Does the AFL have to seriously reconsider how the Brownlow Medal voting system works? Should the Lions take the risk and play Lachie Neale despite his calf injury?
Let's get to this week's overreactions, where we judge a few major takeaways as legitimate or irrational.
It's time to take Brownlow Medal voting off the umpires
The Brownlow Medal count always throws up surprises, but last night's result felt like more than that. Gold Coast's Matt Rowell surged to a whopping 39 votes, polling threes in games where many thought he barely featured, while one of the hot favourites and teammate Noah Anderson fell well short.
Rowell is the quintessential Brownlow prototype -- a clearance beast who tackles hard and is constantly under the umpires' noses. But his vote tally, including best-on-grounds in matches where he didn't even get a mention in the coaches' votes, has reignited the annual debate: should umpires be the ones deciding this award?
Verdict: Overreaction
Here's the thing -- the Brownlow is, and always has been, the umpires' award. That's the point.
Rowell might not have been the consensus 'best player' in some of those games he polled in, but he fit the criteria of what umpires value -- effort around stoppages and contested work. We as fans and media have elevated the Brownlow to the most prestigious individual honour in the game, and that's fine, but that doesn't make it the ultimate truth. It's simply one perspective among many.
Take Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera's Round 20 snub as another example. His 34 disposals and four-goal heroics against Melbourne screamed three votes, it was probably the individual performance of the season, and yet he walked away without the three. Even Demons stars Max Gawn and Christian Petracca laughed in disbelief when the result came through. But again, it's the umpires' interpretation. It's just their lens.
If we're serious about recognising the 'best' player, let's spread the weight. The coaches' award, the AFLPA MVP, the Brownlow... they each reflect a different perspective. Put together they tell a full story. The Brownlow doesn't need fixing. It just needs to be seen for what it is -- the umpires' view, and one valuable piece of a much bigger picture.
And congratulations Matt Rowell on an unbelievable season. A 39-vote worthy season? Yes, because that's how the umpires saw it.
A season not worthy of the coaches' award though? Correct, because that's how the coaches saw it. Get it?
-- Jarryd Barca
The Lions have to roll the dice on Lachie Neale
Two-time Brownlow Medal winner Lachie Neale pinged his calf in the Lions' qualifying final loss to Geelong. That was less than three weeks prior to Saturday's Grand Final. But the star midfielder has set a goal to try and be fit in time for the decider. But should Chris Fagan and the Lions' coaching staff run the risk?
Verdict: Overreaction
The Lions simply cannot take this risk on the biggest day of the year. For all the noise Neale has been making about wanting to come back into the side for the big game, it has be smoke and mirrors, right? A ploy to distract the Cats, and have them plan for Neale's return?
Let's look at the precedent -- starting with last week's preliminary final against Collingwood. Magpies stalwart Scott Pendlebury was seen having discussions with the team's medical staff prior to the match, in hindsight, clearly about his tight calf. Five minutes into the game, he was subbed out that calf done. Brody Mihocek was brought back from a toe injury -- it's clear he was underdone. Jeremy Howe too.
Want to go further back? Sam Reid suffered an adductor injury in the 2022 finals series, and suited up for the Swans in the Grand Final of that year. He was subbed out before half time as he was not fit and it was widely lauded as one of the worst selection moves in recent history. Phil Davis for the Giants in 2019. He carried a calf injury into the Grand Final, had a fitness test on the day, and was very underwhelming.
Looking at it more simply, they've won two cut-throat finals without Neale. Will Ashcroft has stepped into the contested role a bit more (he averages more score involvements, goals, and Rating Points without Neale in the side), Hugh McCluggage has had a bonanza fortnight, Josh Dunkley might be the most dependable midfielder in the game, and between Zac Bailey and Levi Ashcroft, there's adequate centre bounce depth.
Don't risk it, it's been not even three weeks, and it's a calf -- one of the most fickle soft tissue injuries. This isn't bruised ribs, a tweaked ankle, or a popped shoulder (in the case of Jarrod Berry) that you can tape and jab. It rarely works.
-- Matt Walsh