Earlier, we released Mel Kiper's and Todd McShay's latest mock drafts. As we get closer to draft day, experts are zeroing in on where they believe picks will land but what might surprise you is just how much they disagree. How is it that one draft guru has a guy at No. 1 and another has him at No. 17? So we charted it out.
The process helps us with three things:
• Assigning draft value. If 10 experts drafted today, who rates highest? Sounds like an actual war room, yes?
• Creating an agreement index. By calculating the standard deviation of likely draft positions among experts, we can determine who is a "safe pick" at No. 20, and who is a "reach" at No. 10. The lower the agreed number, the closer the consensus.
• Finding a range. If one expert has a pick set for No. 5 overall and another has him in the No. 28 spot, it's a good indicator that a lot of mystery still surrounds the guy.
Our pool includes Kiper and McShay, plus draft experts from CBS, Fox, the NFL Network and Yahoo! Sports. Conclusions after the chart. All second-round projections are given a No. 35 pick standing.
The expert rankings are for ESPN Insiders.
Updates will follow the shifting sands of opinion each week.
Conclusions
1. Matthew Stafford: Aside from Fox, most agree he's No. 1, perhaps seduced by the fact that Detroit spent a lot of time with Stafford at the combine in Indy.
2. Jason Smith: J-Smooth is quotable -- "When I'm on the field, I take a lot of pride in physically assaulting somebody" -- and combines brute strength (35 reps at 225 pounds) and agility. The former tight end blocked in a spread offense at Baylor and gave up zero sacks.
3. Aaron Curry: The most agreed-upon player in the draft. An agreement index of zero, with all experts placing him as the third pick. Need aside, he is considered by most to be the best overall talent, an instant starter. If he drops past No. 3, he's a steal.
4. Eugene Monroe: Of six experts, nobody sees him dropping past No. 6. His value index assures him of top-10 status. The consensus second-best offensive tackle, behind Smith.
5. B.J. Raji: Raji is a mystery, at least within the top 10. He could fall outside of it, but with an average rating more than a half-point higher than Crabtree's, he's still a supreme prospect. His 32-inch arms are short for a DT, but he's the best run-stuffer here.
6. Michael Crabtree: There is almost no variance on Crabtree, a signal that despite surgery, he's still highly thought of. But he was at one time a possible No. 1 overall, and that's no longer the case. He's universally top-10, but only CBS has him as high as No. 4, near where everybody had him previously. T.J. Houshmandzadeh cost Crabtree some dough.
7. Brian Orakpo: It's either Cleveland at No. 5 or Green Bay at No. 9 for the last of what we'd call a consensus top-10 pick. Orakpo describing his game: "A versatile guy is a guy who can be very versatile." He'll need it. Both of those teams are in a 3-4 defense now.
8. Mark Sanchez: A massive range (16) and agreement index (6.71) on such a high pick says scouts and experts are still extremely mixed on Sanchez. A possible No. 1 who could fall to No. 17? Reminds us of Aaron Rodgers, which might be the issue. Just one year of starts (Stafford has 39) tells some that Sanchez needs time to marinate on a bench.
9. Andre Smith: Seduction alert: We recall a player who had all the physical tools to be No. 1 but lost some points on character around the draft: Mr. Warren Sapp. All experts now have Smith at No. 10 (San Fran) or No. 13 (Redskins). Low agreement index (1.64) says one of the two is almost certain.
10. Malcolm Jenkins: Jenkins is a peculiar pick, a potential lockdown corner with speed issues (4.55 in Indy) or a solid coverage safety who can tackle. Experts have him as a possible top-10 reach at 11.8, or a late-teens steal.
11. Aaron Maybin: Another defensive end who most think can adapt to a 3-4, he'll land between 10 and 20 overall. The next best thing to Orakpo in all eyes.
12. Everette Brown: As far as we can tell, Brown must have toilet-papered Mel's house. Aside from Kiper, his agreement index would be off the charts as a solid late top-10/early-teens pick. Instead, Mel has him at No. 30.
13. Jeremy Maclin: Clearly, some experts have information saying the Raiders are in love with Maclin at No. 7. If you're the Bears, dying for a receiver at No. 18 and not convinced Heyward-Bey is the answer, three of four experts say, "You better trade up."
14. Michael Oher: You know the back story on Oher. Kiper doesn't bite. All agree he's a solid pick in the teens, Kiper nearly drops him from the first round. Still a minor mystery.
15. Brian Cushing: Solid consensus on his status (16.3) as a late-teens pick. There's a low range and much agreement (5.17) at this point. He's a steal at No. 25, where two experts have him landing with Miami.
16. Rey Maualuga: A top-20 pick on every board but Kiper's. Interesting that he was considered the better player, but Cushing is grading out better. Still a solid agreement index at 5.32.
17. Tyson Jackson: The LSU defensive end is a really tight first-round consensus as high as No. 12 to Denver, and then Yahoo! drops him out of the first. Baffling. He's still valued at 18.5, and his agreement index is strong minus that outlier.
18. Vontae Davis: Everybody agrees he's a first-round pick. He has a solid agreement index of 5.92 and is valued at 19.3 on average. We're shocked if he's not gone by No. 25, to Miami.
19. Darrius Heyward-Bey: The combine star proves that 40 times don't lie. He ran a 4.3 and has been in the first round ever since. Still, he wasn't super productive at Maryland, and teams that have been burned by pure speed guys will stay away. That said, we're stunned that his agreement index is a lovely 3.77, and nobody sees him falling past No. 25 to Miami. (Which is weird, since he's a Ted Ginn clone already.)
20. Peria Jerry: There's total agreement that he's solidly in the first round (avg. 20.8, index 4.17), falling no lower than Indy at No. 27. They could use more depth on the D-line.
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