Geelong and Brisbane meet in a preliminary final for the third term in five years, the winner to face either Sydney or Port Adelaide in the 2024 AFL Grand Final.
Here are the three questions that will decide the outcome of this game:
Can the Lions back up emotionally after last weekend's extraordinary high?
There's an argument to be made Brisbane played its Grand Final last Saturday night at Engie Stadium.
You simply cannot underestimate the mental and physical toll completing that stunning 44-point comeback against the Giants will take on the playing group. From dead and buried to securing a shock preliminary final berth, the Lions' players (and fans) went through a kaleidoscope of emotions in the second half, and after such a high, you'd have to expect there will be a natural come down. The degree of that dip will likely determine the outcome of this game.
Since 1999, teams that come back to win from at least a 40-point deficit are 11-17 the following week. Team that complete that comeback and have to play interstate the following week fare even worse at 5-11.
You get the feeling there's two paths the Lions could take this week. They will either embrace being alive in September, treat this game as something of a free hit and upset the Cats, or it will become painfully clear early on they spent most of their petrol tickets last weekend.
Will Geelong opt to tag Lachie Neale?
In Saturday night's semifinal, GWS deployed Toby Bedford to Brisbane superstar Lachie Neale. Given the end result, it's easy to get sucked into thinking the tag wasn't effective, but that couldn't be further from reality.
Neale, the two-time Brownlow Medal winner, is the barometer for the Lions. If you can stop him, or slow him down, you'll go a long way to winning.
Since the start of 2022, Brisbane is a staggering 25-1 in games Neale has amassed at least 32 disposals. When he has 25 or fewer, their record is 13-12-1. When Neale has 15+ contested possessions, the Lions are 25-6. When he has 12 or fewer, they're 14-10. It's a similar story with his clearances. Brisbane wins 86% of games where he has 10+, compared to 63% when he doesn't.
FACT: Lachie Neale averages just 24.12 disposals per game against Geelong, his worst return against any other club.
Just as the Giants did, Geelong should look to shut down Neale on Saturday night. That job could be given to either Tom Atkins or the returning Tom Stewart, who have each been given the task in the past. Or does Chris Scott spring a surprise and bring in Mark O'Connor? There's no guarantee the Cats prevail if Neale's production is restricted, but, as the numbers suggest, the Lions will be awfully tough to beat if it isn't.
Can Geelong's lesser lights continue to overperform?
The lack of production from Geelong's 'bottom six' has long been discussed as a glaring weakness. But in 2024, it seems to no longer be the case, the Cats not as reliant on its stars and experienced personnel and getting great output across the board.
In their dominant qualifying final win against the Power, unheralded Shaun Mannagh, in just game 11, finished as the highest rated player on the ground. Mannagh kicked three goals from his 23 disposals, contributed another three direct goal assists, 13 score involvements, and laid five tackles in the 84-point win.
Developing key forward Shannon Neale, in game 19, also impressed with two goals and three contested marks. And then there's Tanner Bruhn and Jack Bowes, who both had 18 disposals, six marks, and hit the scoreboard.
For the most part we know what we're going to get from the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Stewart, and Max Holmes, but if the Cats continue to get these type of performances from their lesser lights, it bodes extremely well for their premiership chances. The challenge is doing it for two, and potentially three games in a row.