Welcome to ESPN's AFL Debate Club, the column in which our writers and contributors will take one prompt from the week and put their opinion on the record. The kicker? No opinion is immune from criticism!
This week, Rohan Connolly and Jake Michaels debate the up and down Lions and whether or not they are a legitimate premiership contender in 2023.
Are you prepared to say Brisbane cannot win the 2023 AFL premiership?
Rohan Connolly: Yes I am. It's a pretty harsh call on a team sitting third on the ladder at 10-4, admittedly, but I still think, as I have during their entire resurgence since 2019, that the Lions aren't quite good enough, nor tough and resilient enough, to win a flag.
Last Friday night's win over St Kilda was the sort of dour, grinding effort of which Brisbane could use more, but let's not get too carried away with a win over a side struggling to score and for confidence generally.
The Lions had 11 more inside 50s than the Saints and took a very healthy 18 marks inside 50, yet could still only manage 12.12, even with key forward pair Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher sharing six goals. Those two can't be called the most reliably metronomic goalkickers around, and Charlie Cameron has tailed off of late, too, with only nine goals in his last six games.
The decline of Daniel Rich and Dayne Zorko as keys to Brisbane isn't unhealthy per se, but it's still asking a lot of the likes of Will Ashcroft, Darcy Wilmot and Jaspa Fletcher to be playing major roles in a finals campaign.
And as much as coach Chris Fagan would like venues not to loom large as a factor this September, for Brisbane they clearly are.
One win from the last 14 games on the MCG is a terrible strike rate. How do the Lions avoid confronting it? By finishing top two and winning two home finals so the only game they play there is the biggest of all.
But how likely is that scenario? My ladder predictor has Brisbane finishing fourth and sentenced to an MCG clash with Collingwood, and a minimum of two finals on the road. For the Lions of 2023, I think that's going to prove a bridge too far.
Jake Michaels: Absolutely not! Brisbane is a definite contender.
I get it, at times the Lions can feel a bit Jekyll and Hyde, but to say they cannot win the flag this year is a wild overreaction to the Hawthorn loss at the MCG a few weeks back.
Everyone loves to bring up two points when arguing why Brisbane can't win the flag. Let me dispel those myths right now.
No. 1 - "They can't win on the road." Well we just saw them down St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, and my ladder tells me the Saints are currently a top eight team. They're also 10-9 away from the Gabba since the beginning of last year, which is hardly horrific and in line with most non-Victorian teams which travel just about every fortnight.
No. 2 - "I don't trust them in a final." This argument had some merit a few years back when the Lions were 1-5 in September during 2019-2021, but last year they shook off that tag with impressive wins over Richmond and Melbourne -- both times as underdogs. Don't underestimate how tremendously valuable it was for them to finally get over that mental hurdle.
It's also worth remembering the Lions might not have to leave Brisbane until Grand Final day if they're able to jag a top two finish, something which is certainly within the realm of possibility. On the flip side, who in their right mind would want to play them at the Gabba?
There's no doubt they're a better team this year than they were in 2022. The addition of Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft through the midfield has lessened the load on Lachie Neale, who is rounding into peak form nicely. Speaking of form, Harris Andrews is back to his best and has formed a great defensive partnership with Jack Payne. Charlie Cameron looks like the No. 1 general forward in the game, and then there's Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood alongside him, who are both capable of match-winning performances.
Only the Magpies, Power and Demons deserve to be ahead of Brisbane in terms of premiership favouritism. Thankfully the bookmakers agree with me!