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Daniel Dopp and Matt Willis break down everything there is to know about betting on Week 4 of the UFL. The duo will be previewing the weekly slate every Friday throughout the season.
Dopp: Dudes! Week 3 in the UFL proved to be just as exciting as every other week. We saw the most passing yards ever in a UFL game by Adrian Martinez (334), we watched EJ Perry and Marcus Simms connect on a 60-plus yard TD for the second week in a row as the Michigan Panthers defied everyone's expectations by starting the season 2-1, and we got to see the alternative onside kick play again. It was another awesome week in the UFL! Willis: Daniel, Week 4 is upon us. And must I say, I got quite a kick out of Week 3. Get what I did there? It might not be the most effective marketing campaign, but come to the UFL to see the kicking. 19-for-19 on field goal attempts last week and these weren't chippies. The average distance of these 19 makes was a little more than 43 yards. Five of them went 50-plus. Dopp: I didn't even mention the kicking! Jake Bates crushed another from 55 yards this week and we had a game winner from Renegades kicker Matthew McCrane after that alternative onside kick I mentioned. This really feels like it should be called the Kicker Football league if this trend continues. Willis: But that wasn't the only amazing trend last weekend. All four games went over (remember when all four Week 1 games went under?). Those four games last weekend went over by an average of 12 points per game. And the third-down conversion rate across the UFL last week was 56%. Daniel, are either of these trends maintainable? Believable? Conceivable? Dopp: I'll tell you what, seeing teams have the ability to score 8-9 points off of a touchdown, convert the 4th & 12 to keep the ball, and drive down the field to score again before time expires makes me wonder if we're underselling the high-scoring potential of these games based on the current rules. I don't think that 12 points is sustainable, that's obviously a huge number and that gap will come down, but if you told me that games went over more often than not this season, I don't think I'd be surprised. Willis: Only time will tell! Okay, the headline game of the weekend features the lone undefeated UFL team, the 3-0 Birmingham Stallions, hosting the D.C. Defenders. D.C. trailed by 10 last week against Arlington with about two minutes to go, but found a way to pull out the victory like you've mentioned, but where my head is at here is the dominant display from the Stallions defense. They've had 15 sacks over the last two games, allowing 42 rushing yards per game. Dopp: They've been the clear-cut standout defense in the UFL over the last two weeks. The Stallions got after Case Cookus so much last week, that his coach pulled him to save him for the rest of the season. I believe the words he used were, "You're getting killed out there!" Willis: The defense has only allowed opponents to get into the red zone six times this season and haven't allowed a TD on any of those drives. Birmingham runs the ball effectively, and I can see the clock tick-tick-ticking away in this game, which is why I like under 47. Dopp: In spite of all the overs talk we had earlier in the column, I'm following the defense and taking the under here as well. What's next, Willis? Willis: Do I have a barnburner for you: 0-3 Arlington Renegades vs. 0-3 Houston Roughnecks in a battle that only the state of Texas is big enough to handle. Not all 0-and-3's are created equal here. The Renegades are coming off losses of three and one point, while Houston is shuffling its roster following a 14-point loss to Michigan. Dopp: The Roughnecks looked pretty rough, last week. EJ Perry had his way with the defense both through the air and with his legs. This team needs to fix a lot of things if they're going to put any wins on the board. Willis: Arlington was the better team against D.C. last week, up 10 with two minutes to go. No turnovers over the past two weeks. The Renegades convert on a league-best 63% of their third downs this season. They probably can't keep that up for the whole season, but Houston has the worst third-down defense in the league, so I like the Renegades -3 in this game. Dopp: Sadly, it seems like an 0-4 start is in the books for Houston, I'm with you on taking the Renegades at -3. What about the game in Detroit this week? You know I'm interested in that one. Willis: Two 2-1 teams square off in the Alamodome with the Michigan Panthers and San Antonio Brahmas. The Brahmas got a bit of bad news when starting QB Chase Garbers sustained a season-ending injury. However, it was a tight battle in the preseason and Quinten Dormady should be able to step into that role. Last season in the XFL, Orlando averaged nearly 24 points per game in Dormady's starts, and over the final six weeks of the season, Dormady threw nine touchdowns against just three interceptions. In the three games he started and played the majority of the game, he averaged 291 passing yards per game. Dopp: I gotta be honest, I don't love betting a team when I haven't seen the QB play at all this season, but those numbers still seem promising. What about the total for this game, with Garbers out, where did it land? Willis: I think the total, now down to 41, has overreacted to Garbers injury. I don't know who the real Michigan Panthers are at this point. They scored 15.5 PPG in games against St. Louis and Birmingham, the two UFL title favorites. They scored 34 against the worst team in the league in Houston. They're probably in-between, but I think that total is way too low and I'll take over 41. Dopp: I'm a Panthers fan and I've loved seeing the team fight through lowered expectations, but this will be a big test for them. Can they take advantage of a team with a big question mark at the quarterback position now? I'm also all in on Jake Bates continuing his dominant run as the best kicker in the UFL and doing his part to help us hit the over in this one. As always, you're amazing Matt! Thanks for these insights! Don't forget to love each other, be kind to yourself, enjoy the games and we'll see you next week! If you still want more UFL content on top of this, check out Daniel Dopp, Skubie Mageza and Joe Gioia every Sunday night at 6:30 p.m. ET for the definitive UFL recap show! UFL Today presents the top moments from the weekend, including game highlights, airing live on ESPN's YouTube, Facebook and the ESPN App. Follow Dopp and Willis on X @danieldopp and @WillisOnNascar.
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