For the first time since 2017, clubs aren't confident who the No. 1 pick will be just five days out from the AFL Draft.
In the deepest and most even pool in recent memory, Richmond has kept cards close to their chest, with the only surety being that the selection won't be traded. The first round is always shaped by a surprise in the top 10. This year, that draft-shaping shock could happen at No. 1.
The night of November 20 will play host to the 2024 AFL Draft first round, which is likely to be extended to 26-plus selections taking in father-son and academy bids. The Tigers will kick off the night and have another seven selections in top 24, rivalling the hands of the Suns and Giants ahead of their inaugural seasons.
Who will be the No. 1 pick in the AFL Draft?
Richmond has a smorgasbord of options at the top, and aren't expected to bid on Levi Ashcroft.
Sam Lalor is the Dusty clone in pick 1 favouritism. His archetype doesn't always hit - but when it does, the club is handsomely rewarded. Lalor is a fierce, burly midfielder who arguably does his best work forward of the ball.
READ: The powerful goalkicking midfielder likened to Dusty by his coach
A handy cricketer throughout his summers growing up, Lalor's first game of 2024 was a seven-goal haul for Geelong Grammar. He also notched an utterly dominant 34-disposal game for the GWV Rebels as a pure inside midfielder.
Lalor matches his ferocity and overwhelming power with class, smarts and balance. It's no wonder Richmond has become enamoured with his game-breaking qualities. But there's no guarantee that Lalor makes it as a midfielder at the next level. If he ends up more Cam Rayner than Christian Petracca it won't quite be the homerun swing Richmond is craving.
Finn O'Sullivan continues to be a name raised in possibilities, a supremely talented midfielder who entered 2024 as the warm favourite to be pick 1.
Carlton is one club readily forgiving his wretched run with injuries and form this season, but others have genuine concerns about O'Sullivan's ability to become an A-grade midfielder if he can't find more of the ball. The Koroit native remains in the frame for the no. 1 selection.
Jagga Smith is now an outside chance for the top spot. Already the ultimate professional, Jagga is a brilliant teammate and stunningly prolific ball-winner who should play all 23 AFL games next year. He's more likely to fit into the 3-7 bracket.
READ: Jagga Smith, the 2024 AFL Draft's most exciting midfielder
Who are the father-son and academy prospects?
Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane father-son), Leo Lombard (Gold Coast Academy), Isaac Kako (Essendon NGA), and Ben and Lucas Camporeale (Carlton father-sons) headline the club-tied prospects in 2024. But this class runs deep with talent already connected to AFL clubs.
Lions academy graduate Sam Marshall should attract a first round bid after being named best on ground in the Coates Talent League grand final. Essendon is primed to welcome dashing defender Jayden Nguyen to the list, either via the national draft or as a category-B rookie.
St Kilda NGA duo Adrian Cole and Lennox Hofmann should attract national draft bids, while mercurial small forward Malakai Champion is tied to West Coast via the Kalgoorlie catchment. Adelaide is excited to welcome father-son forward Tyler Welsh, who has flown under the radar this season despite kicking eight goals in four games for SA.
The Burgoyne lineage won't extend at Port Adelaide, however, after the club decided not to list Rome Burgoyne along with fellow father-son prospects Louie Montgomery, Ky Burgoyne or Josh Francou. They have nominated exciting small forward Benny Barrett via their NGA.
Sydney is prepared for a late bid on academy defender Joel Cochran, and GWS will match a bid on academy ruck Logan Smith. Hawthorn has first access to NGA graduate Cody Anderson, and the younger brother of Mac Andrew, Riak, could land at the Dees in addition to Northern Territory dazzler Ricky Mentha.
Father-son Elwood Peckett will likely find his way to the Saints as a category-B rookie, Jaren Carr has been nominated by Fremantle and North Melbourne has committed to River Stevens.
How does live pick trading work?
Clubs can no longer trade out and back into the draft to match a bid on father-son or academy talent. It's a loophole closed by the AFL that consequently saw Essendon trade its coveted pick 9 to Melbourne in the trade period, with an eye to getting back into the first-round frame while also accumulating the points to match a bid on NGA live-wire Isaac Kako.
Kako's draft range sits anywhere from pick 7 to 15 with Melbourne and St Kilda considering a bid on the small forward that kicked eight goals in his four Vic Metro games.
What live trades will be made in the AFL Draft?
North Melbourne is the first live trade chance of the night at pick 2. Clubs understand the selection is gettable, but would require two high picks which means only the Demons, Saints or Tigers could satisfy the Roos' demands currently.
They have an eye on the high-flying Alix Tauru who's become the draft's biggest bolter. Interest has grown so much that North can't trade too far down or risk missing out on the swingman altogether.
The more likely scenario to play out is Adelaide moving up from pick 4 to 2 via a future selection, meaning they jump Carlton to select their man and North still claims Tauru. If North holds pick 2, their future first selection has remained on the table to get back into the top 10 on draft night.
Further down the order, expect one or two of Richmond's picks to be moved into the 2025 draft. The club knows adding eight youngsters in the same crop is heavily betting on the one draft and leaves them vulnerable at the conclusion of 2027 when they all come out of contract. The Tigers are set to target midfielders with picks 1 and 6, then ease list needs with their remaining selections.
West Coast and Essendon have signalled their intent to get back into the top 30 picture. For the Eagles, Hawthorn's future first and their future second could net them a selection on night one. They've been linked to tall forwards Jack Whitlock, Jobe Shanahan and Jonty Faull.
The Bombers will have Melbourne's future first on the table, but may not be able to get back into the draft until the Giants' picks 15 and 16. Shanahan dominated under the noses of Essendon officials for their VFL side, while crafty forwards Joe Berry, Oli Hannaford and Cooper Hynes will all appeal.
GWS and Sydney are clubs seen as live trade out chances on night one.
How many picks will there be in the 2024 AFL Draft?
A maximum of 92 selections can be taken in the AFL Draft, but spots will be reserved for rookie upgrades, the rookie draft and the pre-season supplemental selection period.
Clubs expect the total number of picks to sit between 65-75. The past four drafts following Covid list spot reductions have totalled 59, 65, 59 and 64 picks. 70-plus selections for the first time since 2018 is a real possibility given the depth of 2024's talent pool.
2024 AFL Draft key dates:
Nov. 20: AFL Draft first round from 7pm EDT
Nov. 21: AFL Draft remaining from 6:30pm EDT
Nov. 22: AFL Rookie Draft from 12pm EDT
Every club's 2024 AFL Draft hand:
Adelaide: 4, 64, 78
Brisbane: 27, 34, 42, 43, 49, 58
Carlton: 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 71
Collingwood: 52, 55, 60, 66, 82
Essendon: 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65
Fremantle: 14, 30, 67, 81, 89
Geelong: 45, 57, 74, 84
Gold Coast: 39, 41, 51, 61
GWS: 15, 16, 21, 37, 56, 73
Hawthorn: 33, 70, 75
Melbourne: 5, 9, 79
North Melbourne: 2, 62, 76, 86
Port Adelaide: 13, 29, 36, 50
Richmond: 1, 6, 10, 11, 18, 20, 23, 24
St Kilda: 7, 8, 32, 47, 80, 88
Sydney: 19, 22, 44, 59, 85, 91
West Coast: 12, 26, 72, 77, 87, 92
Western Bulldogs: 17, 25, 35, 48, 83, 90