CFP betting reaction: Does the uncertainty around the Big 12 offer betting opportunity?

The latest College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings have made things interesting entering Week 13. As teams jockey for position in the final weeks of the season, we've seen dramatic swings in both rankings and odds. From BYU's surprising tumble to Tennessee's precarious position -- and the wide-open race for the Big 12 championship -- this week's movements offer a fascinating glimpse into the volatile nature of college football's postseason picture.

Here are the biggest movers and the betting implications that have emerged from the latest rankings:

All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET. 

Big movers down the rankings

No. 14 BYU (No. 6 last week): BYU's ranking behind SMU (No. 13) has sparked controversy because of the head-to-head result. BYU defeated SMU on the road  and has one ranked win (against Kansas State), while SMU has none. This inconsistency in the rankings has generated significant discussion.

The Cougars' dramatic eight-spot drop was primarily due to their 17-13 loss to Kansas last weekend, ending their undefeated season. Kansas, despite showing improvement, is not considered a top-tier Big 12 opponent. This drop indicates that the committee factored in BYU's previous close wins (18-15 vs. SMU, 38-35 vs. Oklahoma State, and 22-21 vs. Utah) in its decision.

Betting odds have also shifted significantly, with BYU moving from +100 to +300 to make the playoff, and -130 to -450 to miss. However, BYU remains the highest-ranked Big 12 team and the fifth-highest-ranked projected conference champion. The Cougars still control their Big 12 title race outcome, with a conference championship appearance likely if they win out.

Week 13 presents a challenge, however, with BYU as 3-point underdogs to Arizona State. While there might appear to be value in BYU at +300 to make the playoff, given its 39% chance according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), it's a high-risk bet considering the current ranking and upcoming challenges.

Ultimately, there's limited value on either side of the playoff odds. For those favoring BYU, backing it at +125 to beat Arizona State might be more appealing. Caution is advised given the teams' opposing trajectories. The safer approach might be to avoid these bets altogether and wait for clearer value opportunities to emerge.

No. 11 Tennessee (No. 7 last week): Tennessee's 31-17 loss to Georgia impacted its standing. With only UTEP and Vanderbilt remaining on their schedule, the Volunteers have limited opportunities to impress the committee because of the relatively weak strength of these opponents.

Despite dropping to No. 11, Tennessee's path to the playoff remains open. ESPN's playoff predictor optimistically gives the Volunteers an 83% chance of making the playoff, assuming victories against UTEP and Vanderbilt. However, this projection seems at odds with the committee's current ranking.

The betting odds reflect this uncertainty, though. At -135 to make the playoff, there might appear to be value given ESPN's high projection. However, the committee's ranking suggests these odds might be overly optimistic.

The +105 odds for Tennessee to miss the playoff could present better value. This bet aligns more closely with Tennessee's current ranking and the committee's perspective. The significant shift in odds from last week underscores the increased uncertainty surrounding Tennessee's playoff chances.

Betting consideration: Arizona State +350 to win the Big 12 Championship

In Week 6, I suggested backing Colorado at 16-1 to win the Big 12 Conference after three straight wins, including a 38-31 overtime win against Baylor. 

Considering that wager, the Arizona State +350 bet becomes an intriguing complementary option. Here's the potential scenario:

In Week 13, Arizona State is favored by three points at home against BYU. A BYU loss would damage its Big 12 championship game prospects. If the Sun Devils defeat the Cougars, their chances of making the championship game would increase to 7.04%, up from 2.64% before their win against Kansas State.