While the UFL is a new league, that doesn't mean we don't have some knowledge that can prove useful for bettors looking to make a couple smart bets. Daniel Dopp and Matt Willis are here to break down everything there is to know about betting on the UFL.
And the duo will be here every single Friday to preview the weekly slate all season long! Without further ado let's get started. Take it away Dopp.
Dopp: Ha! We went from a Men at Work reference to a peeps reference, and I couldn't be more invested in your hot takes. I'm also pro peeps. What's with people hating marshmallows and sugar? Anyways, I definitely locked up my futures bet after writing this article with you, so hopefully our readers did as well! I'll tell you what though, our buddy "Not Cool" Keith Lipscomb was spot on in our pre-production meeting about considering the unders in Week 1. I know history didn't favor the "take the unders in Week 1" play, but it would've panned out!
Willis: Sure would've! The average game total for Week 1 games was 41.5, and all four games went under, averaging a combined 36.0 points per game. There's some evidence that teams scored more than they should have as well. There are no kicked extra points in this league, rather, teams have the option to go for a one, two or three-point conversion from the two, five or 10-yard line. Teams went 10-for-15 on these post-TD conversion attempts in Week 1 (regardless of length), averaging one point per attempt.
That outperformed what we saw with the same rule system in the 2023 XFL season. Teams converted on 38.6% of their attempts for the season, averaging 0.68 points per try (it was the same 0.68 average in Week 1 of that season). While 0.32 less might not seem like much, it's a point every three touchdowns. Considering the Week 1 Birmingham-Arlington game went under by a half-point, that's a meaningful number.
Dopp: I was also reminded of how quickly points can be put on the board in the UFL. A fully realized three-point touchdown conversion means teams can put nine points on the board with a single score. Add in the clock stoppages under two minutes, helping to extend the clock on those final drives. Plus, teams can go for an alternative "onside kick" which is done quite differently in the UFL. Instead of trying a play that was converted 4.9% of the time in the NFL, teams can try a 4th and 10 play from the 25-yard line. And while 4th and 10 is still a gamble, teams going for it on 4th and 10 converted at a 29% rate in the NFL. That means teams were almost six times more likely to convert in that scenario than they were in a traditional onside kick. Imagine being able to score a nine-point play and turn around with the momentum at your back so you can go for the onside kick as an actual, convertible offensive play, rather than a kick that's just a series of random bounces you can't control? All that to say, the UFL has set it up so that teams have a better chance of scoring points in bunches and I freaking love it!
Alright, we went 1-1 in Week 1, so we'll try and improve upon that here in Week 2. Willis, what's catching your eye now that the lines are out?
Willis: So, I'm going to start by taking the under 41.5 in the Roughnecks-Defenders matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Roughnecks held the Memphis Showboats to 1.7 yards per rush and 4.9 yards per pass attempt in their Week 1 loss. Meanwhile the Defenders, in their Week 1 upset loss, averaged just 4.5 yards per pass attempt, and still need to figure things out without their top 2023 rusher in Abram Smith, and Jordan Ta'amu's top two targets.
Dopp: The Roughnecks were not joking around when it came to the ground game! I noticed that while watching the game but didn't realize they held the Showboats under two yards per rush and five yards per pass attempt. That's some knockout defense right there. I wish their offense was a little stronger, because I'd want to consider more than just the under here but given what you've laid out, I think you're in the right spot here. I'm with you on taking under 41.5 in this one.
Let me ask you about another team that caught my eye last week. The St. Louis Battlehawks, led by AJ McCarron came up just short against the Michigan Panthers, but it feels like they left a lot of points on the field. I saw a lot of rust from that offense, but I also saw a ton of talent that should play better in future weeks. What are your thoughts on the Battlehawks after a disappointing Week 1?
Willis: I think there might be an overreaction to the Battlehawks' opening week struggles. Remember there's no preseason games in the UFL, so teams are still working out the wrinkles. After starting with punts on their first four drives the Battlehawks began clicking on offense, scoring two touchdowns and a field goal with one turnover on downs on their final five drives. St. Louis has the best home crowd in the league and are only laying five points at home against an Arlington Renegades team that was outclassed by Birmingham in Week 1.
Dopp: Another bet we're in agreement on. With the number being under a touchdown, I really like the Battlehawks in this one given the potential they showed and the legitimate homefield advantage. Let's dive into another matchup Stallions vs. Panthers. Last week we saw sub-par QB play from Panthers signal caller EJ Perry, but he did use his legs to get into the end zone twice and the Panthers also had two more rushing TDs from their running backs. I'm not sure I'm ready to take the Panthers in this one, but I could be looking at the point total in this one given the offenses at play. Where are you at in this matchup, Willis?
Willis: The Stallions and Panthers averaged at least six yards per offensive play in Week 1, so I like the total going over 41.5. Birmingham showed no problem running the ball in Week 1 against Arlington, with two of the three players in the league to run for at least 50 yards. And Michigan's Wes Hills was the league's top rusher last week with 85 yards on 11 carries. Both teams averaged at least 4.8 yards per rush in Week 1 (no other team even reached 4.0) and I could see both moving the ball effectively again in Week 2.
And for our last game, San Antonio picked up an impressive win in Week 1 over the Defenders. This line opened -1.5, but I'll stick with it at -2. Despite the Brahmas impressive Week 1 win, I think there's even room for improvement after they went 1-for-8 on third down. That's bound to improve but this is as much a pick against Memphis as it is a pick for the Brahmas. Memphis overperformed on third down (9-for-15) and had a league-worst 3.6 yards per offensive play. They also got less than 0.2 yards per rush from their running backs in Week 1 and now have to face a defensive-minded coach in Wade Phillips this week.
Dopp: Look at that! Week 2 is already under way, and we've got a ton of useful insight from you, Matt. I didn't realize the Brahmas were so bad on third downs last week, which means there's definitely room for improvement. You know, speaking of third downs, I kind of miss the ref carrying the chains out to see if it's going to be a first down. There's a suspense or build up that you miss when you just get the overhead 4K shot, but hey, I'm not complaining because the UFL gave us plenty of fun in Week 1 and I'm sure that's going to continue in Week 2.
Don't forget to love each other, be kind to yourself, enjoy the games and we'll see you next week!
If you still want more UFL content on top of this, check out Daniel Dopp, Skubie Mageza and Joe Gioia every Sunday night at 6:30 p.m. ET for the definitive UFL recap show! UFL Today will bring fans the top moments from the weekend, with game highlights, airing live on ESPN's YouTube, Facebook and the ESPN App, in most cases following the last game of the weekend.
Follow Dopp and Willis on X @danieldopp and @WillisOnNascar.
