2024 UFL championship picks: Will Stallions cover the spread?

While the UFL is a new league, that doesn't mean we don't have some knowledge that can prove useful for bettors looking to make a couple of smart bets. Daniel Dopp and Matt Willis are here to break down what you need to know about betting on 2024 UFL championship game. 

All odds by ESPN BET.

Willis: Daniel, here we are after a wild 12-week run for the inaugural season of the UFL. We've learned a lot about these teams, spring football and, dare I say, ourselves?

Dopp: I've learned that onside kicks are for suckers, fourth-and-12 plays are the way to go, extra points are meant to be passed and beer snakes are not allowed in the house. Not once, not ever. That's where my wife draws the line. Honestly, it's been a really amazing season.

Willis: Yes, it has. On a serious note, thank you for welcoming me into this little corner of the internet. This has been a lot of fun to dig deep into the stats to try to give everybody the angle from ESPN's Stats & Information group. It's also the start of what I'm sure will be a Dopp/Willis partnership that will include our "Bluey" podcast and camping out overnight to be the first in line for "National Treasure 3"?

Dopp: I swear, if there's a Bluey/National Treasure crossover, we'll know we've all died and gone to heaven. One can only dream! But to quickly be serious, it's been awesome doing this with you every week and I couldn't have picked a better partner. But for now, wipe that tear from your eye, give me a hug and let's talk about the UFL championship!

Willis: If you've been following us all season, one of the first picks we had was the Birmingham Stallions at +300 to win it all. Here they are, winners of 10 of their 11 games this season. But standing in their way of the championship is the only team they've failed to beat this season, the San Antonio Brahmas, who went on the road to knock off the St. Louis Battlehawks in the XFL conference title game last weekend. Daniel, hypothetically, if you're holding a +300 Birmingham ticket, do you complement that with a Brahmas +135 money-line bet in this game for some insurance?

Dopp: You know what, Matt? I don't think I would take that insurance. First off, I've been "hypothetically" hanging onto this ticket for 11 weeks. It's been burning a hole in my pocket, it's that hot! The idea of taking out insurance is like pouring cold water all over my +300 ticket! Which doesn't even make sense as an analogy because if it were on fire that's exactly what I'd want you to do. And you know what, even though I know it's not going to change, I've gone back and looked at the ticket every week for 11 straight weeks just to make sure it's real. Take insurance? How dare you, sir!

Willis: Alrighty, then. The Brahmas won 18-9 against the Stallions in Week 9, but Birmingham didn't have much to play for at that point. Brahmas were +6.5 for that game but are +3 for the title game on a neutral field. I'm going to start with the total. Ten of San Antonio's 11 games this season have gone under, including eight in a row by an average of 11.2 points. Birmingham's defense is no slouch, either, allowing 18.0 points per game this season, the second fewest behind San Antonio's 15.3, one of several defensive categories the Brahmas paced the league in. Both teams lean on the run offensively and keep the clock moving. Let's get on the under 41.5 and stick with this trend.

Dopp: It's tough to feel super-confident in this Stallions team putting up 30-plus points after last week. Adrian Martinez didn't look right (they're lucky they have such a competent backup in Matt Corral to keep driving them down the field), and the team scored a defensive touchdown. Given the way the Brahmas play and some of the struggles we've seen from the Stallions lately, I'm with you on taking the under.

Willis: Next up, let's tackle the spread. The Stallions really beat up on non-playoff teams this season, winning all six of those games by nearly 14 points per game. In the five games against playoff teams (including last week), they're 4-1 with an average scoring margin of 3.2, which is nearly this week's spread.

Dopp: I'll bet that's a complete coincidence.

Willis: In those games against playoff teams, their third-down conversion rate really dropped off (55% to 34%), as did their total yards per game (387 to 303). The Stallions struggled early last week against the Michigan Panthers, but dropped the hammer and won by 13. So where am I leaning?

I'm going to really focus on the way these teams match up on the ground. Including the playoffs, Birmingham ran for a league-best 140 yards per game this season. The league's leading rusher, Martinez, had only four rushes last week while C.J. Marable did most of the damage with 77 rush yards and nearly 10 yards per carry. As good as the Brahmas' defense is, they ranked fifth out of eight teams in allowing 4.2 yards per rush during the regular season.

Dopp: We're on the same page with this one. The running game has been an emphasis with these two teams throughout the season and I'm sure it's going to be a continued focal point in the championship game. That's a big part of what's gotten them here, so why would they go away from it in the biggest game of the season?

Willis: On the flip side, the Brahmas ran for 213 yards last week, tying the most by any team this season. However, the Stallions' defense allowed a league-low 77.5 rush yards per game and the second-fewest yards per rush this season. That includes a stingy 3.3 yards per rush last week against a decent Michigan Panthers team. For those reasons, I'm going to take the Stallions -3.  

Dopp: Dance with the one that brought you. That's a motto my mother always used to say, and I'm inclined to believe she got this one right. Despite their recent struggles, I believe the Stallions are the superior team and I'm going to double down and take Stallions -3 in this one.

Speaking of doubling down, are there any props that pique your interest in this championship matchup?

Willis: Yeah, I have a few that I'm looking at from this game.

QB Chase Garbers (SA) under 200.5 pass yards (-130)

Surpassing 200 pass yards doesn't seem like a steep demand, but only three QBs (Luis Perez, E.J. Perry, Reid Sinnett) have hit that mark against Birmingham this season and two of them just had 203 (Perez and Perry). Consider taking Garbers under 1.5 pass TD (-175) as well, as only one QB has had a multi-TD game against the Stallions this season (Jordan Ta'amu in Week 4). If you parlay both of them together, you can get +178 odds combined.

QB Adrian Martinez (BHAM) over 25.5 pass attempts (-118)

Last week, Martinez had just 19 pass attempts in the win over Michigan. But in the prior five games, Martinez never had fewer than 28 pass attempts in a game and averaged 32 a game. Birmingham has transitioned to more of a passing offense in recent weeks, going from 29 rush attempts per game in their first eight games to 17 in the past three.

RB C.J. Marable (BHAM) under 14.5 receiving yards (-118)

Marable has gone over 12 receiving yards in only two of nine games this season and has been held below 10 receiving yards in three of his past four games. Last week, just three of Birmingham's 28 targets were to running backs.

RB Anthony McFarland Jr. (SA) over 8.5 rush attempts (-118)

The Brahmas routinely have a back get 10-plus carries in a game, and in his past two games played, McFarland has had 15 rushes for 82 yards and 11 rushes for 115 yards. Don't worry about how he and John Lovett will split carries. The past three times they've both played in the same game, they've each had more than nine carries.

RB Ricky Person Jr. (BHAM) to not score a TD (-114)

Don't label me as not being a "Person" person, but after running for six touchdowns in the first six weeks, Person has not scored a rushing TD since, with Marable (three) and Martinez (two) accounting for the five Stallions rushing TDs. Person had a receiving TD last week, but didn't have any during the regular season.

WR Marquez Stevenson (SA): under 35.5 receiving yards (-118)

Stevenson caught all five of his targets last week for 56 yards. However, prior to that, he went under this number in eight straight games, including being held below 10 yards in three of five games. Stevenson hasn't had more than five targets in a game since Week 4.

TE Jace Sternberger (BHAM): over 47.5 receiving yards (-102)

Over the Brahmas' past nine games, they've seen three tight ends get more than two targets in a game. Sal Cannella twice (he had 40 and 87 receiving yards) and Sternberger in the Week 8 loss, when he had seven receptions for 100 yards on nine targets. In two games since then, Sternberger has had 53 and 48 yards on just five total targets.