Each week of the 2024 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.
This week's Six Points feature some Essendon skepticism, the league's most turnover prone players, what the Hawks are doing brilliantly, and why clubs should be clambering over each other for Mac Andrew's signature.
1. Essendon will not win the premiership this year
In the footy media business, you simply don't receive credit for accuracy. Case in point, my take on Geelong after its Round 7 win over Carlton that had them top of the ladder at 7-0. I didn't buy the hype, claimed there were six sides more likely to win the premiership this year, and was roundly mocked for it.
Fast forward a month and they've lost four straight games -- something they share with only the Crows, Hawks, Eagles, Tigers, and Kangaroos -- dropping them to sixth, just one game clear of 10th. Am I getting my flowers? Of course not.
My Essendon analysis will no doubt be met with similar levels of skepticism and ridicule, but I urge you all to stick it in a time capsule and open it up on the last Saturday in September.
The Bombers, who sit second with an 8-2-1 record, have been a fun story in 2024. Fans have every right to enjoy the improvement -- particularly given the diabolical ending to last year and that lengthy finals win drought -- but those who believe they are a genuine premiership threat this season are kidding themselves.
FACT: Essendon's 104.4% is the lowest percentage for any top-two side after 11 games in AFL history.
We're almost at the mid-point of the year and Essendon does not rank top six in any of the eight offensive or defensive metrics in Champion Data's premiership report. That's something you can only say about them, the Hawks, Tigers, Kangaroos, and Eagles. Not great company.
But it goes deeper than that. As we know, to be in the mix for a flag, you must rank elite in at least one key area. The Bombers are bang average in just about everything, only slightly above the mean for midfield production and territory. That's simply not going to get it done.
And then of course there's the 'who have you beaten' argument. For Essendon, only one of its eight wins (GWS in Round 9) is against a current top eight side. The two losses and draw have all come against fellow top-eight ranked opponents.
When it comes to the likelihood of winning this year's premiership, something we can probably all agree on is Sydney being comfortably head and shoulders clear of the competition. So, who's second? I'm not too sure, but I'd argue the Bombers are closer to the 10th-best team than truly being second-best, as the current ladder suggests.
2. The AFL's biggest turnover machines
There's three ways to measure turnover-prone players. Those that turn it over the most, those that have the highest turnover-to-disposal ratio, and then those whose turnovers directly lead to the most opposition scores.
For this exercise, I'm focusing on the latter. Whose turnovers prove to be the most costly?
Champion Data has provided the answers, and some of the names may surprise you...
LISTEN: The ESPN Footy Podcast team discuss all things turnover
Blake Acres might be viewed as a valuable asset for the Blues, but he's the competition's premier turnover culprit.
Not only is Acres the most costly with turnover, he also ranks second-last in the competition for intercept scores created vs. intercepts scores conceded, coming in with a -57 differential. Put simply, he's giving up plenty but not creating much, at least from chains he launches.
3. The one stat that proves the Hawks are heading in the right direction
Hawthorn was a popular pre-season pick to be the biggest riser in 2024. After a difficult start to the season -- one we can probably put down to a plethora of injuries -- Sam Mitchell's side has struck form, winning four of its last six games. If not for Darcy Byrne-Jones' heroics at Adelaide Oval two weeks back, it would have been five wins from six games.
There are a number of key areas that stand out when analysing the Hawks and where the improvement has come from, but the most encouraging number is how they've begun to own the post-clearance groundball. This is something that should excite every Hawthorn fan.
In simple terms, post clearance ground ball is any possession won outside the immediate contest, more often than not from 50-50 situations. It's a metric which rewards toughness, work rate, and speed, not just in the midfield, but all over the ground. The 2024 Hawks have joined elite company in this area, ranking as the 20th best team all-time through the first 11 games.
Of the 19 teams that had fared better to this point of a season, 18 of them played finals and seven reached the Grand Final. Hawthorn may not be a finalist this year, but there's no doubt they are trending in the right direction under Mitchell.
4. Mac Andrew might have the highest ceiling of any young key defender we've seen
He's only played 29 games, is yet to celebrate his 21st birthday, but Mac Andrew is already proving to be as valuable to the Suns as just about any established key defender in the competition.
Andrew's season has been flying totally under the radar, but I get the feeling he's about to become a name every footy fan not only knows of, but someone they all wish played for their team.
Since making his season debut in Round 6 against the Giants, Andrew has showcased his tremendous work rate, unparalleled athleticism, and, most importantly, his mature and sublime ability to read the play as it unfolds up the ground. He ranks top four in the competition in four of the main defensive measures: marks, intercept marks, intercept possessions, and metres gained, while also proving he is more than capable of locking down on the league's best forwards.
FACT: Per Champion Data's 100x, Andrew is performing 28% better than expected for a key defender.
It's very much early days, but the raw 20-year-old has the potential to develop into one of the game's best key defenders. It won't be long before clubs begin circling in the hope to lure him away from the Suns.
5. The worst umpiring decision of season 2024, bar none
It feels an eternity ago, but it was so egregious I simply cannot let it slide and escape the wrath of Six Points. Of course, I'm referring to that 50m penalty paid against Laitham Vandermeer in the dying stages of last Thursday night's contest between the Bulldogs and Swans.
For those who missed it (or if you simply want to be angered once more), here it is:
"That's not 50."#AFLDogsSwans pic.twitter.com/PEgF12nC3b
— 7AFL (@7AFL) May 23, 2024
This type of marginally late contact occurs dozens of times per game and almost never results in a 50m penalty. Not only that, but earlier in this game Tom Papley took what he (and many) thought was a lead-up mark, only for the ball to be dislodged from a bump, and the umpire to call 'play on'. No mark was paid and obviously no 50m penalty.
So with two near identical plays, how can one be play on and the other result in a 50m penalty and certain goal? It's a total lack of consistency from one quarter to the next -- forget game to game -- and that's a fundamental flaw in officiating.
Not only that, but it cost the Bulldogs any chance of snatching the game at the death, something which looked totally on the cards when they cut the margin to just eight points with a little over four minutes to play.
6. Player abuse in the wake of busted multis is both pathetic and embarrassing
The rise of sports gambling and player specific betting markets in recent times has led to an enormous amount of criticism, abuse, and even threats, aimed at athletes all over the globe. Unfortunately, it's as prevalent as ever in the AFL.
Collingwood midfielder Jack Crisp called out the behaviour on Saturday after tallying 18 disposals in his side's draw against the Dockers.
Crisp posted a screenshot to Instagram showing a number of abusive messages he had received from disgruntled punters, along with the cheeky caption 'Gamble Responsibly'.
How much of an absolute loser do you have to be to message a footballer about missing your multi. Get a life you saddos pic.twitter.com/fxTsGztHMv
— Sam Mills (@BySamMills) May 24, 2024
If you're someone who contact players via social media to hurl abuse re busted sports bets, I've got two words for you: grow up. And seek help. Pinning your financial losses on a professional athlete is as sad as it gets. It's also the epitome of pathetic and entitled behaviour.
As Josh Dunkley wrote for ESPN in 2021, these players DO NOT care about your wagers.