<
>

Footy heartland set for biggest weekend in 15 years? It's not crazy

play
Eade: AFL 'created a problem' with insufficient intent rule (2:10)

On the Footyology podcast, Rodney Eade says the AFL seeking to introduce a 'last disposal' rule to replace 'insufficient intent' is the result of poor rulemaking from the league. (2:10)

This has been a great year for the concept of a truly national AFL competition, with teams from every state reaching finals and Gold Coast breaking its September duck.

So you have to smile at the irony of this week's two preliminary finals giving Melbourne the biggest football weekend it's had in arguably 15 years.

Just once since 2011 (six years ago in 2019) have both preliminary finals been held at the MCG. And neither of those games (Richmond vs. Geelong and Collingwood vs. GWS) had nearly the same amount of pizzazz attached to them as Friday and Saturday night will.

Geelong vs. Hawthorn, of course, needs no introduction, the Cats and Hawks routinely serving up classics ever since one of the greatest games of football ever played, the 1989 Grand Final.

Collingwood vs. Brisbane, meanwhile, is a contemporary rivalry for the ages, the 2023 Grand Final another contender for "GOAT" status, their famous 2002-03 premiership playoffs providing the nod to history, and their Good Friday eve Gabba jousts now also a big part of the football calendar.

These are two bona fide heavyweight bouts, regardless of the fact one of the combatants (Hawthorn) finished only eighth on the premiership ladder, more underlining of just how tight was the contest between the top half of the competition this season.

The Hawks, after all, have now twice this season beaten the team which finished on top of the ladder, beaten fifth (GWS) twice and pushed second and third to within seven and 10 points.

That seven-point defeat to Geelong on Easter Monday was one of the best couple of games of the season in front of nearly 90,000 people, a pulsating contest in which Hawthorn hauled back an early four-goal deficit, the margin just a handful of points for much of the final quarter.

The Pies and Lions, meanwhile, each have a win over the other on enemy soil this season, Collingwood as good as it's been all year in its 52-point demolition job in April, the Lions' five-goal eclipse of the Pies on the MCG in Round 21 the perfect response to its smacking at the hands of Gold Coast the previous week.

And yep, just as Brisbane's ruthless dispatching of the Suns on Saturday night was the antidote to its qualifying final loss to Geelong.

That there was a harder edge to this version of the Lions that has been obvious since they fought their way from fifth to a flag last year with four finals wins in a row, the last three all on the road.

This time a top-four finish enabled them a stumble, but again they're doing it under duress and finding a way, no Lachie Neale on Saturday, key position types like Eric Hipwood and Jack Payne long gone, yet Brisbane still dominant, where Will Ashcroft rose to his Norm Smith Medal-winning levels, and Josh Dunkley and Hugh McCluggage outstanding.

Like Hawthorn against Geelong, the Lions are starting outsiders in their preliminary final, but very much with a "underestimate at your peril" sign hanging conspicuously on the door of the dressing room.

Geelong would rightfully dispute this claim, but there's a decent-sized argument that Brisbane's absolute best, on display again in its second-quarter eclipse of Gold Coast, is still the best in the competition.

Hawthorn, young and precocious though it is, and by some margin the least finals-hardened of the remaining four teams, can't match a claim like that, but it can attest to the power of momentum and belief, and two back-to-back finals road wins will offer a power of that.

They've been terrific, the Hawks, and Jack Gunston's "Benjamin Button" shtick continues to amaze, his five-goal haul against the Suns a masterclass of forward craft and precision. Jai Newcombe's first-quarter effort out of the square, meanwhile (11 disposals, five centre clearances) was one of the best individual finals quarters in a long time.

And the power of history? Well, scoff all you like, but the words Hawthorn, MCG, finals and Geelong have an almost mythical quality about them when it comes to the brown-and-gold's capacity to rise to the big occasion.

You know much of it. The famous 1989 battle. Hawthorn's famous upsetting of Geelong's apple cart on Grand Final day 2008 after the Cats had won 23 of 24 previous games. The breaking of the "Kennett curse" in the 2013 preliminary final leading to the first of a trifecta of Hawthorn premierships.

Geelong did beat Hawthorn to win the 1963 Grand Final, but since then their finals head-to-head record is 6-2 the Hawks' way. Which means the Cats' recent dominance against their famous foe (they've won six of the past seven clashes) perhaps won't count (at least psychologically) for nearly as much as some more jittery Geelong folk would like.

I've been mildly surprised how long a price the nominal "outsiders" for these two games are ($2.45 Hawthorn, $2.25 Brisbane). But I suspect those numbers will tighten more than a little by game time.

Why? Because as we effectively step back to the days when most finals were at the 'G and those interstate were more of a novelty, people will simply remember better how big a task preliminary finals are to win, regardless of form or logic.

Big crowds, big pressure, no margin for error. We're about to witness two prime examples of it, and it's going to be a bumper 24 hours or so of football for anyone in this football-mad country, let alone those in this football competition's one-time traditional heartland.

You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.