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AFL 2025: ESPN's way-too-early predictions - Our picks for premier, Brownlow, risers, sliders, and more

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Swans pressure abysmally low in Grand Final loss (3:12)

In the biggest game of the year, the Swans turned in one of their worst performances in their history as the Lions ran over them. (3:12)

Lions to go back-to-back? Swans to lose it after another Grand Final capitulation? Who wins the Brownlow? While so much can happen through the trade and draft periods, ESPN's AFL experts have nevertheless turned their attention to 2025 for their way-too-early predictions.

Below are their ladder predictions, expected grand finalists, biggest risers and biggest sliders, as well as Brownlow and Coleman Medal winners.


Jake Michaels

Hawthorn
Brisbane
Sydney
GWS
Carlton
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Western Bulldogs

Fremantle
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Essendon
St Kilda
Adelaide
Melbourne
West Coast
North Melbourne
Richmond

Premier: The Hawks are coming ... and coming fast. Don't forget, they were the best team in the league for five months! I'd rather be a year early for this train than five minutes too late. Watch this space.

Runner up: The Giants will be wondering 'what if' all off-season after blowing a 44-point semifinal lead to eventual premier Brisbane. They bounce back in a big way in 2025.

Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos. It will be third time lucky for the Collingwood superstar, who will poll in the high 30s again to take home his first 'Charlie'.

Coleman Medal: A fully fit Charlie Curnow will remind the footy world why he's the best key forward in the game.

Biggest riser: The Hawks will take out the minor premiership, rising six spots from their 2024 finishing position. Sam Mitchell's side won more games than anyone else from Round 5 onwards and are only going to get stronger this offseason.

Biggest slider: Nobody will fall too far, but Port Adelaide drops from second to sixth as teams improve around them.

Biggest storyline: James Sicily becomes a permanent forward for the Hawks and finishes top five in the Coleman Medal.

Rohan Connolly

Geelong
GWS
Sydney
Brisbane

Collingwood
Melbourne
Hawthorn
Carlton
St Kilda
Western Bulldogs
Fremantle
Gold Coast
Essendon
Adelaide
North Melbourne
West Coast
Richmond

Premier: Geelong. The Cats are looking so likely again this might be the one summer nobody actually declares their era of success over! Seriously, though, not only has there been a significant changing of the guard at the Cattery, the likes of Holmes, Bowes, Bruhn, O. Henry, Neale, Humphries now driving this team, the one apparent weakness, midfield depth, is likely to be boosted by the arrival of one Bailey Smith. That's a pretty crucial pick-up.

Runner up: GWS. The Giants should have at least made it to a preliminary final given two costly late finals lapses, errors which a terrific coach in Adam Kingsley will be working on to eradicate. I like the scope for continued improvement in the Giants, still young enough, and who kept winning this year even when their statistical profile wasn't outstanding.

Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos. I've long had a theory that once a player polls well in the Brownlow, he'll continue to do so. Who'd dare dispute that with Daicos given his tally this year was the second-highest in history behind the winner? And I'm pretty confident this bona fide champion (still with only 70 games to his name) will keep performing at the stellar level he has to date. He probably deserves one already. I reckon he'll have one soon enough.

Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow might not have won the Coleman this year, unlike the previous two, but he wasn't necessarily a lot less consistent, averaging 2.7 goals per game compared to 2.9 and 3.1. Carlton is a heavier-scoring team these days, too. I think he can make it three next year.

Biggest riser: Melbourne. OK, vested interest here as I tipped them to win the 2024 flag. But 14th is a ridiculously low finish for a list with this much talent, and a lot went wrong on the fortune front for the Demons which (touch wood) won't happen again.

Biggest slider: Port Adelaide. It may not be a quantum drop, but the Power did finish third (post-finals) and I could easily see them missing finals at least with Dan Houston a big loss, the forward line struggling a bit and too many riches concentrated in just one (midfield) area.

Biggest storyline: Some football media person has a tiff with some other football media person. Yes, I know it shouldn't be that, but seems to be the way we're headed.

Matt Walsh

Carlton
Brisbane
GWS
Fremantle
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Sydney
St Kilda

Hawthorn
Geelong
Melbourne
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Collingwood
North Melbourne
Essendon
West Coast
Richmond

Premier: Carlton. Two finals series under the belts now, and they know what their best and worst footy looks like. They (like every premiership winning team) will need some luck in the injury department, but the talent is there.

Runner up: Brisbane. They may lose a couple of veterans in the offseason, but will regain a host of stars including Tom Doedee and Keidean Coleman, plus add consensus top five pick Levi Ashcroft to the mix. I'm always hesitent about backing clubs to go back-to-back, but I wouldn't be surprised...

Brownlow Medal: Jason Horne-Francis. Trying to look somewhere other than low-hanging fruit Daicos, JHF polled well this season and has the tools to be a gamechanger more often for the Power. He gets votes when he has more than 23 disposals, and I expect him to keep getting more footy.

Coleman Medal: Ben King. He's a good kick, and the Suns should again get better in the offseason (even though I have them bottom six again in my ladder).

Biggest riser: Carlton. Cruelled by injury, I think the Blues should really be at the top end.

Biggest slider: Geelong and Sydney. The Cats will be therabouts but I think not as strong as this season, as will the Swans; that Grand Final will hurt, much like 2023 after their 2022 loss.

Biggest storyline: Richmond denied priority assistance by the AFL as their 'hold-on-too-long' strategy was their own doing.

Jarryd Barca

Brisbane
Carlton
GWS
Gold Coast
Fremantle
Adelaide
Collingwood

Geelong
Hawthorn
Sydney
St Kilda
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne
Essendon
West Coast
Richmond

Premier: Carlton - The Blues underachieved in 2024 but the list is in good enough shape to continue contending for several seasons. Should finish top four, should host a prelim.

Runner up: Brisbane - They'll be getting some key players back in 2025, have a significant home ground advantage and won't be going away.

Brownlow Medal: Matt Rowell - He's a high contest, high clearance player who, especially based on this year's count, is now a proven poller. Not to mention I think the Suns will win more games next season, which helps his cause.

Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow - Injuries curtailed the ending to his season, and potentially hampered him for longer, but his talent is undeniable.

Biggest riser: Gold Coast - This is the first time I've ever tipped them to make finals. I have never believed in them. But now I'm bullish about their ability under Damien Hardwick and, if it wasn't for a poor away record this season, they would've pushed hard for the four. They're good enough.

Biggest slider: Port Adelaide - They overachieved in 2024 (fair play, Ken), and I've got more reasons for other teams to improve next season. Someone has to miss...

Biggest storyline: Riley Thilthorpe, after an injury-free preseason, emerges as a premier forward in the comp, kicking 50+ goals and making his first All-Australian team.