a bit to go right to beat an in-form Blues side.

Why they might not: Being in an elimination final means there's no margin for error. Their forward line and consistency can be called into question when the pressure is on, and they're a young side with little finals experience. They'll be hoping to maintain full health and accuracy in front of goals to progress into Week 2.

Verdict: Outsider with a chance on their day, but the pressure of elimination mode may count against them.

Adelaide Crows

Why they could win it: Adelaide are proven finals performers, and while an unusually-inconsistent season saw them book a finals place based on the Round 12 result, they know how to get going in high stakes footy. They face St Kilda in an elimination final, who lost to the Western Bulldogs by 45 points, which is an incredibly disappointing result to start the business end of the season. This may put the Saints off, or send them into action.

Why they might not: There are questions around their resource against more battle-hardened opponents, and arguably haven't had the toughest draw this year. They also face the do-or-die scenario immediately, meaning there is no second chance.

Verdict: A wildcard, capable of a run if they click and avoid pressure cracks.

St Kilda

Why they could win it: St Kilda have the fresh impetus of being under-the-radar, which can help in finals. Their young list may have fewer expectations and thus less pressure.

Why they might not: They are facing an elimination final in Week 1 which means immediate risk of exit. They are off the back of an incredibly disheartening loss to the Bulldogs, and despite still making their way to a finals campaign, do not look to be in hot form. They have been ravaged by injuries and will have to dip into more fringe players to get the team on the park.

Verdict: Long shot with potential, but significant barriers to overcome.

West Coast Eagles

Why they could win it: The Eagles have made it to their first ever finals campaign, and boy are they happy about it. Seemingly accepting that they had missed their chance for another year, they were as surprised as us all when a shock result in the Swans vs. Bombers game booked them a last-minute spot in the top eight. They have the freedom of having nothing to lose, a mindset which can bode well in these environments. Their coach, Daisy Pearce, is one of the most experienced finals campaigners in the league and will be a wealth of knowledge for the young side.

Why they might not: Inexperience in finals is a real factor, as well as having to travel from the West to face Carlton this week.

Verdict: Inspirational underdog, fun to watch, but the odds are steep.