BRISBANE -- As AFL fans, convincing ourselves every premier is on the brink of a dynasty is an unhealthy tendency we all share. It happens year after year, regardless of list, age profile, coaching changes, and fixture; the most recent game we watch shapes a lot of what we know, and think, about the sport.
But for Collingwood in 2024, a period of prolonged success really did feel somewhat inevitable. Under the seemingly expert tutelage of Craig McRae and the league-admired leadership of Darcy Moore, the Magpies were a popular tip among fans and media pundits to go back-to-back.
And why not? The team's best player, Nick Daicos, wasn't close to hitting his prime, Jordan De Goey had finally discovered consistency, and club icons Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom appeared as though they possessed some secret formula to defy father time forever.
Nobody could have imagined Collingwood would travel to Brisbane for its Grand Final rematch in Round 3 starring down the barrel of the worst month to begin a premiership defence in league history. And while the Magpies' 20-point win will have many declaring the reigning premier is 'back', in truth, it did little to suggest this side had actually turned a corner. Instead, the game was a tale of Brisbane's ongoing woes, primarily its attacking deficiencies, and Collingwood's ability to convert at the other end of the ground at a simply unsustainable rate.
The second term alone was enough to instill a serious degree of doubt in even the most ardent Collingwood fan. For the first time in the McRae era, the Magpies were held scoreless in a quarter of football. They were slaughtered in the trenches, lost the territory battle in astonishing fashion -- Brisbane enjoyed a 21-2 inside 50 advantage -- and had no answers for the Lions' endless barrage. The only saving grace was that despite the dominance, Brisbane continued to shoot itself in the foot and failed to establish any sort of commanding position.
Much of Collingwood's struggles through the opening three weeks could be traced to its inability to move the ball - a stark contrast to the side that played and benefited from that frenetic, no-fear game style in 2023.
The Magpies finished last season as the best team in the competition at both scoring from centre bounces and turning defensive half chains into scores. Through the first three rounds, they had plummeted to 17th in both categories. Their ranking for points per game generated from their defensive 50 had also dropped from third-best last season to 17th this year.
Against Brisbane, Collingwood made it clear from the outset they were going to be more daring and expansive. They were willing to take risks and use the corridor at all costs, something they had neglected to this point in the season, and there was little concern for the potential consequences.
Nick Daicos, who was shifted from the midfield to halfback, was involved in much of these forays forward, as was the hard-running John Noble, who returned to the side after missing last week's clash against the Saints. And while the high-risk, high-reward approach did pay dividends at times, just as often the ball was picked off by Brisbane in dangerous areas of the ground, once again leaving the back six exposed.
It's a greater concern this year given Collingwood's recent defensive struggles. En route to last year's premiership they conceded just 72.4 points per game. Already this year, scores against have blown way out to 95.5 per game, ranking them 15th in the league. They have also struggled to repel prolonged attacks, slipping from a top six defensive unit, in terms of scores per inside 50, into the bottom six.
What ultimately saved the Magpies Thursday was Brisbane's inability to punish. For large periods, the Lions bombed long aimlessly inside forward 50, almost praying for one of its talls to clunk a contested, bailout mark. As a result, they managed a shot on goal from just 37% of inside 50s, a staggering contrast to Collingwood's 51% up the other end of the ground.
Brisbane ended the night with more disposals, kicks, inside 50s, clearances, contested possessions, and marks, but it was Collingwood taking home those valuable four points. Sustainable? Not exactly. Do many of those same concerns remain? Absolutely, though the win will mask over it, at least for another week.
While it's not yet season over for Collingwood, it's one which, despite the much-needed win, continues to hang by a thread. The Magpies are one of just eight teams in league history to begin a premiership defence with a 1-3 record; just one of those sides recovered to play finals.
The uphill battle has been made even trickier by the fixture.
Collingwood face Hawthorn next weekend at a neutral venue during Gather Round, and while the Magpies are the early favourites, you cannot overlook the fact the Hawks rolled them when they last met in Round 21 last year.
Then it's the bye, a date with Port Adelaide, Anzac Day vs. traditional rival Essendon, before a showdown with the league's darlings, Carlton. It's not beyond the realms of possibility they lose more games than they win during this stretch. A 2-6 record remains on the cards.
Fast-forward to the final month of the home and away season, and the Magpies have games against Carlton (MCG), Sydney (SCG), Brisbane (MCG), and Melbourne (MCG). It doesn't get any easier.
Plenty will argue Collingwood has turned their fortunes, and season, around with a win over the struggling Lions, but we all know to be a genuine flag threat, a top four berth is simply non-negotiable. And that, at least right now, still seems a fair way out of their grasp.