Who are the favourites for the 2025 AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club four months out from the start of the season.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2025 season.
The rightful, deserving championship belt holders
1. BRISBANE
Are the Lions the team to beat in 2025? Well, it depends who you ask. Some argue the reigning premier will only get better in 2025 when the likes of Keidean Coleman, Tom Doedee, and Oscar McInerney return from injury and the highly credentialed Levi Ashcroft, selected as a father-son at pick No. 5 in last month's AFL Draft, makes his debut. Then there's others who feel the loss of Joe Daniher -- one of only two players to average two goals and 16 disposals per game in 2024 -- will prove too costly. Either way, until we see someone actually overtake them, Chris Fagan's Lions deserve to hold top billing on these AFL tiers.
The hopeful goldfish
2. SYDNEY
3. CARLTON
4. GWS
The quicker these three teams can get the sour taste of 2024 out of their mouths the better. Sydney was humiliated in the Grand Final for the second time in three years, while Carlton completely capitulated in the back end of the campaign, winning just two of its final nine games to very nearly miss out on a finals berth. And then there's GWS, who had arguably the biggest finals capitulation in AFL history. Despite the pain and heartbreak, these three sides should not panic. Instead, they need to adopt the memory of a goldfish; forget and move on. The Swans sat atop the ladder from basically 'go to whoa' last season and no matter how poor their Grand Final showing was, there's no reason to believe they won't be in the mix in 2025. For the Blues, it was no surprise its form slump coincided with a plethora of injuries. It's never an excuse, but it's certainly a reason. And if the Giants don't blow that 44-point lead to the Lions are they premiers right now? Maybe. The best of these clubs is certainly good enough.
BUY that stock!
5. HAWTHORN
6. COLLINGWOOD
7. FREMANTLE
Here's a big call ... one of these teams will play in the 2025 Grand Final. The Hawks were the best side in the competition for FIVE months in 2024, leading the league in points for and points against during a breathtaking 15-4 run. I love the additions of Tom Barrass and Josh Battle (do the Hawks have the best backline in the league now?) while forgotten key forward Mitch Lewis will also return to the fold. Collingwood's disappointing premiership defence is now firmly in the rearview mirror, and while I'm not super bullish on buying stock in them long term, there's definite short term appeal. The Pies will welcome key personnel back from injury and landed one of the biggest fish in the trade and free agency pool in two-time All Australian, Dan Houston. And then there's the Dockers. They ticked so many boxes in 2024 and looked a top six-ish side for stretches. The list profile is well positioned and, like all the clubs in this tier, with a kind fixture are primed to take a leap in 2025.
SELL that stock!
8. GEELONG
9. PORT ADELAIDE
Were the Cats one win away from playing in a Grand Final? Sure. But were they also one loss away from potentially (and let's face it, likely) being dumped from finals in straight sets? Also true. And had Port not stunk it up in that qualifying final at Adelaide Oval, the outlook for Geelong would look a whole lot bleaker, even with the offseason addition of Bailey Smith. I think the Cats will be around the sixth to 10th best team next year, but is that really going to cut it? Now to Port. I fear this club's stint at the top is drawing to a close. They've lost Dan Houston, continue to look suspect defensively, and have a tough fixture in 2025. Just like the Cats, Port can play finals, but are they a genuine flag contender? I'm not convinced the window is as ajar as it's been in recent years.
High floor, low ceiling
10. WESTERN BULLDOGS
11. MELBOURNE
The Bulldogs are perhaps the toughest team to rank four months out from the beginning of season 2025. On one hand, Luke Beveridge's side feels like a legitimate premiership contender. On the other, you wouldn't be stunned if they finished the year outside the top eight. The Bulldogs lost the experienced trio of Bailey Smith, Jack Macrae, and Caleb Daniel, but will be hopeful that's offset by the development of its talented youngsters. Melbourne, meanwhile, is coming off a horror season in which it battled injuries and a plethora of off-field issues. We have proof of concept this team, when healthy and firing (remember, there's still 16 premiership players on the list), can not just be a top eight side, but one that stands atop the mountain at season's end.
Almost certainly won't be relevant in 2025
12. GOLD COAST
13. ADELAIDE
14. ESSENDON
15. ST KILDA
I don't believe any of these sides will be finalists in 2025. But I also don't think any will be bad enough to warrant the media's attention blowtorch. So what does that mean? They'll toil away for seven, eight, maybe nine or 10 wins, and continue jogging on the treadmill of mediocrity. If you're willing to trust one of these clubs, that has continued to fall short of expectation, be my guest.
Could learn a lot from Richmond
16. WEST COAST
How do you rebuild a football club after a period of success? Best not follow the Eagles' blueprint. Believe it or not, despite a record of 10-58 over the last three years, West Coast has just one top eight draft pick (Harley Reid) on its list. That's simply staggering. Meanwhile, the Tigers have ripped off the band-aid, sold off whatever valuable assets it had, and came out of last month's draft with a near unprecedented haul of top end talent. The Eagles will be better this year, but you have to be at least somewhat concerned about their long-term prospects.
Short-term pain, long-term gain
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
18. RICHMOND
We're probably in agreement the Kangaroos and Tigers will be the two worst teams in 2025. The clubs went a combined 5-41 this year and, if we're being honest, it's tough to see much improvement coming next campaign. With that said, North is quietly stacking an enormous amount of midfield talent while Richmond (as mentioned above) may have just rebuilt their list in one draft. There's no doubt there will be short-term pain for both, but if you nail your draft selections, we know just how quickly things can turn around.