Are the Crows or Lions more likely to go out in 'straight sets'? Will a 'last touch' rule work in the AFL?
Let's get to this week's overreactions, where we judge a few major takeaways as legitimate or irrational.
The Lions are more likely to bow out in straight sets than the Crows
Both Brisbane and Adelaide will have to pick themselves up for home semifinals this week after suffering tough defeats in the first week of finals. The Crows will host Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval on Friday evening before the Lions take on state rival Gold Coast at the Gabba 24 hours later. These are two mouthwatering clashes, and everyone is sure to be on straight sets watch.
Verdict: Not an overreaction
It's quite common for the entire footy world to be overly down on the two qualifying final losers and overly high on the two elimination final winners. After all, you're only as good as your last performance, right?
However, interestingly, only twice have we not seen a team suffer a straight sets finals exit since 2015, which means we're more than likely going to see at least one of the Lions and Crows get beaten this weekend. So, which club is more likely to add to this unwanted statistic? Call me crazy, but it might well be reigning premier Brisbane.
Now, it must be acknowledged the Hawks are also a very real chance of upsetting the Crows in Adelaide. In fact, bookmakers believe they're a greater chance of winning than the Suns are against Brisbane. But unlike Gold Coast, Hawthorn has to jump back on a plane and travel interstate to face a team that recently beat them.
If Gold Coast was able to draft its opponent for this week FROM the other five teams remaining, and had to face that side away from home, it's inarguable: they'd select the Lions. Think about it for a moment. The other options would be Collingwood at the MCG, Geelong at the MCG, Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, or Hawthorn at the MCG. No thanks! Instead, Brisbane at the Gabba is a near perfect scenario for them.
Damien Hardwick's side just recorded the biggest win in club history, knocking off Fremantle in the west by a solitary point, and now enjoy the luxury of not having to hop on another flight for their road semifinal. They're coming up against a side they're extremely familiar with, one they humiliated by 11 goals just six weeks earlier, and one that is reeling with injuries to key personnel, including two-time Brownlow Medal winner Lachie Neale and forward Eric Hipwood. There's really no better time to face them in a final than this weekend.
Now, am I writing off the Lions? Absolutely not. This club is a known quantity in September and still deserves its favouritism against Gold Coast. But if you think the Suns won't be up for the challenge, or ready to cause another major upset, you're kidding yourself.
-- Jake Michaels
A last disposal rule in the AFL would be a resounding success
The AFL is widely tipped to introduce a 'last disposal' out of bounds rule in 2026, to replace the correct 'insufficient intent' rule. In short, between the 50 metre arcs, if the ball goes out of bounds off a clear disposal (a kick or a handball), a free kick would be paid against the team that disposed of the ball. It would eliminate the guesswork associated with 'insufficient intent', and incoming AFL footy boss Greg Swann said it would only result in two or three extra free kicks per game.
Verdict: Not an overreaction
Some more details would be nice, but at this early stage, this appears a good move for the AFL. It can be summed up by one point: it will remove the grey area of judging 'intent', and bring in the black and white 'who did it come off?'.
A rule like this has worked in the AFLW and the SANFL for years. Not only would it keep the game moving, with players kicking the ball back in from the boundary, it would result in fewer ugly stoppages, both at throw-ins and subsequent ball-ups. It must be said, though, it's subjective (especially to coaches!) as to whether fewer stoppages is indeed a bad thing for the game.
Plus, any rule tweak which stops moronic football fans from crying out "DELIBERATE" -- a rule that hasn't existed since, what, 2017? -- is a win in my books.
-- Matt Walsh