Dopp: I'll bring the Kit Kats, white cheddar popcorn and some Nutty Buddys! I also just learned about mixing lemonade and Kool-Aid to make a borderline illegal summer drink, but I'm not sure we're ready for that yet. Maybe next year.
Willis: OK, let's focus our energy on this weekend's games. That's not déjà vu you're feeling -- we're getting the exact same matchups in the conference championship games that we got last week. Which raises the question: How many of their cards did teams show in Week 10?
These "pre-matches" last week had a combined margin of victory of two points, thanks to a pair of late missed field goals from two kickers who had been very reliable in Ryan Santoso and national hero Jake Bates.
Dopp: It actually hurt my heart to see both of those kickers miss. The UFL has had some dominant kicking performances and I've loved rooting for the special teamers, so color me disappointed we didn't get two walk-off kicks.
Willis: I'm going to start with the Sunday XFL conference championship game, where the St. Louis Battlehawks will play the San Antonio Brahmas in front of an electrifying crowd, thanks to last week's victory. Because home-field advantage was on the line in that one, I'm inclined to believe these teams didn't hold anything back.
The total for this game is set at 44.5. I'm reminded of the scene from "The Simpsons" (available on Disney+) where a hot dog vendor follows Homer around, saying that Homer has put his kids through college. That's how I feel about Brahmas unders this season. They've hit seven straight, going under by an average of 12.2 points per game. These teams scored just 25 points last week. Let's not back off what got us here -- I'll go under 44.5.
Dopp: I think I'm with you on this one. The Brahmas are not a high-scoring team, and while I like the Battlehawks to rebound in this one, I don't think it's an offensive barrage. This Battlehawks team was still finding its rhythm with AJ McCarron back under center after missing time the previous two weeks, so I do expect him to look better in this one. What about you, Matt?
Willis: The Battlehawks are favored by three points after winning by one on their homefield last week. Their struggles on third down continued and McCarron completed only 10 of 24 passes, his only game this season held below a 50% completion rate. But on the flip side, the St. Louis running backs looked solid, especially Jacob Saylors, who has averaged nearly six yards per carry against an impressive San Antonio defense this season. McCarron, fully healthy when these teams met in Week 3 this season, went a much better 19-for-27. I think McCarron rounds back into form, and I'll back the favorite and take the Battlehawks -3.
Dopp: I'll co-sign on that. Give me Battlehawks -3 with a rejuvenated McCarron leading the way. Hopefully we don't have anymore missed kicks from here on out. I just want kickers to go out on a high note!
Willis: Let's shift to Saturday's USFL conference championship game, where Birmingham hosts Michigan. Birmingham was dominant during the early part of the season, winning by 13.7 PPG during its 6-0 start. Since then, the Stallions have gone a solid 3-1, but with only a plus-3 points differential in those four games. Daniel, who are the real Birmingham Stallions?
Dopp: The Stallions have started to look beatable, haven't they? After Birmingham finally committed to Adrian Martinez full time, this team became a runaway freight train. But that doesn't mean the Stallions didn't have their hiccups along the way, as you mentioned. Even with those bumps in the road, I think this is the most dangerous team in the UFL. Martinez is a difference-maker with his legs, Deon Cain and Jace Sternberger have been two of the best pass catchers in the league this year, and this Stallions' defense leads the league in takeaways. I'm not sure Michigan will have enough left in the tank to pull out another W.
Willis: The Panthers led the Stallions by 10 at the half and by six early in the fourth quarter last week, before the Stallions came back to win. But since Birmingham was going to host this week's game no matter what, you have to wonder what they actually pulled out. The Stallions had a solid six yards per rush last week, but Michigan really slowed their passing offense in both regular-season meetings.
If the Panthers were fully healthy, I think there would be a lot of reasons to take them getting five points, but with Bryce Perkins out and Matthew Colburn, Cole Hikutini and Marcus Simms all having injury issues, I think Birmingham will have a little too much firepower for the Panthers to keep up with. I'm cautiously taking the Stallions -5, but I'm much more comfortable taking the under 43. Birmingham's two worst performances in terms of total yards this season came against Michigan, and I think defenses rule the day here.
Dopp: Yeah, I hate being that guy, but while my heart is rooting for the Panthers, my head is hoping the Stallions pull it off so I can cash this glorious futures bet we made at the start of the season. Who knows, maybe Jake Bates puts it away this week and the Panthers sneak into the first UFL Championship after starting the season with +1200 odds. Wouldn't that be something?
Before we close this out, do you have any player props you like in this one?
Willis: Of course I have a few player props for our loyal readers, Daniel.
QB Adrian Martinez (BHAM) over 42.5 rush yds
Last week, Birmingham limited the carries for the should-be MVP, and he still ran for 41 yards on just five carries. It was his second straight week with five rushes after averaging 6.8 in the previous four games. Still, in his past six games, he's run for more than 60 yards per game and 9.8 per carry. At that rate, it'll take only five carries for him to hit this number.
If you're looking for something juicier from the Stallions, consider Jace Sternberger at +175 to score a touchdown. He's scored in two straight and four of the past eight games. He's averaging 4.5 targets per game at a 64% completion rate in those eight games, with 17% of his receptions going for touchdowns.
RB Matthew Colburn II (MICH) under 17.5 rec yds
Colburn may or may not be activated for this game, but this seems like too high of a number. He hasn't reached this number all season, as his single-game best is 16. Although he's averaging 2.8 targets per game, he's averaging only 3.4 yards per target and 5.0 yards per reception.
WR Hakeem Butler (STL) over 57.5 rec yds
In the final five games before McCarron's injury (Weeks 3-7), Butler averaged 103.6 receiving yards per game and had at least eight targets in each game. That includes the first matchup with the Brahmas, in which he had six receptions for 87 yards. Those numbers tumbled with Manny Wilkins at QB for the Battlehawks, and I'm hoping another week has helped McCarron's ankle.
WR Marquez Stevenson (SA) under 30.5 rec yds
Stevenson has hit 30 receiving yards in a game only once in the past eight games. It looks like the Brahmas will have to go with Quinten Dormady over Chase Garbers at QB. In six games with Dormady starting this season, Stevenson is averaging 2.5 receptions for 16.8 yards per game, with just a 56% reception percentage.
Willis: So that's four props, two favorites and two unders for me! Daniel, I'll see you next week for some title talk!
Dopp: Only one more week! Great job as always and a big thanks for bringing the good stuff when it comes to UFL stats and analysis, Matt!
Don't forget to love each other, be kind to yourself, enjoy the games and we'll see everyone next week!
If you still want more UFL content on top of this, check out Daniel Dopp, Skubie Mageza and Joe Gioia every Sunday night at 6:30 p.m. ET for the definitive UFL recap show! UFL Today will bring fans the top moments from the weekend, with game highlights, airing live on ESPN's YouTube, Facebook and the ESPN App, in most cases following the final game of the weekend.
Follow Dopp and Willis on X @danieldopp and @WillisOnNascar.
