Round 9 of the 2025 AFL season is in the books. So, it's time to react ... or overreact.
Should the AFL introduce an NBA-style draft lottery? Bailey Smith should now be the favourite to win the Brownlow Medal?
Let's get to this week's overreactions, where we judge a few major takeaways as legitimate or irrational.
The AFL should have an NBA-style draft lottery
It feels as if this question gets thrown up and debated every single May, and this year is certainly no exception. Earlier this week, the Dallas Mavericks landed the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, despite already holding two former No. 1 picks on their roster, only just missing the playoffs, and having an incredibly slim 1.8% chance of securing the prized first selection.
Verdict: (Massive) overreaction
Not everything done in sporting leagues abroad needs to be copied by the AFL. In fact, we'd urge Andrew Dillon and his team at AFL House to steer well clear of any sort of draft lottery ... now and into the future.
Could you imagine the outrage if the equivalent happened in the AFL? It would be like the Blues or Dockers, two sides spoken about as bone fide premiership contenders just two months ago, earning the right to take the next Harley Reid. Meanwhile, the Eagles, Kangaroos, and Tigers could continue to be anchored to the bottom of the ladder year after year without a top pick.
There are some who argue a draft lottery is a good thing for the game as it discourages tanking. Maybe, maybe not. After all, a team's odds of a higher value pick increase based on how low they finish, so it's not exactly uncorrelated. Plus, is tanking really that much of an issue in today's game. I think not. Don't mess with something that's not broken.
Bailey Smith should be the favourite to win the Brownlow Medal
Heading into season 2025, Bailey Smith hadn't played a game of football in 18 months. Boy has he not missed a beat! Geelong's star recruit has been one of the players of the season to date, averaging 31 disposals, 10 contested possessions, six inside 50s, six tackles, and five clearances per game for his new club.
Verdict: Overreaction
After 10 weeks of scintillating football, Smith finds himself on the second line of betting with bookmakers, paying around $9 to take home 'Charlie'. The only man they consider more likely to win the award? Nick Daicos. Right now, both Smith and Daicos are involved with Jordan Dawson and Tom Liberatore in a four-way tie at the top of ESPN's Brownlow Medal leaderboard.
So who should be the favourite? Well, Daicos, obviously. The young Collingwood champ has also hit the ground running, averaging 29 disposals, 12 contested possessions, seven clearances, and five inside 50s per game in 2025. He is the better player and on a team likely to win more games this season.
Daicos is also a proven Brownlow vote poller, tallying a ridiculous 66 over the last two years. And then there's Smith, who has polled 29 for his entire career!
Can Smith win it? Absolutely. He's in red-hot form and stands out every time he has the Sherrin in hand. But should he be the favourite over Daicos? Not right now.