Forecasting next NCAA season for top eliminated women's teams

We're down to the final two teams in the NCAA tournament, after the UCLA Bruins and Texas Longhorns lost their semifinals Friday.

As the field winnows to one, and with the coaching carousel already spinning and the transfer portal open, it's never too early to look ahead to next season.

For the rest of the tournament, ESPN's analysts will be breaking down how the 1- and 2-seeds had their title hopes dashed, and what's next for each team. What player departures might be on the way? Who are the top incoming recruits? What transfers might fit on the roster for 2025-26?

No. 1 UCLA Bruins

Record: 34-3 (15-2 in the Big Ten)

How they were eliminated: 85-51 loss to UConn in the national semifinals

From the start, UCLA didn't look ready for the moment -- or UConn's firepower. The Bruins turned the ball over 14 times in the first half, struggled to consistently get the ball to Lauren Betts and allowed 42 points to the Huskies in the first 20 minutes. Betts did as much as she could with 26 points, but her teammates made just nine of their 34 field goal attempts; none of them scored in double figures. UCLA was never competitive after the first quarter.

Expected departures: F Janiah Barker, F Angela Dugalic

Key contributors expected back next year: Assuming there are no surprising transfer portal decisions, the Bruins will have more returning experience and depth than any top team in the country. Not only is Betts back to make another run at national player of the year, but both point guards (Kiki Rice and Elina Aarnisalo), a former All-American combo guard making her return from injury (Charlisse Leger-Walker), multiple wings (Londynn Jones, Gabriela Jaquez and Timea Gardiner) and a high school All-American (Sienna Betts) will be part of Cori Close's rotation.

Top incoming recruit: Sienna Betts (No. 3 per espnW)

Portal priorities: Close's backcourt is loaded, but she will lose some size and physicality with Dugalic and Barker. Finding another player to fill the void will be an important to putting together another complete roster.

How can this experience in the Final Four help UCLA next year? The most notable concern about the Bruins heading into college basketball's biggest showcase was how they would handle the moment -- and they didn't handle it well. Committing 14 first-half turnovers and scoring just 28 points in the first 25 minutes is not the Bruins of their first 36 games. So many players and coaches who have been to the Final Four have said how overwhelming it can be the first time, but with so much of the core expected back next season, a return trip to the Final Four is a real possibility for the Bruins. UCLA can fix what it did wrong this time. -- Charlie Creme

No. 1 Texas Longhorns

Record: 35-4 (15-1, T-first in SEC)

How they were eliminated: 74-57 loss to South Carolina in the national semifinals

Much like in two of their previous three meetings, Texas just didn't have enough offensive answers for South Carolina. Jordan Lee gave the Longhorns a nice boost with 16 points, but Madison Booker was not the same player once she picked up a third first-half foul. Without Booker at her absolute best (2-of-7 shooting in the second half), Texas could not match the Gamecocks' depth (nine different players scored for SC). Consistent offense was the Longhorns' one shortcoming this season, especially in the three losses to the Gamecocks, and it showed again in the national semifinals.

Expected departures: C Taylor Jones, G Shay Holle

Key contributors expected back next year: Led by the return of Booker, the Longhorns are loaded for another big season in 2026. If Rori Harmon elects to return, that makes Texas that much better. Laila Phelia, who had also transferred in from Michigan, and Aaliyah Moore missed most of this season with injuries and could return as well. In Bryanna Preston, Lee and Justice Carlton, Vic Schaefer has a young core that should only get better as sophomores in Austin. Six-foot-two junior Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda was playing the best basketball of her career at the end of the season. Texas, who got 27 points per game off its bench this season, could be even deeper next year.

Top incoming recruit: G Aaliyah Crump (No. 5 per espnW)

Portal priorities: Texas needs a shooter, perhaps two. Schaefer has gotten the Longhorns to the Elite Eight four times in his five years in Austin and has now gone to a Final Four, but the lack of perimeter shooting is a big reason his squad came up short of a title. No team in the country got less out of its 3-point shooting than Texas. Freshman Lee, who made 3-of-5 of her 3-point attempts in the Sweet 16 against Tennessee, could be that player, but the Longhorns could really use a veteran who can knock down deep shots and has free reign to do so.

How does Texas take the next step? The Longhorns returned to being a top-tier program as soon as Schaefer arrived and then hit another level in the past two seasons with Booker. Reaching the Final Four was progress, but if Texas is going to win a championship in the next couple of years, the semifinal loss to South Carolina illustrated its biggest need: Booker needs more help. The Longhorns need more shooters, and just one other reliable scorer will make a significant difference. When Booker went out with foul trouble in the first half and then struggled to start the third quarter, the offense just didn't look the same. Booker's talent, a great defense and offensive rebounding make up a winning formula -- but it might not be enough to create a championship. -- Charlie Creme

No. 1 USC Trojans

Record: 31-4 (17-1 Big Ten, first)

How they were eliminated: 78-64 loss to UConn in the Elite Eight

The Trojans acquitted themselves well with a good start and a third-quarter comeback against UConn, but without JuJu Watkins and against the nation's most efficient and prolific offense, they were always fighting an uphill battle. Rayah Marshall scored a season-high 23 points in her final college game, but a tough 3-for-15 shooting night from Kiki Iriafen and a combined 55 points from UConn's Paige Bueckers and Sarah Strong left the Trojans one game short of the Final Four with a loss to the Huskies for the second straight year.

Expected departures: F Kiki Iriafen, F Rayah Marshall, G Talia von Oelhoffen

Key contributors expected back next season: Everything about next season is predicated on JuJu Watkins' health and return. If she can be back by January, USC is a Final Four contender once again. With Watkins back or not, the No. 1-ranked recruiting class of a year ago will have to play more prominent roles. Kennedy Smith will lead the charge, but guards Avery Howell and Kayleigh Heckel are likely starters as well. Coached Lindsay Gottlieb leaned on that trio heavily in the NCAA tournament, and that experience should pay dividends. Malia Samuels' role could also expand as a junior.

Top incoming recruit: G Jasmine Davidson (No. 3 per espnW)

Portal priorities: Gottlieb will be looking for a veteran scorer and some interior defense. Those are the holes left behind by Iriafen and Marshall, and filling them will be necessary with or without Watkins. Another shooter to pair with Howell is also a need, and that takes on even more importance if Watkins doesn't return.

What if Watkins does not return next season? It's a possibility -- everyone heals and rehabs differently. How USC would navigate an entire season without its star will depend on whom Gottlieb is able to recruit from the portal. Without Iriafen or Watkins, the young Trojans will need some scoring help, but the win over Kansas State and the competitiveness against UConn illustrated that Smith, Howell and Heckel are a solid foundation to keep USC in the Big Ten mix. -- Charlie Creme

No. 2 TCU Horned Frogs

Record: 34-4 (16-2 in Big 12, first)

How they were eliminated: 58-47 loss to Texas in the Elite Eight

The Horned Frogs ran into a buzz saw of a Texas defense. Their usually fluid offense was disrupted for 40 minutes, scoring 30 points below their average against the Longhorns, shooting just 26.7% from the field and turning the ball over 21 times. Despite struggles from TCU's veterans -- Sedona Prince fouled out with 6:32 left in the game, while Hailey Van Lith (17 points, 3-of-15 shooting) and Madison Conner (nine points, 4-of-11 shooting) went cold -- TCU was still within 53-47 with 2:05 remaining. But in the end, Texas' defense was able to close the door on the best season in Horned Frogs history.

Expected departures: G Hailey Van Lith, C Sedona Prince, G Agnes Emma-Nnopu, G Madison Conner

Key contributors expected back next year: Donovyn Hunter and Taylor Bigby. Both transfers with eligibility remaining, Hunter and Bigby combined to average 12.1 points per game -- less than what Conner, TCU's third-leading scorer, produced (14.1 PPG). Hunter should take over full time at point guard. Bigby, once a top-30 recruit of Campbell's when he was an assistant at Oregon, also will have to take on a larger role.

Top incoming recruit: F Clara Bielefeld (Germany)

Portal priorities: This TCU team, the most successful in program history, was built largely on veteran transfers, most of whom have now exhausted their eligibility. And without any top-100 recruits heading to Fort Worth, expect Campbell to hit the portal hard again. He'll need virtually everyone -- bigs, playmakers, shooters. The Horned Frogs didn't have much depth this season, and now the top four scorers, who accounted for 58.6% of TCU's points, are gone. The experience of Van Lith, Prince and Conner, all of whom began their college careers in 2020, was how Campbell executed his game plan. To maintain that momentum, he will have to find another group of veterans to plug the roster's many holes.

What are the next steps in the growth of the program? The next few weeks will be critical. Campbell will be challenged to put together a roster talented enough to duplicate a Big 12 regular season title and conference tournament crown, plus a Sweet 16 appearance. The combination of Van Lith and Prince -- and how effectively they ran the pick-and-roll -- was a unique collaboration. But the transfer portal can help there, and Campbell has a proven track record of attracting players talent from other programs. How well he does in this cycle will determine the immediate future of the Horned Frogs. -- Charlie Creme

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils

Record: 29-8, 14-4 ACC (third, won ACC tournament title)

How they were eliminated: 54-50 loss to South Carolina in the Elite Eight

Expected departures: G Reigan Richardson

Key contributors expected back next year: F Toby Fournier, G Ashlon Jackson, G Oluchi Okananwa, F Delaney Thomas, G Jadyn Donovan, G Vanessa de Jesus.

Top incoming recruit: PG Emilee Skinner (No. 7 per espnW top 100)

Portal priorities: There really shouldn't be any big holes to fill on this team if the Blue Devils bring back everyone expected to return. That said, even with the Blue Devils bringing in a top point guard recruit, if there is a veteran transfer at that position, coach Kara Lawson might consider adding her. The key for any transfer addition: She must play defense at a very high level and get up and down the court.

Can the Blue Devils break through to the Final Four next year? It's likely Duke will enter next season as a preseason top-five team and the ACC favorite. The Blue Devils came very close to a Final Four berth this year thanks to their ability to stifle opponents with their energetic defensive style. If anything, they should be even better at that next season as their deep sophomore class moves to their junior years and ACC Freshman of the Year Fournier returns with a season of experience under her belt.

Duke is probably not your cup of tea if you like high-scoring games; Lawson's Blue Devils are very different from the Final Four teams of 1999, 2002, 2003 and 2006 under coach Gail Goestenkors. But the style Duke plays now has proved effective, and Lawson is surely ready to reach a Final Four of her own. -- Michael Voepel

No. 2 NC State Wolfpack

Record: 28-7 overall, 16-2 ACC (tied for first)

How they were eliminated: 80-73 loss to No. 3 seed LSU in the Sweet 16

The Tigers were the lower seed, but they felt like the favorite in this game: They were healthier than in recent weeks (with guard Flau'Jae Johnson back from injury) and had defeated the Wolfpack in November. Both teams have had NCAA tournament success; NC State made the Final Four last season and LSU the Elite Eight (the Tigers won an NCAA title in 2023), and both had a lot of experience back for 2024-25. But LSU senior forward Aneesah Morrow (30 points, 19 rebounds) was the biggest X factor Friday. NC State, a guard-led team, couldn't stop Morrow, who led Division I in rebounding and double-doubles this season.

Expected departures: G Aziaha James, G Saniya Rivers, G Madison Hayes

Key contributors expected back next year: Although the Wolfpack lose plenty at guard, Zoe Brooks and Zamareya Jones should make coach Wes Moore feel pretty good about his perimeter play again. And post players Tilda Trygger (6-foot-6) and Lorena Awou (6-5), both freshmen this season, return size plus more experience. Forward Maddie Cox, who will be a junior next season, had her best game of the season Friday -- 8 points and 7 rebounds -- a confidence-builder for next season.

Top incoming recruit: G Destiny "Ky'She" Lunan (No. 60 per espnW)